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Author Topic: some insights from a Chinese speculator  (Read 1753 times)
zhangweiwu
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November 04, 2015, 03:33:19 PM
 #1

My editor called my attention to the recent surge on bitcoin price. I am a bit out of touch since I moved away from China last year, but I'll share a few points of view - could be useful because I see things from a different angle.

There are surprisingly sparse information about this surge on the Chinese internet - a disconnected part of the Internet that the Chinese think is the Internet. I hope I could be of more use to my editor by my source of information from QQ groups, but my QQ account is suspended after I logged in from Australia a few times and the formality necessary to regain it looks painful to me. So I won't be able to write a news report - but there is something to be see from nothingness that I can speculate freely in forums. Observation about things that should happen (but didn't) reveals much information.

What didn't happen is the precursor good news. Foreign news like Nasdaq doesn't move sentiments here. BTCC's reënabling of bank deposite seems to be the only good news that can touch the ignorant nerves of Chinese gamblers. BTCC didn't make a fuzz about it - almost doing it quietly. For a tiny industry set back by government scrutiny, BTCC has no reason to make a fuzz about it before the government, play the fool and gets whipped ("see? I know what the emperor will do!"). The big question is "Do BTCC know something we don't, but didn't tell lest playing the all-knowing jester?" The opposite could be true as well - BTCC simply decide to do the act since the Lord has lost his interest - Zhou Xiaochuan (PBOC) has a lot to worry about and President Xi won't mind these small things. I explained before: "If Bitcoin remains small, it will be allowed to live". Now bitcoin is so weak, it's probably fine to test the Lord. Since BTCC won't tell, the truth is irrelevant to market price.

The other possible cause, MMM-China, I dismiss as unlikely. They still need to rewrite their propaganda in everyday Chinese. Besides, MMM-China attacks bankers, trying to inspire sympathy, while the Chinese don't hate bankers - bankers don't rule China; they obay the Party (what else do you expect in Communism China?). Before MMM-China corrects the two problems, they can't win the heart of average Chinese. How ignorant, foreign cons and evangelists, I see from time to time, think that they can replicate their success in China as-is.

So what do I learn from the lack of information?

The future market is influnced by market sentiment and Chinese government reaction. The market sentiment we can't calculate - but I'll be succinct in stating the Chinese gamblers usually have a good appetite. The government reaction, on the other hand, is a lot easier to predict. It's going to be between inaction and "No", depends on whether a clear "no" degrades the government image to that of a micromanagement boss. Since it's all about image, or face value, or crowd control, it is inappropriate for the government to interfere if the people, the common crowd, are not yet influnced. There is a good indicator of "people gets influnced" - media coverage. So, we got a good precursor: no public media coverage of the Bitcoin frenzy, no government ban. Set Google keyword alert to be a public media coverage by a provincial level or well-known media and (market sentiment aside) it's safe to hold your coins until then (and a bit of time after, since the government works at its own pace).

I am not that ignorant to be pride of my ignorance of the latest developments in China - if you know some info, share it or message me, and I may change my take on things (and thank you as well).

A few words about myself:

I made a few good guesses in the past, including predicting Chinese government ban to bitcoin and the Chinese frenzy that leads to 1000USD, gained a bit fame. Then I migrated to Australia - not due to the uneventful Bitcoin development in China (which I predicted) but due to the dim future for a liberal mind under the regime of the new emperor. The bitcoin speculation won me some money, which eased my way to Australia, but didn't make it easy for me to blend in. For example, one of the reason Google here turns me down is that I lack International view - a rephrase of my interesting Chinese way of looking at things. Not many care about bitcoin here down under. In an effort to intermingle with Aussie startups I designed an Android public transit app - youtube link here) - it works everywhere in the world, so if that's what you need, help by testing itSmiley

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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November 04, 2015, 03:57:28 PM
 #2

Thank you for your observations. They are much appreciated. Smiley

One of the theories going around here is that Chinese speculators are looking for alternative investments after the lackluster performance of the Chinese stock market. What would you say to this?

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November 04, 2015, 04:02:42 PM
 #3

My editor called my attention to the recent surge on bitcoin price. I am a bit out of touch since I moved away from China last year, but I'll share a few points of view - could be useful because I see things from a different angle.

There are surprisingly sparse information about this surge on the Chinese internet - a disconnected part of the Internet that the Chinese think is the Internet. I hope I could be of more use to my editor by my source of information from QQ groups, but my QQ account is suspended after I logged in from Australia a few times and the formality necessary to regain it looks painful to me. So I won't be able to write a news report - but there is something to be see from nothingness that I can speculate freely in forums. Observation about things that should happen (but didn't) reveals much information.

What didn't happen is the precursor good news. Foreign news like Nasdaq doesn't move sentiments here. BTCC's reënabling of bank deposite seems to be the only good news that can touch the ignorant nerves of Chinese gamblers. BTCC didn't make a fuzz about it - almost doing it quietly. For a tiny industry set back by government scrutiny, BTCC has no reason to make a fuzz about it before the government, play the fool and gets whipped ("see? I know what the emperor will do!"). The big question is "Do BTCC know something we don't, but didn't tell lest playing the all-knowing jester?" The opposite could be true as well - BTCC simply decide to do the act since the Lord has lost his interest - Zhou Xiaochuan (PBOC) has a lot to worry about and President Xi won't mind these small things. I explained before: "If Bitcoin remains small, it will be allowed to live". Now bitcoin is so weak, it's probably fine to test the Lord. Since BTCC won't tell, the truth is irrelevant to market price.

The other possible cause, MMM-China, I dismiss as unlikely. They still need to rewrite their propaganda in everyday Chinese. Besides, MMM-China attacks bankers, trying to inspire sympathy, while the Chinese don't hate bankers - bankers don't rule China; they obay the Party. Before MMM-China corrects the two problems, they can't win the heart of average Chinese. How ignorant, foreign cons and evangelists, I see from time to time, think that they can replicate their success in China as-is.

So what do I learn from the lack of information?

The future market is influnced by market sentiment and Chinese government reaction. The market sentiment we can't calculate - but I'll be succinct in stating the Chinese gamblers usually have a good appetite. The government reaction, on the other hand, is a lot easier to predict. It's going to be between inaction and "No", depends on whether a clear "no" degrades the government image to that of a micromanagement boss. Since it's all about image, or face value, or crowd control, it is inappropriate for the government to interfere if the people, the common crowd, are not yet influnced. There is a good indicator of "people gets influnced" - media coverage. So, we got a good precursor: no public media coverage of the Bitcoin frenzy, no government ban. Set Google keyword alert to be a public media coverage by a provincial level or well-known media and (market sentiment aside) it's safe to hold your coins until then (and a bit of time after, since the government works at its own pace).

I am not that ignorant to be pride of my ignorance of the latest developments in China - if you know some info, share it or message me, and I may change my take on things (and thank you as well).

A few words about myself:

I made a few good guesses in the past, including predicting Chinese government ban to bitcoin and the Chinese frenzy that leads to 1000USD, gained a bit fame. Then I migrated to Australia - not due to the uneventful Bitcoin development in China (which I predicted) but due to the dim future for a liberal mind under the regime of the new emperor. The bitcoin speculation won me some money, which eased my way to Australia, but didn't make it easy for me to blend in. For example, one of the reason Google here turns me down is that I lack International view - a rephrase of my interesting Chinese way of looking at things. Not many care about bitcoin here down under. In an effort to intermingle with Aussie startups I designed an Android public transit app - youtube link here) - it works everywhere in the world, so if that's what you need, help by testing itSmiley

Thanks. I appreciate the look into the 'averaged' mindset of Chinese traders / speculators. Might not be 'tradeable' information, sure, but if nothing else, it satisfies my curiosity about a country (and culture) that I know way too little about, unfortunately.

Not sure which Bitcoin wallet to use? I suggest to take a look at Electrum.
Electrum is an open-source lightweight client: user friendly, fast, and one of the safest ways to store, send or receive bitcoins.
For executables (Windows, OSX, Linux, Android), source code and documentation, see the Electrum homepage.
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November 04, 2015, 05:03:45 PM
 #4

Agreed...GREAT post.  Thank you for sharing.
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November 04, 2015, 06:09:54 PM
 #5

Good post, thanks for sharing




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November 04, 2015, 06:30:51 PM
 #6

enjoyed your post
look forward to more my friend

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November 04, 2015, 08:01:20 PM
 #7

Great post, thanks for sharing. I look forward to your continued insights.

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November 04, 2015, 08:17:42 PM
 #8

So your post in short just describes how you currently have no idea what's going on, and you want us to share if we know something to inform you about it.
Praising your earlier guesses is just icing on the cake of a long post, which i red from start to finish and still know nothing (new).
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November 04, 2015, 08:32:23 PM
 #9

So you say you're from China but you speak perfect english.

This sounds a lot like a certain other guy we all are quite familiar with.

Are you satoshi nakamato?
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November 04, 2015, 08:55:33 PM
 #10

Great insights, thanks!

zhangweiwu
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November 04, 2015, 10:19:15 PM
 #11

One of the theories going around here is that Chinese speculators are looking for alternative investments after the lackluster performance of the Chinese stock market.

They always are looking for high-growth investments. A common type of trader is unmarried youngs. They have an unusual sentiment of "compensation", that sets their mental expectation high - they won't stop at winning a year's salary; they want to win a flat - roughly a lifetime's salary (a lot more expensive than an Australian house).

Let me explain the "compensation".

China pretty much works like a pyramid scheme. It's not a Chinese specialty - Greek does that too, except that they are in the ending phrase of a pyramid scheme. The pyramid scheme takes the profit from the youngsters and rewards the early players. In China it happened in the form of real-estate - for an average Chinese young man / woman, renting a very small apartment - single room and single bathroom with no space for a bathing tube - costs more than half of the salary for a good job. Those who bought additional property a decade ago enjoys rental income and high capital gain, many of them live in Australia as I see. For example, a friend of mine, new comer to Australia, cashed out his flat(!) in Beijing outskirt last year, with 1.5$m USD in hand, before he set out for Australia. Chinese buy house the first thing on their list, so the whole generation was enriched at the labour of their youngsters. (How dramatic it will be when the pyramid is de-based by one-child policy.)

It is only unfair, for the younger generation, who struggle to get a house to get married. China's recent development, like the skyscrapers in every block in Shanghai, are their work after all. Many young players in the market are in their denial. They believe that they should share the good fortune like their parents, only if they are given the opportunity - for some time this opportunity was the stock market, because real estate is too expensive and not growing fast enough. Human are risk-seeking when they protect their "rightful own" benefit, so they gamble.  It doesn't make much difference how much do you have, as long as you don't have the million dollar for a place to house your wife. Hence the "compensation" is to win a house. Pity though, all these has nothing to do with decentralization and Bitcoin purchase transactions remain non-existant in China.

What I don't know, is if the risk-seeking stock market players and the current spike has a cause-and-effect relationship. That has to be supported by data. But if it is, Bitcoin market is going to be more frenzy than China's stock market, for there are no old players who look at fundamental and fear. It's a young-man-only market (and no young woman, because they are the party who demands the flat).

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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November 04, 2015, 10:28:00 PM
 #12

thanks! Grin

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November 04, 2015, 10:31:01 PM
 #13

We could use more post like this, giving us a more inside view of other countries and their thoughts on crypto currencies
.


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November 04, 2015, 10:43:24 PM
 #14

one of the most valuables post in all the sea of posts in the speculation section. Definitely adding some interesting perspective, which we Westerners, cannot grab that easily having not enough, data, cultural background, etc. It is not a trade-able info, yet I will be watching with curiosity the further events. And I definitely encourage you to post more!

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zhangweiwu
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November 04, 2015, 10:44:05 PM
 #15

So you say you're from China but you speak perfect english.

This sounds a lot like a certain other guy we all are quite familiar with.

Are you satoshi nakamato?

Humour accepted:) I call myself a writer of prose and programs. The expectation here in Australia is high; they won't miss the spots. e.g. the first paragraph of my post used all of the past, present and future tense. An English speaking friend of mine, Mr Brown is the name, would mark all these out and write "Tense! See me" like a school teacher does to his pupil. I'm working hard to catch up. How comes the 15% Chinese-speaking population in big cities didn't tame them to lower their standards?

My (old) column about Bitcoin & China: http://bitcoinblog.de/tag/zhangweiwuengl/
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November 04, 2015, 11:09:39 PM
 #16

So you say you're from China but you speak perfect english.

This sounds a lot like a certain other guy we all are quite familiar with.

Are you satoshi nakamato?

don't make a fuzz about his perfect english

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November 04, 2015, 11:28:55 PM
 #17

 Hi
Nice to meet you here.
China is a lot to talk about,i can tell you my westerness friends than now chinise are speaking   english very well
Company ceos are speaking perfect english and even workers what i have met on Linkedin are speaking perfect english.I have learn   lot about China from great book  Wild Swans: Three Daughters of China.History of 20 century in China a family history that spans a century, recounting the lives of three female generations in China, by Chinese writer Jung Chang.
Incredible book,if you want understend China little that book will help.I haveroadthat book in early 90ties of 20 century,from that time  China has changed so much and is still in change

Why Chinise has drived btc,i think not only chinise,btc started to grow ,becouse of positive news,that was like a spark.Now we have huge correct,but i think 380$ level will be defended and btcwill be traded on level around 400$


What you think about upcoming economic event,by my opinion iit will be cruciual for worldwide economy,can be begining of the end of usa dollar domination and now it is most important for China authorities

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-06-26/china-seen-winning-reserve-currency-endorsement-in-imf-s-review
Andabout China nowand hissituation,i dont believein any china collapse,i dont think that Chinisewill providesame like west economic stimuls,like QE together with lowering  rates, thay are to inteligent,backed with century of history,looking much mor long term than just fast profit.Also China economy is diffrent than westerness,China economy is not stock economy like,sell of of stocks is not recognised like aeconomic tragedy.In West it is often used to blackmail,give us virtual money or we will deliver you stocks  disastear

Regards
P
 Nice app.Are you on LinkedIn,some people on LinkedIn can be interesed in,for example Chinise lol.I remeber one chinise lady were asking for help for some  Chinise citiy.Thay hadall information collected about weather situation on roads etc,but thay didnt know how to deliver that to drivers.Answer was of course mobile app

Still mobile app technology is not so much known and not used


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