Diff thread oct 29th to Nov 12th picks are closed!! With a bonus reward.

[philipma1957]

-1.26% to  -1.50%   Tupsu
-1.01% to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% HerbPean

+0.76% to +1.00% lolxxxx
+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm
+1.26% to +1.50% wlefever
+1.51% to +1.75% dukeneptun
+1.76% to +2.00% isvicre
+2.01% to +2.25% cakir
+2.26% to +2.50% Zz
+2.51% to +2.75% The Young Turk
+2.76% to +3.00% DanDan
+3.01% to +3.25% ACAB
+3.26% to +3.50% DanielRo
+3.51% to +3.75% kripto para
+3.76% to +4.00% ingiltere
+4.01% to +4.25% edonkey
+4.26% to +4.50% adaseb
+4.51% to +4.75% ezeminer
+4.76% to +5.00% VirosaGITS
+5.01% to +5.25% smiletyson
+5.26% to +5.50% Notlist3d
+5.51% to +5.75% Biodom
+5.76% to +6.00% tss
+6.01% to +6.25% LGD2Business
+6.26% to +6.50% d57heinz
+6.51% to +6.75% Questor
+6.76% to +7.00% Last of the V8s
+7.01% to +7.25% wpt1wpt1
+7.26% to +7.50% sloopy
+7.51% to +7.75% Kexkey

+8.01% to +8.25% RichBC
+8.26% to +8.50% freedomno1

+9.51% to +9.75% zebedee


Note I got a pm asking me to put in a pick before the picks started.

lets say I was asked

  " can you pick  x.xx% to x.xx% in advance for me? ? "

I can not do this it is not fair to the others.

I am the only one that puts in a pick in advance and it is always


 -1.01% to -1.25% philipma1957

This was done last year because of  the member

 "Seriouscoin" I have kept my pick up because it worked to still his nasty posts.

 So other then mine:

 I won't do any advance reservations.


 Please do not pm me and ask for them.

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

[suchmoon]

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

I like it. We can simplify the picks too. Instead of expecting +3.01 to +3.25, +3.26 to +3.50 etc the picks can be simply:

+3.0 phil
+3.1 suchmoon
+3.2 edonkey's cat

etc.

which would easily and intuitively translate to:

+3.00 to +3.09
+3.10 to +3.19
+3.20 to +3.29

etc.

Basically you guess the percentage to one decimal place A.B and you win if the actual percentage ends up being anything that starts with your number i.e. A.Bx

Just need to figure out the 0.00 situation. Perhaps have the whole -0.09 to +0.09 range as a single pick. This one would have a higher chance to win.

[Mikestang]

+7.76% to +8.00% Mikestang

[philipma1957]

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

I like it. We can simplify the picks too. Instead of expecting +3.01 to +3.25, +3.26 to +3.50 etc the picks can be simply:

+3.0 phil
+3.1 suchmoon
+3.2 edonkey's cat

etc.

which would easily and intuitively translate to:

+3.00 to +3.09
+3.10 to +3.19
+3.20 to +3.29

etc.

Basically you guess the percentage to one decimal place A.B and you win if the actual percentage ends up being anything that starts with your number i.e. A.Bx

Just need to figure out the 0.00 situation. Perhaps have the whole -0.09 to +0.09 range as a single pick. This one would have a higher chance to win.

does this fix it? been drinking watching the world series so my math can slip a bit.


-0.2         -0.20 to -0.11
-0.1         -0.10 to -0.01
 0.0        +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1       +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2       +0.20 to +0.29


those are all equal correct?  

^^^
I like the above not sure about the blue below


     we can go from    -10 to +10


I simply make a list   with all ranges.  if we drop under -10 or over + 10 we roll the prize over.

if  no one picks a winner inside    -10 to + 10 we roll the prize over.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

10-29-2015    153 blocks + 9
10-30-2015    167 blocks + 23     so +32 blocks
10-31-2015     149 blocks +5         +37
11-01-2015     150 blocks +6         +43

we are a bit slower on the first day of the  weekend
and still okay for sunday



Bitcoin Difficulty:   62,253,982,450
Estimated Next Difficulty:   65,986,943,064 (+6.00%)
Adjust time:   After 1386 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):   493,066,155 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.4 minutes
3 blocks: 28.4 minutes
6 blocks: 56.7 minutes





we have 630 blocks made should be  587 so we are plus     +7.32%

[valkir]

oups too late for this one 

[mavericklm]

Estimated Next Difficulty:    65,891,692,097 (+5.84%)
Adjust time:    After 1375 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):    499,238,409 GH/s



Also cold weather is getting in:  Temperatura acum: -3˚C


The .1 range seems fine!

[suchmoon]

does this fix it? been drinking watching the world series so my math can slip a bit.


-0.2         -0.20 to -0.11
-0.1         -0.10 to -0.01
 0.0        +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1       +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2       +0.20 to +0.29


those are all equal correct?  

I think they are. It's a bit less convenient on the negative side since you have to remember that -0.2 goes to -0.11 and not to -0.29 but we're less likely to use those negative ranges so we should be ok.

[ezeminer]

does this fix it? been drinking watching the world series so my math can slip a bit.


-0.2         -0.20 to -0.11
-0.1         -0.10 to -0.01
 0.0        +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1       +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2       +0.20 to +0.29


those are all equal correct?  

I think they are. It's a bit less convenient on the negative side since you have to remember that -0.2 goes to -0.11 and not to -0.29 but we're less likely to use those negative ranges so we should be ok.

what about like zero is a double prize again, but then it would go

-0.2     -0.2 to -0.11
-0.1     -0.1 to -0.01
0          0
0.1       0.01 to 0.1
0.2       0.11 to 0.2

thus simplifying it

[Lituation]

That filled up real quick. It seems like this speculation thread is very popular now.

+8.51% to +8.75% Lituation

I prefer 0.25 range than 0.10, because it's already too hard to guess difficulty. Let's take a look at previous thread, he won by 0.01 points.

[philipma1957]

-1.26% to  -1.50%   Tupsu
-1.01% to -1.25% philipma1957
-0.76% to -1.00% HerbPean

+0.76% to +1.00% lolxxxx
+1.01% to +1.25% mavericklm
+1.26% to +1.50% wlefever
+1.51% to +1.75% dukeneptun
+1.76% to +2.00% isvicre
+2.01% to +2.25% cakir
+2.26% to +2.50% Zz
+2.51% to +2.75% The Young Turk
+2.76% to +3.00% DanDan
+3.01% to +3.25% ACAB
+3.26% to +3.50% DanielRo
+3.51% to +3.75% kripto para
+3.76% to +4.00% ingiltere
+4.01% to +4.25% edonkey
+4.26% to +4.50% adaseb
+4.51% to +4.75% ezeminer
+4.76% to +5.00% VirosaGITS
+5.01% to +5.25% smiletyson
+5.26% to +5.50% Notlist3d
+5.51% to +5.75% Biodom
+5.76% to +6.00% tss
+6.01% to +6.25% LGD2Business
+6.26% to +6.50% d57heinz
+6.51% to +6.75% Questor
+6.76% to +7.00% Last of the V8s
+7.01% to +7.25% wpt1wpt1
+7.26% to +7.50% sloopy
+7.51% to +7.75% Kexkey
+7.76% to +8.00% Mikestang
+8.01% to +8.25% RichBC
+8.26% to +8.50% freedomno1
+8.51% to +8.75% Lituation

+9.51% to +9.75% zebedee


Note I got a pm asking me to put in a pick before the picks started.

lets say I was asked

  " can you pick  x.xx% to x.xx% in advance for me? ? "

I can not do this it is not fair to the others.

I am the only one that puts in a pick in advance and it is always


 -1.01% to -1.25% philipma1957

This was done last year because of  the member

 "Seriouscoin" I have kept my pick up because it worked to still his nasty posts.

 So other then mine:

 I won't do any advance reservations.


 Please do not pm me and ask for them.

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

[philipma1957]

oups too late for this one  

we still have some 8's and 9's left or even a 10

______________________________________________________________________
_______________________________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________

That filled up real quick. It seems like this speculation thread is very popular now.

+8.51% to +8.75% Lituation

I prefer 0.25 range than 0.10, because it's already too hard to guess difficulty. Let's take a look at previous thread, he won by 0.01 points.

it will be harder to win with a 0.10 range,but and here is the key we are still keeping it free to enter. So why not allow for more people to join.  With coin price rising it is a good idea.

If coins drop back to 200-220 and interest is lost we could increase back to 0.25 range

also we will start at block 600 not 300 which should help a picker drop real high or real low guesses

______________________________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
______________________________________________________________________

does this fix it? been drinking watching the world series so my math can slip a bit.


-0.2         -0.20 to -0.11
-0.1         -0.10 to -0.01
 0.0        +0.00 to +0.09
+0.1       +0.10 to +0.19
+0.2       +0.20 to +0.29


those are all equal correct?  

I think they are. It's a bit less convenient on the negative side since you have to remember that -0.2 goes to -0.11 and not to -0.29 but we're less likely to use those negative ranges so we should be ok.

what about like zero is a double prize again, but then it would go

-0.2     -0.2 to -0.11
-0.1     -0.1 to -0.01
0          0
0.1       0.01 to 0.1
0.2       0.11 to 0.2

thus simplifying it

Leaning towards first choice with no bonus for 0
I do think we will have rollovers more often since there will be 200 ranges from -10 to +10
vs 80 ranges.
not to mention you can go lower or higher then -10 to +10

[RichBC]

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

Why not open picks early & close them late. There are a lot more picks with 0.1 and you only have one shot. So you would then have the additional gamble of choosing between going in early to get the slot you want v waiting for more information before choosing? I think delaying the start might make for a bigger rush on opening?


Rich

[philipma1957]

I like Kexkey's idea of smaller ranges a lot.  along with making picks run from 600 to 1200 vs 300 to 1000

 right now -10 to +10 IS ABOUT  80 slots

-10 to + 10 would be 200 slots.

realistically at block 600 -10 or +10 would be esay to rule out so your logical picks would be  well under the 200 between -10 to +10

right now -10 to -2 are very unlikely so between -2 and +10 are only around 48 ranges under the new rules it would be more like 120 ranges.

opinions are welcome

Why not open picks early & close them late. There are a lot more picks with 0.1 and you only have one shot. So you would then have the additional gamble of choosing between going in early to get the slot you want v waiting for more information before choosing? I think delaying the start might make for a bigger rush on opening?


Rich

good concept.  
we could try both in consecutive adjustments.
 then a quick vote as to which is better.

and on the brighter side coins are up to 338 I sold 300 usd worth about .89 this morning.  That is another month of power.  Since the rise of price I sold 1800 usd about six coins.
That is either the price of 6 months power for me or the price of one of my 3 s-7's.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   they have us at (+4.64%)  I have us over 7%
Bitcoin Difficulty:   62,253,982,450
Estimated Next Difficulty:   65,141,275,089 (+4.64%)
Adjust time:   After 1344 Blocks, About 9.0 days
Hashrate(?):   480,823,374 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   7:40 (1.6 minutes ago)

From sept 4 to nov 2
price has jumped from 231 to 338  that is 46.32%

diff has jump from 56,957,648,455 to around 66,000,000,000 that is    15.87%

So diff could move real hard or maybe not very interesting time to be a miner.

[notlist3d]

*snip

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty   they have us at (+4.64%)  I have us over 7%
Bitcoin Difficulty:   62,253,982,450
Estimated Next Difficulty:   65,141,275,089 (+4.64%)
Adjust time:   After 1344 Blocks, About 9.0 days
Hashrate(?):   480,823,374 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   7:40 (1.6 minutes ago)

From sept 4 to nov 2
price has jumped from 231 to 338  that is 46.32%

diff has jump from 56,957,648,455 to around 66,000,000,000 that is    15.87%

So diff could move real hard or maybe not very interesting time to be a miner.

The price is what surprises me so much.  We are doing really good in a sort period of time. I thought we would see a big sell off at 300... and we saw a little but not massive it kept going up in value.

Now to be looking close to 240 is a pretty big deal.  If we hit 345 is my number I now want to see.  That will be 50 percent jump from 230 in not a very long time at all.  It's a good time to be a miner.

[suchmoon]

So diff could move real hard or maybe not very interesting time to be a miner.

For the difficulty to move by something like 10-20% you would need 50-100 PH/s of hardware to be deployed and that isn't easy or cheap. With the uncertainty of the block reward halving coming up in just a few months (July-ish next year) we will probably see the difficulty lagging behind this price rally and we will probably see a price correction too. Or we'll all be rich, I'm fine with that too 

[philipma1957]

So diff could move real hard or maybe not very interesting time to be a miner.

For the difficulty to move by something like 10-20% you would need 50-100 PH/s of hardware to be deployed and that isn't easy or cheap. With the uncertainty of the block reward halving coming up in just a few months (July-ish next year) we will probably see the difficulty lagging behind this price rally and we will probably see a price correction too. Or we'll all be rich, I'm fine with that too 

that works for me

[notlist3d]

So diff could move real hard or maybe not very interesting time to be a miner.

For the difficulty to move by something like 10-20% you would need 50-100 PH/s of hardware to be deployed and that isn't easy or cheap. With the uncertainty of the block reward halving coming up in just a few months (July-ish next year) we will probably see the difficulty lagging behind this price rally and we will probably see a price correction too. Or we'll all be rich, I'm fine with that too 

that works for me

I'm thinking the same were getting to a point there is a lot of hash in the network.   So it's much harder to do big jumps.  For example we at one time got 20+ jumps long ago.... for 20+ it would take a ton of miners and massive ivestment.

I'm hoping we top out around 5 anymore, but I would rather be around 2.

[philipma1957]

coins are exploding 359 at coinbase!!

man oh man.

people are going to be dragging all their old gear out of storage.

Bitmaintech is in a very interesting spot.

And all the early picks under 5% on this thread are in poor shape.

looks like we will go  6% minimum if coins keep shooting upwards.

[Mikestang]

Rising coin price coupled with falling temperatures in the northern hemisphere and winter electricity rates, and all this new hardware is going to make the next few months very fun to watch from a difficulty speculation perspective.  Throw the halving in and wow, there's really no saying what things will look like in the near future.

I got a late guess in this round, but I'm glad I did because it's looking to be headed that direction.