Incoming $163,000,000,000 market cap and $7700+ coins

[brg444]

Looks like CNBC is more bullish than this thread:

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/03/bitcoin-to-be-6th-largest-reserve-currency-by-2030-research.html

6th? I'd say more like 3rd, after USD and EUR

By that time it's more likely those two are dead or have converted to using Bitcoin as reserve for their dirty fiat.

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[r0ach]

China buying not stopping anytime soon.  First we had:

No wonder China is buying Bitcoin like mad, they got a bunch of Bernie Madoff funds about to implode:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-01/partner-chinas-carl-icahn-executed-local-police-after-attempting-escape-following-in

Now we have:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-02/widening-probe-snags-most-senior-chinese-banker-yet-sends-stocks-lower-rba-sparks-co

Slightly unrelated, Max Keiser flipping out about banks in this Netherlands Bitcoin documentary that just aired at around 2 minutes 30 seconds:

https://youtu.be/8zKuoqZLyKg?t=154

[thejaytiesto]

An excellent point, and since like you said, market doesn't work like this and this is just a rough estimate, we are talking that a single millionaire could feel lucky or fall in love with Bitcoin and spend WAY MORE than 10K. Millionaires move millions daily in investments, 10K is absolutely nothing for them. A lot more will go above this 10K per investment threshold, no doubt about it.

[r0ach]

5% there so far.

[gentlemand]

An excellent point, and since like you said, market doesn't work like this and this is just a rough estimate, we are talking that a single millionaire could feel lucky or fall in love with Bitcoin and spend WAY MORE than 10K. Millionaires move millions daily in investments, 10K is absolutely nothing for them. A lot more will go above this 10K per investment threshold, no doubt about it.

Yup. They spend 10k on having their wives' arses plucked. If you take the time and trouble to educate yourself on something like BTC then the chances are you're going to feel the excitement and throw a little more than spare change at it. Then again quite a few didn't get there by being dumb so you'd look for roundabout ways to pile in rather than straightforward market buys. I guess those options would be thin if everyone was at it.

[r0ach]

Progress:  6% there.

[r0ach]

Still only 6% there, but starting to look more optimistic!

[Amph]

it's more like 4%, 160B/6B is 1/25 100/25 = 4%

i don't know were you see 6%, probably because you estimated the wrong number on the total avaiblable coin? since at 163B it's not 7700 per coin

[mexicantarget]

You raise a good point, all you need is 14 million people deciding to say "What the hell, i'll buy "one" Bitcoin just in case" for the price to skyrocket.

Which is not impossible to happen in the mid term future (3-5 years from now). I highly believe that we'll see $2k in a year from now. Could be even less.

[MR1]

People who claim that BTC will worth dozens of thousands of USD per coin normally forget that on the market there are already several digital currencies that 1) offer much faster transactions than BTC; 2) offer higher level of anonymity; 3) already solved scalability issue.

BTC was a first experiment of digital currencies and it`s far from being perfect. Nobody know which coins will be #1 in 5 or 10 years.

[Mickeyb]

People who claim that BTC will worth dozens of thousands of USD per coin normally forget that on the market there are already several digital currencies that 1) offer much faster transactions than BTC; 2) offer higher level of anonymity; 3) already solved scalability issue.

BTC was a first experiment of digital currencies and it`s far from being perfect. Nobody know which coins will be #1 in 5 or 10 years.

They are but they are all unproven with very small communities. In this field the confidence is everything and even Bitcoin has hard time to gain the mainstream confidence and not some other alts that have even barely working wallets.

Also don't forget, that potentially all of the features that these other coins have can be possibly added to the Bitcoin. You never know what the development brings and where are we headed in the future!

[talks_cheep]

No, OP's got it totally wrong.

Soon, 1 btc is going to be worth $7890000000000000000000000000000000!!! In near future, like 2340.

[lottery248]

don't get MMM to raid bitcoin price, will no good to the bitcoin!
in that case, sell your bitcoin and go long first to get yourself safe.
i don't want bitcoin to fall again because of the ponzi! it would be horrible!

[anthonycamp]

well the money its into the hands of 4% of all polulation at least the millions and thats like 600.000.000.000$ per most rich people and the all usa gives 1 trillion per year into supravit but not like even a 1% of this goes to btc so btc will have just 60bill and for the releagated coins its like 10.000$ per coin if goes like year 2020 the 1% of all fiat into btc

[r0ach]

i don't know were you see 6%, probably because you estimated the wrong number on the total avaiblable coin? since at 163B it's not 7700 per coin

I just did 425/7700 and rounded up heh.

[Hannu]

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do such a move, but many also will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be much higher with that much real cash going in.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

Lottery is one thing what make some lucky people rich and another is OIL 

[Biodom]

Where does this number come from?  Easy, most long term Bitcoin skeptics have now done a complete 180 and claim you should invest 1% "just in case".  Even hardcore Zerohedge readers who only believe in gold and aren't into Bitcoin at all say this.  People with low net worths, or not of the investment class, will be more hesitant to do such a move, but many also will.  For the sake of simple calculation, we will say that only millionaires would be willing to risk that type of cash, 1% of their net worth, or $10,000.  

Since there are 16,300,000 millionaires on earth, 16,300,000 x $10,000 = $163,000,000,000 market cap

$163,000,000,000 divided by 21,000,000 Bitcoins = $7761 coins

Market cap doesn't actually work like this though, so the price would likely be much higher with that much real cash going in.

Much stranger things have happened before:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-10/pure-madness-revenueless-assetless-sync-continues-over-5bn-now-bigger-cablevision-an

This is a partially incorrect calculation. There are 16-17 million millionaires, but their average holding is not exactly 1 mil.
You have to take 1% of their total holdings, which are at least ~56-67trillion according to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire and
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/15/millionaires-control-41-of-worlds-wealth.html

1% of 56 tril is 560bil or ~$27000/BTC
1% of 67 tril is ~$32000/BTC

[iv4n]

You raise a good point, all you need is 14 million people deciding to say "What the hell, i'll buy "one" Bitcoin just in case" for the price to skyrocket.

Which is not impossible to happen in the mid term future (3-5 years from now). I highly believe that we'll see $2k in a year from now. Could be even less.

I like how it sounds " even less". I think its very easy to touch it in next six months. Bitcoin had some publicity, maybe not so nice, but people heard about it and for sure they will search what that is, they will make some tests with small amounts.. and I dont see a reason why this 14 mil could not be sold faster then we even think, maybe we will see some big and nice surprise.

[r0ach]

This is a partially incorrect calculation. There are 16-17 million millionaires, but their average holding is not exactly 1 mil.
You have to take 1% of their total holdings, which are at least ~56-67trillion according to
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Millionaire and
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/06/15/millionaires-control-41-of-worlds-wealth.html

1% of 56 tril is 560bil or ~$27000/BTC
1% of 67 tril is ~$32000/BTC

The problem is that if you go with 1% of the net worth of everyone with a million or more, a lot of these people are paper millionaires like Donald Trump that have all their money locked up in things like golf courses, buildings, London trust funds, etc.  I was trying to do a very conservative estimate without trying to inflate to best case scenario about the amount of liquid cash roaming around, which is why I just low balled it with 16 million x $1 million.  This is a good number that also takes into account some will not be interested or think it's some kind of bible prophecy devil currency.

Even though it could hit 6 figures a coin eventually, I think things like that also require large economic crashes to force people into something besides paper.  A value of something like $10,000 can occur before the next 2008 crash even gets here though, soon as the 12.5 block reward period hits with 75% of coins already mined.

[rocks]

People who claim that BTC will worth dozens of thousands of USD per coin normally forget that on the market there are already several digital currencies that 1) offer much faster transactions than BTC; 2) offer higher level of anonymity; 3) already solved scalability issue.

BTC was a first experiment of digital currencies and it`s far from being perfect. Nobody know which coins will be #1 in 5 or 10 years.

They are but they are all unproven with very small communities. In this field the confidence is everything and even Bitcoin has hard time to gain the mainstream confidence and not some other alts that have even barely working wallets.

Also don't forget, that potentially all of the features that these other coins have can be possibly added to the Bitcoin. You never know what the development brings and where are we headed in the future!

No need to bring reality into it. Let the Monero believers have their fantasy.