Bitcoin's Fate In 2140

[bieberluvr]

It would work out fine if it becomes adopted as a reserve currency or if some nations adopted it as their money.  In that case, it would be reasonable to assume that governments would set up some mining facilities, like the treasury mints money.  They would need to preserve the bitcoin landscape in order to have stable money.

I also think that there will be multiple cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin will be the standard, but there will be alternatives for sure.  Litecoin will possibly still be one of them...  I hope...  I bought some of both.  I'm keeping my eye on Ethereum.  There's lots of active development there, but as I see it, why would we replace BTC with that junk?

[amiryaqot]

Well my from point of view BTCitcoin getting so much adoption as it is pioneer crypto currency and you can make comparison as adoption and investment based charts, now it has more big community still growing as i think that is too early to make any prediction about 2140, i am sure before this it will go to mainstream. 

[2012]

Bitcoin will be the global currency and we will have so much bigger community and much bigger merchants with around the globe adoption.

[USB-S]

Bitcoin is valued at around $1million(most likely duble or even more than that at today's USD price). Fiat is long gone. Some altcoins are blooming and used alternatively to bitcoin. Children are tough economics from elementary school. History classes teach us how banks ruled the world just 100 years ago. Governments don't exist. People form local authorities themselves. There are no hard labor jobs, most jobs are involved in R&D and computer science. People don't have to go to work to earn a living(the same does not apply if you want to make a fortune). Most people have hardware wallets beneath their skin for convenient access.

All in all computers and robots rule us in some way. They make our lives 10x easier, but we're stuck serving this singularity.
It's all in a positive light. I bet we would have colonized mars fully by then and bitcoin would be interplanetary means of exchange.

[Mickeyb]

We don't need to wait until 2140, in 20 years or so block reward will be small enough to see if the network can survive with current proof of work system.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Exactly my thoughts! That's why Satoshi has said that in the near future we will either have many, many transactions or no transactions at all. Bitcoin need to become big much before 2140, like you have said in about 20 years tops.

Then again, if this thing doesn't start living with its full lungs even in 10 years, I don't think we would need miners much more after this.

[TheGeorge]

I also think that there will be multiple cryptocurrencies.  Bitcoin will be the standard, but there will be alternatives for sure.  Litecoin will possibly still be one of them...  I hope...  I bought some of both.  I'm keeping my eye on Ethereum.  There's lots of active development there, but as I see it, why would we replace BTC with that junk?

I used to think bitcoin is gold and litecoin is silver. So I bought some litecoin in the hope that the price ratio of bitcoin to litecoin to be 4:1. But the actual ratio of bitcoin to litecoin is 100:1.
Bitcoin is divisible. There is no need for litcoin like silver to gold. If litecoin does not offer new functions bitcoin does not have, it will not survive.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Not sure but I'll be dead so I don't really give a shit.

2040 however......

[BillyBobZorton]

Bitcoin is valued at around $1million(most likely duble or even more than that at today's USD price). Fiat is long gone. Some altcoins are blooming and used alternatively to bitcoin. Children are tough economics from elementary school. History classes teach us how banks ruled the world just 100 years ago. Governments don't exist. People form local authorities themselves. There are no hard labor jobs, most jobs are involved in R&D and computer science. People don't have to go to work to earn a living(the same does not apply if you want to make a fortune). Most people have hardware wallets beneath their skin for convenient access.

All in all computers and robots rule us in some way. They make our lives 10x easier, but we're stuck serving this singularity.
It's all in a positive light. I bet we would have colonized mars fully by then and bitcoin would be interplanetary means of exchange.

If Bitcoin has taken over the world by 2140 1 million per coin will be nothing, we would be talking more. The debt alone of USA could make 1 million per coin right now... so do the basic calculations and you'll see how this is nothing in the big picture. I think we can reach 1 million in our lifetime.

[Possum577]

Your Estimation Target Date is too far , i don't think any of us will live till 2140 , may be the situation of bitcoin will be far away and different than prediction , May be name of bitcoin will change , may be the monetary system of this planet will change and we could transact just by thinking.
More over the price will be To the Pluto(much high than to the moon)

Obviously none of us will be alive, so you mean that humans will be extinct by 2140?

If Bitcoin has taken over the world by 2140 1 million per coin will be nothing, we would be talking more. The debt alone of USA could make 1 million per coin right now... so do the basic calculations and you'll see how this is nothing in the big picture. I think we can reach 1 million in our lifetime.

Good thing bitcoin is counted to 8 digits to the right of the decimal...coffee, pizza, gas, milk will all cost Satoshis!

[Pierre 2]

I think fees will be so higher than today so they will not need more mining.
I don't think die situation to happen to first ever cryptocurrency.

[Amph]

as i said you need two halving to force the price to increase or basically every miners will be out of the game, which mean bitcoin is dead

if the price remain in the range of 200-300 when the 2020 halving will kick in, no efficiency will save the miners, so in 5 years you will know about the fate of bitcoin

[maudevang]

I think I well be dead XD

Well I hope so than for other people

[oblivi]

as i said you need two halving to force the price to increase or basically every miners will be out of the game, which mean bitcoin is dead

if the price remain in the range of 200-300 when the 2020 halving will kick in, no efficiency will save the miners, so in 5 years you will know about the fate of bitcoin

There are theories that are considering a decentralization of mining in the future. Namely, imagine a future were solar panel technology is cheap and very improved: Anyone will be able to mine through that basically for free and passively. Just an example.

[franky1]

So, everyone knows that there will be no more block rewards when we reach ~2140. But what do you guys think will happen after?

I personally visualise 2 possibilities:

- Bitcoin is already widely adopted, so the giant community will keep the system running and functioning. Maybe not as easily as today, but with a big enough community, the transaction fees will be high enough for miners to keep on doing their thing.

imagine we kept to a 2cent tx fee..
right now with a total 4200tx per block limit(1mb). the max tx income for solving a block is $84.00
if the block limit is raised to 20mb, the max tx income possible per block is $1680
if the block limit is raised to 32mb, the max tx income possible per block is $2688

so based on limits proposed and known about in the next decade $2688 is the top miner income, where users wont be too upset to pay a fee..
sooo. although tx fee's wont really be fully essential in the next decade. it is something to think about in the 15+ years, when there is only 1mill coins left to mine.

so lets think about the yearly income of miners solving 32mb blocks.
$2688/block=$387072/day=$141,281,280/year

at a $141million potential income stream per year.. even 3 farms spending $20mill each on equipment can still make $27mill profit each per year..
which will keep difficulty high as there is soo much equipment hashing..

or on the flip side,

1 million people spending $60.00 each, will get $141.00 in return($81 profit), each year.. which will keep the blockchain decentralised..
either way, there is still profit and incentive to keep doing it.

-Bitcoin has a small community, much like today, and starts to crumble without support of miners, and mining fees will become huge, and so the users will leave. Bitcoins will be left in the transaction pool, and the Bitcoin ecosystem will come to a halt.[/b]

Are there any possibilities I might have missed? What do you guys think?

less miners means more slices of pie for those who remain..
yea we might see 10 farms turn into 3.. but either way it will still find an equilibrium where there are a nice amount of miners who can profit..

just remember it only requires 3 miners.. (big or small) to keep an honest system.. so relax you are thinking about problems decades away, which will naturally sort itself out by changing from different strategies for mining.. and as i said there is upto $141mill potential yearly income, so thats always going to be tempting

[cohnhead]

as i said you need two halving to force the price to increase or basically every miners will be out of the game, which mean bitcoin is dead

if the price remain in the range of 200-300 when the 2020 halving will kick in, no efficiency will save the miners, so in 5 years you will know about the fate of bitcoin

There are theories that are considering a decentralization of mining in the future. Namely, imagine a future were solar panel technology is cheap and very improved: Anyone will be able to mine through that basically for free and passively. Just an example.

couldn't agree more....and like I posted above.
nuclear fusion will be commercially available in 20-30 years. and in 50 years, residential applications will be commonplace. With such cheap electricity 21's chip or chips like it may truly supplant large mining operations, due to the sheer number of chips that can be deployed. Decentralization on the largest scale.

[jackg]

So, everyone knows that there will be no more block rewards when we reach ~2140. But what do you guys think will happen after?

I personally visualise 2 possibilities:

- Bitcoin is already widely adopted, so the giant community will keep the system running and functioning. Maybe not as easily as today, but with a big enough community, the transaction fees will be high enough for miners to keep on doing their thing.

-Bitcoin has a small community, much like today, and starts to crumble without support of miners, and mining fees will become huge, and so the users will leave. Bitcoins will be left in the transaction pool, and the Bitcoin ecosystem will come to a halt.

Are there any possibilities I might have missed? What do you guys think?

Bitcoin transaction payments will help keep it alive. I feel there will be a forced automatic transaction payment of 1% of the total funds sent. Unless I live to 140 years old (may be possible in my home country with the NHS if it is funded better in the next few vital years)! That would also mean that I will be working for 100 years before I could retire!

[faridkifly]

I think that is possibilities that will happen is Bitcoin has a small community, much like today
andin 2140 i'll be dead, so i dont know how bitcoin will be in 2140 

[lottery248]

we are not sure that if the cryptography is still strong in 2140. 
if it is still strong, then we don't need to worry.

[iv4n]

Will we be doomed by 2140. After reading what u all wrote here I started to think about fate of this world. Can world survive until 2140? If we can I believe it will be like in some movies, tehnology will be everywhere. For the one who can pay for new things of course. So probably bitcoin will be like dollar now, if they dont make some new one. If I understand good this alt coins, someone very rich (read "banks") can make new coin and with good strategy, people on right places, huge investments they can push their coin very easliy.

[TheGeorge]

We don't need to wait until 2140, in 20 years or so block reward will be small enough to see if the network can survive with current proof of work system.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

The fee has risen a lot since the stress tests. It makes me think the stress tests benefit the miners a lot.