China Behind Bitcoin's Price Rise?

[jaysabi]

Via Zero Hedge:

Bitcoin, at $444, is now up over 100% since we suggested, in early September, it would become the conduit for Chinese capital outflows following China's crackdown on capital controls. This afternoon's sudden BIS-induced plunge, taking the virtual currency down $50, has been entirely retraced and more as BTCC (China's leading Bitcoin Exchange) announced it will now accept direct deposits (making it significantly easier for Chinese to rotate their Yuan deposits into the virtual currency and out of the potential clutches of capital controlling communists).

As BTCC details,

Recent bitcoin price increases have reignited enthusiasm in buying bitcoin. BTCC is confident this trend will continue. As such, we are pleased to announce that we now accept direct deposits.
 
Customers now need only log in, click on “Account,” then “Fund,” and then select the “Bank Deposit” option to fund their BTCC accounts through their bank accounts. All customers who have Chinese bank accounts will be able to make direct deposits through ATM transfers or online banking.

And adds, even more crucially...

BTCC will stop accepting customer deposits through agents on November 15.

Which appeared to provide further dip-buying impetus to the recovery off the day's earlier mysterious plunge...




Lifting BTC to $444 highs, more than double the September levels when we suggested it. Notice the rally is on rapidly increasingly volumes also (as word spreads and ease of access is enabled)...


 

As we noted previously, this is the validation that, just as predicted here two months ago, bitcoin has become the go-to asset class for millions of Chinese savers seeking to quietly and under the radar transfer funds from point A to point B, whatever that may be, in the process circumventing the recently expanded governmental capital controls:

While he didn’t provide any concrete numbers, he did comment last week on what was driving the adoption. “Some Chinese traders are expressing a view on the CNY exchange rate after the last devaluation and you have interest by mainland speculators to move to other assets after the stock market fallout,” he explained in an interview with Bitcoin Magazine.

Which again brings us back to our conclusion from two months ago:

... if a few hundred million Chinese decide that the time has come to use bitcoin as the capital controls bypassing currency of choice, and decide to invest even a tiny fraction of the $22 trillion in Chinese deposits in bitcoin (whose total market cap at last check was just over $3 billion), sit back and watch as we witness the second coming of the bitcoin bubble, one which could make the previous all time highs in the digital currency, seems like a low print.

As of this moment, the total value of bitcoin is up from the $3 billion two months ago to a little over $5 billion. That means the ratio of Chinese deposits (at around $22 trillion) to bitcoin, is down to a far more "conservative" 4,400x.

And now, again, imagine what could happen if these same Chinese depositors realize they have been lied about the non-performing loans "backing" their deposits and that instead of the official 1.5% bad debt ratio, the real number is really far greater, somewhere in the 20% ballpark as we will show shortly, suggesting major deposit impairments are no longer the stuff of Cypriot nightmares but just the thing hundreds of millions of Chinese depositors have to look forward to, and that they have just two possible choices to avoid said impairment: reallocating their savings into bitcoin or, of course, gold.

*  *  *

How will the Chinese regulators and government react to this? Especially as the volumes are start to become relevant.

Thoughts on the likelihood of this being the explanation? Everything I've seen so far has been speculation about the halving.

[1714839466]

1714839466

[CIYAM]

Thoughts on the likelihood of this being the explanation? Everything I've seen so far has been speculation about the halving.

I'd agree 100% it was the opening of being able to send RMB to BTCC that led to the current rise (it had been blocked since Chinese New Year in 2013 after that last huge rise).

The more interesting question is just how long until they block it again.

[RealBitcoin]

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

[randy8777]

i do think china is behind the recent bull run, but it's also due to the block halving that is comming closer and closer. long story short: the sentiment is positive, that's all that matters.

[ironbit]

The main factor is China for sure, but the price increases since weeks and I guess it is the first sign for an upcoming world recession.
We have national economies all over the world which struggles. As a result, the fiat currencies of such economies are losing value and people trying to bring their money abroad or invest it into a save harbour.

[Pab]

Thoughts on the likelihood of this being the explanation? Everything I've seen so far has been speculation about the halving.

I'd agree 100% it was the opening of being able to send RMB to BTCC that led to the current rise (it had been blocked since Chinese New Year in 2013 after that last huge rise).

The more interesting question is just how long until they block it again.

China blocking,what isChina locking,there is more exchanes in China than in USA,the beiggest volume iscoming from Chinise exchanges,it doesnt mean that only Chiniseatrading there,maybe it is smart of exchanging dollar in to yuan.
hossa on USA stocks is fake,maybesome investors are taking profit,buying in west exchanges and trading for youa in China.Now i see btc trading much more like shares are trading on stocks ,professional traders are  behind

[Mickeyb]

Thoughts on the likelihood of this being the explanation? Everything I've seen so far has been speculation about the halving.

I'd agree 100% it was the opening of being able to send RMB to BTCC that led to the current rise (it had been blocked since Chinese New Year in 2013 after that last huge rise).

The more interesting question is just how long until they block it again.

What is the reason of them allowing these direct deposits if they were blocked all this time? And who has allowed them? Chinese government?

Also you mentioned, how long til they blocked them again! Why would they even be unblocking them if they are going to block deposits again in the near future?

I honestly don't get this move!

[jaysabi]

The thing I don't like about the article is it's all speculation and loosely correlated coincidences, it's not based on any hard numbers or well-developed hypotheses, and it just throws out lofty pie-in-the-sky sentiments like Just imagine what would happen if a fraction of the hundreds of millions of Chinese citizens bought bitcoin. Bitcoin adoption is so low, that hypothetical would hold the same result with just about any national population, including the United States. The article relies on what-ifs to capture that to the moon mentality bitcoiners are susceptible to. It's an interesting idea, but I'm looking for something more authoritative to support the hypothesis.

[CIYAM]

What is the reason of them allowing these direct deposits if they were blocked all this time? And who has allowed them? Chinese government?

Also you mentioned, how long til they blocked them again! Why would they even be unblocking them if they are going to block deposits again in the near future?

I honestly don't get this move!

Honestly it is impossible to know what the government in China is thinking (they generally don't broadcast things like western governments do).

So I've no idea why they decided to suddenly allow bank account deposits to exchanges but it would not surprise me if they change their mind later (as there has been no official announcement about this change).

[Miracal]

i do think china is behind the recent bull run, but it's also due to the block halving that is comming closer and closer. long story short: the sentiment is positive, that's all that matters.

Yes. I am just waiting for the block halving and going to sell then and not anytime soon. Let us hope theres not a rush to sell by too many people seeing this trend. Hold guys, just HOLD!

[kampretkabur]

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

yea why should they auctioned that at this time, a real big coincidence

[eternalgloom]

Wouldn't it be possible in theory to see where this extra volume is coming from?

[manselr]

China is behind pretty much everything that has go to do with Bitcoin at this point. If you are not aware of this already you should do some research. China will be the king of BTC as a country if they keep being mining leaders (even if the idiots go and ban it, the miners are addicted to Bitcoin at this point).

[Denker]

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

Don't make a conspiracy out of anything.I believe it's just a coincedence. And you don't know for what price the buyer of the 44k bitcoins had bought that amount. If it was around $400 or more it is very unlikely to see a dump of that coins soon. As far as I heard it was a blind auction. So no one knew how much the other offered.And all there knew the actual market price, so I tend to believe that these coins haven't be that cheap.

[RealBitcoin]

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

yea why should they auctioned that at this time, a real big coincidence

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

Don't make a conspiracy out of anything.I believe it's just a coincedence. And you don't know for what price the buyer of the 44k bitcoins had bought that amount. If it was around $400 or more it is very unlikely to see a dump of that coins soon. As far as I heard it was a blind auction. So no one knew how much the other offered.And all there knew the actual market price, so I tend to believe that these coins haven't be that cheap.

But Kraken got DDOS-ed, and BCT has also been slowed down yesterday.

Immediately after the auction ended. This is far beyond strange...

[HarryKPeters]

China is behind pretty much everything that has go to do with Bitcoin at this point. If you are not aware of this already you should do some research. China will be the king of BTC as a country if they keep being mining leaders (even if the idiots go and ban it, the miners are addicted to Bitcoin at this point).

Most capital indeed comes from china. The mining equipment are operations are mostly located in china (antpool, f2pool). So yes China rules the bitcoin scene. The rest of the world sustain the network with nodes..

So yes it is quite possible some events in China triggered this btc raise, it if is a conspiracy.. hmm don't think it.

[Cereberus]

Probably, but this auction of 44000 BTC is just bad, and could been a prefix market manipulation to dump the auction.

Its funny that the auction took place right on the day where bitcoin spiked. What a coincidence?

US feds did the same thing when they seized a large amount of bitcoins late last year.
So I don't see the difference except it is China this time.

[Luqman]

I'll bet this is true 

[jaysabi]

I've completely missed something here... what is the 4400 btc auction everyone is referring to?

[Linuld]

i do think china is behind the recent bull run, but it's also due to the block halving that is comming closer and closer. long story short: the sentiment is positive, that's all that matters.

Yes. I am just waiting for the block halving and going to sell then and not anytime soon. Let us hope theres not a rush to sell by too many people seeing this trend. Hold guys, just HOLD!

I think no need to sell now because prices are looking to stabilize around 380 to 400 range. In next move surely prices may cross 500 mark so no need to hurry for selling coins. Some smart people still accumulating for the next big move. I didn't sell any coins during this jump.

[tom555]

i think not just me,who was shocking about bitcoin price on past week,and everyone going mad,and blame china was the "narrator". on issue that chinese investor start to bought bitcoin to safe their assets. but i have read some articles and news,that not just china  behind of this,but master of MMM hyip or multi level has start to get in bitcoin to their deposite method,and i think it was a serious problem..unfortunately i forgot about this article