Incoming $163,000,000,000 market cap and $7700+ coins

[DonQuijote]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR

I think like you, we will 3rd

[Biodom]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR

I think like you, we will 3rd

no way, you forgot the RMB (yuan). I am OK with fourth.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

Anything but a slow rise is going to be very bad for bitcoin as a currency, which if I'm not mistaken is what it's supposed to be.  A lot of people got burned in 2013, and I think merchants get scared off by price volatility.

Otoh, if it went to $7000/coin, WOOT WOOT!!

[r0ach]

Anything but a slow rise is going to be very bad for bitcoin as a currency, which if I'm not mistaken is what it's supposed to be.  A lot of people got burned in 2013, and I think merchants get scared off by price volatility.

Facebook stock halved in price on release then went up 500%.  Currencies in South America are doing similar roller coasters by the day.  Everything is volatile!

[premium_domainer]

$7700 / coin for sure but when? do you have any ETA !

[Altynbekova]

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins
This is really nice. I am glad that I have 1 bitcoin,b ecause if this happen I can be a millionair in the fute.

[Amph]

$7700 / coin for sure but when? do you have any ETA !

to see it from a simple point of view..

range 1k-10k should kick in between this halving and the next one(2020), no more than that, then you have the range 10k-100k that should come in the decade of 2020-2030 and that's it

[Mickeyb]

$7700 / coin for sure but when? do you have any ETA !

to see it from a simple point of view..

range 1k-10k should kick in between this halving and the next one(2020), no more than that, then you have the range 10k-100k that should coem in the decade of 2020-2030 and that's it

Yes, year 2020 we should go in my mind up to $10k per coin!

At least this is how I see it.

[Adaleon]

Oh man! I need to get 1 bitcoin now, before that will happen.
Oh well I will just try collecting some.

[crazyivan]

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do such a move, but many also will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be much higher with that much real cash going in.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

This actually s got some sense. Imagine what would happen if they would invest 5% each. )

Seriously, we re far away from that. I d be happy with $2k per BTC in the next 2 years.

[talks_cheep]

Price jumps 10% and then all the crazies come out proclaiming $1 million for a coin.  When you see a crazy like that, just remind yourself of the 2 year bear market we are just recovering from.

[helloeverybody]

Im going to need more than $7761 per coin before i can retire

[bitebits]

Im going to need more than $7761 per coin before i can retire

Well that is easily solved, and this advise is for free: Get more bitcoins or spend less.

I think it is going to take a while before bitcoins dollar value becomes > 800$ unless there is a some external impulse. The great thing is that anything can trigger it instantly, so better get yourself some train tickets in advance.

[helloeverybody]

Im going to need more than $7761 per coin before i can retire

Well that is easily solved, and this advise is for free: Get more bitcoins or spend less.

I think it is going to take a while before bitcoins dollar value becomes > 800$ unless there is a some external impulse. The great thing is that anything can trigger it instantly, so better get yourself some train tickets in advance.

Im actually thinking about biting the bullet at the price they are now.  If its an upword trend then no problem. As usual i buy high and sell low so no point in changing the habit of a lifetime.

[zimmah]

$7700 / coin for sure but when? do you have any ETA !

to see it from a simple point of view..

range 1k-10k should kick in between this halving and the next one(2020), no more than that, then you have the range 10k-100k that should come in the decade of 2020-2030 and that's it

Lol, way too slow.

[HabBear]

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

I don't think this is as strange as all the millionaires in the world putting all of their assets into bitcoin.

So I understand the math (thanks for sharing it), why did you select these numbers? What's significant about them to you?

[Moneyburner]

I think OP's main underlying point is a good one. Given the very limited adoption of the coin, there is still a lot of outside cash waiting to come in. Just wait for those institutional investors...

[r0ach]

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

I don't think this is as strange as all the millionaires in the world putting all of their assets into bitcoin.

So I understand the math (thanks for sharing it), why did you select these numbers? What's significant about them to you?

Mostly due to gold fever people and Bitcoin skeptics who disregarded it before are now advocating this 1% number.  Non-skeptics will obviously go much higher.  I wanted to give the most plausible, realistic number of what you can expect to happen after Bitcoin passes the old ATH, because that's the point it would likely accelerate faster to these levels mentioned.  I think the rise over ATH will be $1600, then dump, then $3200, then you'd get more big sell pressure here that holds it in place for a while.

At that point, the money will probably start to trickle in from high net worth individuals as a hedge with a slower rise, with the ability to hit something like $10k before the next 2008 crash.  There will be lots of sell pressure with coins that high in price so lots of people will miss the boat for another big rise with the next banking crash.  After the next banking crash, Bitcoin will be somewhere between $10k-100k, or we'll go back to the dark ages and only gold will be valuable if someone doesn't kill you first.

As other people said, I low balled the price by counting every millionaire as only having one million dollars and not any more.  I wanted to be conservative and account for things like actual liquid cash available, funds tied up in trusts, land, or general disinterest, etc.  If everyone with a million or more hedged 1% of total net worth instead of the low ball estimation I used, the price would probably be more like $100k+ without the next crash even occurring yet.

[DonQuijote]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR

I think like you, we will 3rd

no way, you forgot the RMB (yuan). I am OK with fourth.

True, my error, thanks

[r0ach]

Up 12.5% since original Nov 2nd 2015 post.