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Author Topic: The thing I've noticed about these runs  (Read 708 times)
rocks
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November 02, 2015, 08:07:14 PM
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Most runs over the past 12-18 months have stalled out after only a moderate increase in price. One reason for this is the selling pressure created by traders. After a 20% or 40% increase in price most traders sell their positions to buy back lower. This means that every run faces significant selling pressure early in the run, and this selling pressure is what eventually stalls the run.

In this run we are about to break through that selling pressure from traders. Most traders sold part of their positions close to $300 and the rest likely by $350. After that price selling pressure from traders is largely removed. Most of the remaining positions are long term positions. The result is a steady increase in price with larger and larger steps each day.

The previous major runs in 2013 and 2011 behaved like this. Once they broke through the initial levels of resistance where traders exited, those runs then had room for steady and continuous increases.

The current run looks just like this, steady and continuous increases now that we've broken through the ranges where traders sell. Just as I was typing this coinbase just ran through $350 to $358. The traders have largely exited their trading positions, who is left to sell?
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November 02, 2015, 08:08:49 PM
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First time the price has come even close to doubling it's self since the great bubble.. interesting times.
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November 02, 2015, 08:12:06 PM
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Price is growing very fast, could be that some traders where shorts and now are closing its position? Bitcoin price now is over 355 $
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November 02, 2015, 08:16:23 PM
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Same thing happened last year in may for apparently no reason, only to end 1 month after and start maybe the longest bearmarket in BTC story.

See the price rising and the profits increasing is nice, but still is too early to call another bubble, may be another May 2014 event instead, there is no way to know right now

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spazzdla
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November 02, 2015, 08:20:01 PM
 #5

Same thing happened last year in may for apparently no reason, only to end 1 month after and start maybe the longest bearmarket in BTC story.

See the price rising and the profits increasing is nice, but still is too early to call another bubble, may be another May 2014 event instead, there is no way to know right now

It didn't move even close to this amount.  We should be at 220-240 already...
rocks
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November 02, 2015, 08:28:06 PM
 #6

Same thing happened last year in may for apparently no reason, only to end 1 month after and start maybe the longest bearmarket in BTC story.

See the price rising and the profits increasing is nice, but still is too early to call another bubble, may be another May 2014 event instead, there is no way to know right now

That May 2014 increase was just a dead cat bounce following the 2013 bubble. Almost everyone was still sitting on profits from the prior run, and motivated to sell to lock in gains.

This is very different because we've had 2 years since the last bubble. Everyone that was going to sell for a profit above the prior level has done so. The main sellers left are short term traders, who have had the same $200 - $300 range for over a year, which means most of those exited their longs (and even opened up shorts).

It's quite different from May 2014 IMHO
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November 02, 2015, 08:31:56 PM
 #7

Most runs over the past 12-18 months have stalled out after only a moderate increase in price. One reason for this is the selling pressure created by traders. After a 20% or 40% increase in price most traders sell their positions to buy back lower. This means that every run faces significant selling pressure early in the run, and this selling pressure is what eventually stalls the run.

In this run we are about to break through that selling pressure from traders. Most traders sold part of their positions close to $300 and the rest likely by $350. After that price selling pressure from traders is largely removed. Most of the remaining positions are long term positions. The result is a steady increase in price with larger and larger steps each day.

The previous major runs in 2013 and 2011 behaved like this. Once they broke through the initial levels of resistance where traders exited, those runs then had room for steady and continuous increases.

The current run looks just like this, steady and continuous increases now that we've broken through the ranges where traders sell. Just as I was typing this coinbase just ran through $350 to $358. The traders have largely exited their trading positions, who is left to sell?


note that so far few newspapers have discussed the boom yet. (There have been papers about bitcoin itself, but none of them mentioned current rally yet, they just noted the technology itself)

once newspapers start reporting the boom, people will try to buy more bitcoin, but it will take time before that money hits exchanges, so expect the price to skyrocket a few days after the current boom has hit the newspapers.

after that, it can go really crazy.
zimmah
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November 02, 2015, 08:36:31 PM
 #8

Same thing happened last year in may for apparently no reason, only to end 1 month after and start maybe the longest bearmarket in BTC story.

See the price rising and the profits increasing is nice, but still is too early to call another bubble, may be another May 2014 event instead, there is no way to know right now


except last year in may was just an aftershock from the insane double bubble in 2013, this time, we come from trading horizontally for almost a full year and suddenly the price begins to spike.

This time, many people were still in bear mode (unlike may 2014, where people were still largely bullish) and many of the bears just got short-squeezed (or zhou tonged as i believe we call it in bitcoin).

the situation right now is not comparable to may 2014 at all.
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November 02, 2015, 08:41:36 PM
 #9

Seems plausible. The price climbed so high so fast that shorts are out and most traders surely exited by now waiting to reentry.

RIP Bittrex
rocks
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November 02, 2015, 08:57:05 PM
 #10

Seems plausible. The price climbed so high so fast that shorts are out and most traders surely exicted by now waiting to reentry.

The waiting to reentry is the key IMHO. They are out and can only watch now. Then when the price hits the exponential phase, they are the ones adding fuel to the fire to keep the rally going after having missed the majority of the run.
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