The Bitcoin Price Increase: WHY DID NO ONE EXPECT IT?

[jackg]

I believe that the Bitcoin price increase has something to do with the fact that Christmas is only 46 days away! Was no one else expecting this as a result of the economic BOOM of all social classes going out to purchase their Christmas Presents ready for the event. I had already predicted to myself that the bitcoin price will increase around November 1st and will then go back down at around March 1st next year.

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[r0ach]

Nobody saw it coming!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1200114.0

[98problems]

i was expecting it a little bit in my opinion it should have happened earlier as there are sharp fluctuations in the price from time to time

[Wilhelm]

Bitcoin don't give a shit.

Read back for the last 5 years and see people looking for correlations. If there was one you would be rich.

[1Referee]

I definitely didn't expect it. To be more precise, I didn't even expected the price to reach the $300 price level this year. This just shows that no one can predict what Bitcoin will do. We can only guess and that's it. Some say it was China, which I think as well, and some others say it might have to do with the FBI auctioning the last SilkRoad coins. Whatever it was, I enjoyed it to the fullest.

[Christyfrazier]

well when the price started to go up i guess a snowball effect came and helped get the price up insanely high

[mtnsaa]

There was not a single indicator for the price increase really, some say China but we can pinpoint it to something in particular. Bitcoin price can be easily manipulated if some big shots enter the scene. They can actually buy a huge % of it in a day and create a huge wave.

I've being saying that Bitcoin will only flourish when it can become a standard for a particular niche. Perhaps its destiny is forcing Western Union out of business or something similar, but only when something like that happens (and demand increases because it'll be really needed for something and not just to speculate with) only then it will skyrocket.

[NorrisK]

Tension has been building a while before the rise actually. There was more and more pressure against the 250 barrier and it was also quite due for a run actually..

People expected it, but were scared to go in because of the long stagnant period.

[afbitcoins]

No-one? lol plenty have been expecting it, in fact it was a bit overdue from my point of view. I think by no-one you mean, you didn't expect it.

Fasten your seatbelts its only beginning.

[koryu]

We were all hoarding them coins over the year

[MatTheCat]

I believe that the Bitcoin price increase has something to do with the fact that Christmas is only 46 days away! Was no one else expecting this as a result of the economic BOOM of all social classes going out to purchase their Christmas Presents ready for the event. I had already predicted to myself that the bitcoin price will increase around November 1st and will then go back down at around March 1st next year.

I think a lot of people expected a break up to around $360 (where Bitcoin is right now), and then some sort of correction. Indeed, the shorts started piling up at this price point on Finex, and no doubt on the Chinese exchanges also....which is precisely why Bitcoin shot up to $505. A great big dirty fucking short squeeze.

Thing to remember is that Bitcoin is an unregulated market, and you can bet your bottom dollar that their is hooky moneky business going on, on most of the big exchanges, especially those that deal with leverage. The market makers had the buying power, to liquidate the shorts, which pushed up the market way higher than it should have went, whilst the Market Makers sold their coins into the parabolic rise, and are now probably buying back now....or who knows, maybe they plan to be buy back lower still?

[HarryKPeters]

I expected a raise just begin of 2016, since the block halving etc. But so soon and so high.. nope. They all got me on this one.

So guess what, we are halfway there now.. but where will it go now up...or down.. Some insider information will be descretly reviewed and appreciated

[Wexlike]

I believe that the Bitcoin price increase has something to do with the fact that Christmas is only 46 days away! Was no one else expecting this as a result of the economic BOOM of all social classes going out to purchase their Christmas Presents ready for the event. I had already predicted to myself that the bitcoin price will increase around November 1st and will then go back down at around March 1st next year.

In the end of 2014 everyone was telling, that the price is dropping because people are cashing out to buy Christmas presents for they loved ones.

[jacee]

I've seen a lot speculating about it. The thing is bitcoin price escalated too quickly and thus next to impossible it raised to $500 in just a matter of 2 days. So the result is bitcoin price had to drop again and stay at the $300+ line. I yhink wveryone else is expecting for the price to rise again, maybe at the end of november and by 2016.

[arvis]

Everybody expected a price increase before the next halving.
They just weren't sure about the timing. 

[vuduchyld]

Just to echo the sentiment, I think a LOT of people were expecting the price to rise.  It's just that very few real indicators exist as to when that might happen and how much.

I'd further go on to predict that the price will rise again.  And I predict the price will fall again.  And rise.  And fall.  And rise.  (I'll end with that one, but you get the picture).

I just can't tell you when. 

[MatTheCat]

I've seen a lot speculating about it. The thing is bitcoin price escalated too quickly and thus next to impossible it raised to $500 in just a matter of 2 days. So the result is bitcoin price had to drop again and stay at the $300+ line. I yhink wveryone else is expecting for the price to rise again, maybe at the end of november and by 2016.

Like I said, how much of that price increase beyond pretty much where we are now, was due to shorts getting squeezed?

Go take a look at the 12K BTC short position crash on Finex, that accompanied the rally up.

That is what drove the ridiculous run up for sure, and why it came crashing back down so heavily (once the shorts were all out).

[BitcoinVSfiat]

How do you know that no one epected it?
Everybody knew that it'll boost from 2xx to 5xx in november. (Because November is oficially bubble month now)

[zimmah]

A lot of people expect the price to rise, we just don't know exact.y when it will happen

But it's pretty much inevitable that it will rise unless Bitcoin will not be used by anyone.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

( You can't see the eyes of the demon, until him come callin' )
                           \

[NorrisK]

How do you know that no one epected it?
Everybody knew that it'll boost from 2xx to 5xx in november. (Because November is oficially bubble month now)

That is ofcourse bullshit.. Those numbers are arbritary and also in 2014 there was no November bubble month..

It was more likely because of a lot of good news and everybody starting to want it to go up, increasing buy pressure as it took off.

[Amph]

with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now  we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

[Mickeyb]

I think for a simple reason that we were in a 2 year downtrend period where everyone just got used to being negative and not even thinking about being positive.

This is the main reason and even at this moment there are people who believe that it's still not over, the down period. 

[Snail2]

I've expected some rise since the middle of october but never thought that it will be higher than 300, and never thought that it will be such steady rise without wild swings. So, that smooth rally to 500 was quite a surprise. We can explain this upsurge with the Chinese financial restrictions and the good news from the EU, but the volume and price was still surprisingly high.

[HarryKPeters]

I did not expect a rise nor would anyone else, What Mickey states is right, we are in a downtrend with a few 'highs' where just 2 were caused by the good news (insecurity about the yuan, and the greece dillema(.

The only guess would be the upcoming halving. So yes in a way we are just where we are (no news or signals) 2 months ago, only with a higher rate.

[btcxyzzz]

No one expected it?! Buddy, another bubble is long overdue now. 20x Bitcoin price is just around the corner.

[azguard]

with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now  we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

it will be but seem like 400 is wall that need climb first
stable price is good but most here want jump just not to be bump down

[mcplums]

Anyone who tries to pin the rise on specific events is an idiot.

The rally happened for the same reason all previous rallies happened, and the same reason all future rises will happen- you can't have stable/decreasing prices and increasing user adoption for ever. Eventually one of them has to end. And it's always the decreasing/stable prices that ends, not the user adoption.

Any specific events you find may have contributed, but they will never be more than the 'straw the broke the camel's back', the rise would still have happened without them just at a different time.

So it is complete nonsense to say that no one expected the rise. Everyone who isn't an idiot expected it at some point. Of course none of us knew when, but so what?

[arvis]

with the vat free news, i was expecting something, maybe not 500, but surely something that would broke the 300 mark, and we did it, now  we are there stable at 375

i think only you were not expect anything from bitcoin

it will be but seem like 400 is wall that need climb first
stable price is good but most here want jump just not to be bump down

The price seems to be headed back down now.
I thought this rally was sustainable...