Incoming $163,000,000,000 market cap and $7700+ coins

[r0ach]

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do such a move, but many also will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be far higher with that much real cash going in.

This also assumes they only have one million dollars when these 16.3 million people also include multi-millionaires and billionaires, so they would be investing more than $10,000 if they did 1% of their wealth.  If you don't low ball how market cap works, or low ball the amount of money these 16.3 million people have, the real value would probably reach something like $100k-500k+ while acting soley as something rich people hedge 1% of their wealth in without the mainstream even using or touching Bitcoin.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

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[Meuh6879]

[solid12345]

You raise a good point, all you need is 14 million people deciding to say "What the hell, i'll buy "one" Bitcoin just in case" for the price to skyrocket.

[zimmah]

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do something like this, but many still will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be much higher with that much real cash going in.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

I see this as a plausible event. Sooner or later rich people will invest 1% or less of their networth in bitcoin, and since there are only like 1 to 3 million bitcoins available on exchange (rough guess), they will really have to pay a lot for those bitcoin.

They are also likely to keep the bitcoin for quite a while, because they likely understand the true value of bitcoin once they realize how limited the amount is.

[suda123]

that reply LOL just made my morning

[NorrisK]

Nice reasoning, but I think as soon as price rises more coins become available or are retraded.

So it might be a bit high at the moment, especially considering not all millionaires will buy bitcoin.

Nice to see that people starting to put it in their portfolio though

[gentlemand]

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be much higher with that much real cash going in.

It would be far into the tens of thousands if real cash of that quantity was poured in.

[r0ach]

Nice reasoning, but I think as soon as price rises more coins become available or are retraded.

So it might be a bit high at the moment, especially considering not all millionaires will buy bitcoin.

Nice to see that people starting to put it in their portfolio though

It balances out because a lot of millionaires will buy 0, and many will buy much more like the Winklevozz.  I think their average buy price is something like $100 a coin, which is not that low considering how long they've been in it and how high it can go.  Many people like to believe Bitcoin is a zero sum game and think you're just going to make someone else rich by buying some.  People who aren't mentally insane only care about what potential it can bring themselves in the future regardless of what other people make from it.  If it goes to $7000, it doesn't matter a whole lot that the Winklevoss got in $100 or two cheaper.

[gentlemand]

It balances out because a lot of millionaires will buy 0, and many will buy much more like the Winklevozz.  I think their average buy price is something like $100 a coin, which is not that low considering how long they've been in it and how high it can go.

The Winklevii were buying in 2012. I think their average is somewhere around the $10 mark. They were also personally responsible for the buy that pushed the market cap over a billion for the first time.

It would be pretty bizarre to see a millionaire bun fight play itself out. I don't think they got to where they are today by chucking unlimited amounts around but stranger things have happened.

[the_poet]

that reply LOL just made my morning

 

[r0ach]

The Winklevii were buying in 2012. I think their average is somewhere around the $10 mark.

If you're the market maker, you gotta buy more to increase the price of the ones you already have.

[jasonjm]

the winkles average is about $100 per coin

also once the price of coins start rising fast EVERYONE pulls their coins from sale. its the exact opposite of what you would think, but everyone plays chicken waiting for a top.
last time during the big price rise from say 400 to 1000, there were literally 6 000 to 10 000 coins total for sale on all exchanges. I remember it very well. coins started showing up for sale once we stalled out at 1100

but having said that, there is noways all 21 million of those coins will be for sale ever

first of all there are not 21 million coins (yet... but not even close now)

second of all millions of those coins will be lost for whatever reasons

third, a lot of people will be buy and hold no matter what. some coins are just not for sale, as their either bought in on the way up and need to have it go up to make money, or they just think bitcoin should be $100k and will never sell or spend.

fourth, the millionaires I deal with have all spent a lot more than $10k per millionaire. Some are in for $200k to $500k, none have spent $10k or less, its either zero or a lot more than $10k.

fifth, it depends on how fast the money comes online. if it grows in a stable manner, like a 20% increase per year in money flowing in, it might be a stable type rise. But if you get 100% or 200% money flowing in within a year, it will be a vertical spike on price with a vertical crash again.

so in summary if $163B had to flow into Bitcoin, the price at some point would reach $50k minimum I am guessing at a peak spike.
  

[Dotto]

Some millionaries entering late and other betting the 5% of his fortune could do this cipher very conservative. I see it more like 32k/BTC and beyond

[andyatcrux]

The OP is pointing out the fact that it would not take an unbelievable amount of capital infusion to see Bitcoin go to astronomical levels. Given the shift in sentiment (with "bad news" not being so bad anymore) and the fact that some deep pockets are starting to have their balls drop (ie: starting to see the massive potential of the tech) it is hard to set a limit on how far this puppy can go. Sorry for all the stupid analogies. 

[disclaimer201]

Next wave is going to be 10fold up, so around 3000 Dollars. But! I don't expect this new bubble before the end of next year, some months after the halving and when we have a new status quo in price and mining  (which will have lost a lot of its attraction by then anyway). Until August 2016 we won't see big bubbles, but slow price increases or waves.

Only question is what will this new price be then? My guess is somewhere near 1000 USD, maybe 900, maybe 1100 before this new bubble will take us to 3k. End result: New (temporary) bag holders will be created but the price will remain in the 4-digit realm. There you have it, mark my words. ;-p

[JayJuanGee]

Next wave is going to be 10fold up, so around 3000 Dollars. But! I don't expect this new bubble before the end of next year, some months after the halving and when we have a new status quo in price and mining  (which will have lost a lot of its attraction by then anyway). Until August 2016 we won't see big bubbles, but slow price increases or waves.

Only question is what will this new price be then? My guess is somewhere near 1000 USD, maybe 900, maybe 1100 before this new bubble will take us to 3k. End result: New (temporary) bag holders will be created but the price will remain in the 4-digit realm. There you have it, mark my words. ;-p

I have my doubts whether any of us can have a very precise vision.

But the next bubble in the $3k to 7K range seems  plausible and reasonable.

I have my doubts whether it will take a year to have such a bubble.  We seems to have pretty decent momentum now, and maybe in the near term (1-3 months),  bounce in the $350 to $$800 territory, but that seems to gradual, and previous bubbles have come fairly rapidly, so it is possibly that the current fuel is going to bring us to $3k to $7k within the next few months.

I doubt that we need to rely on millionaires for such.  Surely, a few millionaires ill jump on board, but we are going to also have additional investment from the various segments of the masses, investing anywhere between $100 and $10k depending on their own level of comfort and/or perception of risk/reward.

[macsga]

Woot!

https://www.btcc.com/news/article/btcc-now-accepting-direct-bank-deposits

[r0ach]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

[the_poet]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR

[Paashaas]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

That went fast, not long ago they bashed BTC and now bombing it as a world reserve currency...lol

This is a reason why you need to save a few whole coins, just in case if it gets there.