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基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
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Topic: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格 (Read 1764 times)
DeepLee
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基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 06:45:06 AM
#1
如果您了解Augur项目。
http://www.augur.net/
欢迎加入 QQ群 " Augur 比特币价格预测" , 群号: 426982365 .
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 08:19:07 AM
#2
基于“群众智慧”原理的市场预测。
什么是“群众智慧”? 看了下面的小故事,您就理解了。
2007年,哥仑比亚商业学院教授Michael Mauboussin让他的73个学生估计一个瓶子里糖豆的数量。
估计的结果从250到4100。实际上糖豆的数量是1116粒。平均每个学生的偏差是700,就是说平均偏差62%。
但是,不管学生们的判断有多么差劲,他们猜测的平均值是1151,只有3%的偏差。
这项研究被重复过多次,但是结果总是这样。
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 09:39:12 AM
#3
比特币价格可以预测?也许长期可以把,短期绝无可能。
严重怀疑。
DeepLee
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 10:26:22 AM
#4
金融市场的预测,都是相对预测。 任何预测都不可能100%准确。
但是,只要你比别人准确一些,你就可能获利更多。 这就是 “群众智慧” 魅力所在。
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 12:59:15 PM
#5
一切预测都是徒劳无功的,因为市场也可以人为操纵。
DeepLee
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 15, 2015, 01:30:17 PM
#6
当市场体量很大时, 人为操纵并不容易。
基于“群众智慧”的去中心化市场预测在人类历史上还从未实现过。 Augur项目致力于此。
人类社会对“群众智慧”的了解和运用,还未真正开始。直到区块链的发明,使之普及成为可能。理论上基于“群众智慧”的去中心化市场预测要比单个人的预测好很多倍,但最终能做到什么程度,目前并不知道。虽然Augur项目还未正式发布,但我们这个群正在用一种迂回的方法开展这个工作,或许几个月之后,我们就能比较清楚。
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
July 17, 2015, 04:43:00 AM
#7
预测比特币还是不靠谱的。虽然长期趋势可以预测。
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Re: 基于群众智慧原理预测比特币价格
January 02, 2016, 06:25:09 AM
#8
Quote from: DeepLee on July 15, 2015, 01:30:17 PM
当市场体量很大时, 人为操纵并不容易。
基于“群众智慧”的去中心化市场预测在人类历史上还从未实现过。 Augur项目致力于此。
人类社会对“群众智慧”的了解和运用,还未真正开始。直到区块链的发明,使之普及成为可能。理论上基于“群众智慧”的去中心化市场预测要比单个人的预测好很多倍,但最终能做到什么程度,目前并不知道。虽然Augur项目还未正式发布,但我们这个群正在用一种迂回的方法开展这个工作,或许几个月之后,我们就能比较清楚。
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