Bitcoin gonna burst?

[kwhcoin]

I made another chart from 2011-03-18 to 2011-06-18 using a log scale to try and get an idea where this might go if it happens to be a bursting bubble of some symmetry. With bitcoin over $15 it seems difficult to believe that it may go below $1, but the only other time bitcoin ever went above $1 was in February.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=505&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=60&i=&c=1&s=2011-03-18&e=2011-06-18&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=C&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

Could this whole spike to $30 really be just a bubble? Bitcoin is open source software of a digital currency backed by nothing of physical value. It is a new technology with a number of unknowns about wallet security, government reactions, price stability, merchant usage, and Bitcoin's ability to compete with future Bitcoin-like currencies which may be backed by things of physical value. As far as I know, there hasn't been enough positive change in these unknowns over the past couple months to justify the 30-fold run-up in Bitcoin price so it isn't too much of a stretch to consider this recent spike to be a media driven bubble of people who don't care much about Bitcoin as a revolutionary new currency and instead primarily view Bitcoin as a way to get rich, which is the driver of bubbles.

[Synaptic]

I made another chart from 2011-03-18 to 2011-06-18 using a log scale to try and get an idea where this might go if it happens to be a bursting bubble of some symmetry. With bitcoin over $15 it seems difficult to believe that it may go below $1, but the only other time bitcoin ever went above $1 was in February.



Could this whole spike to $30 really be just a bubble? Bitcoin is open source software of a digital currency backed by nothing of physical value.

Did someone say, Alpaca Socks?

[kwhcoin]

Did someone say, Alpaca Socks?

I went to the alpaca sock website linked to from the Bitcoin wiki's alpaca page and here is what it said:

“Each pair of socks is 2.5 BTC delivered to your door, no extra fees for shipping within the U.S. This price may fluctuate in the future depending on the current BTC exchange rate.”

The fact that the “price may fluctuate” means bitcoins are not backed by alpaca socks. There is not a promise but only a temporary promise to exchange alpaca socks for 2.5 BTC and that temporary promise can change at any time.