Weekend Bitcoin Markets Wrapup: Bear Trend Still In Play

[bitcoinmarkets]

Originally posted here: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/weekend-wrapup-bear-trend-still-in-play I'd love to hear any responses and engage in a discussion of where you guys think price is going in the short or longer term.



We finally got some action on Sunday as the weekend came to a close. As the 15M candle chart above shows, a sharp 7% drop in spot markets across the board hit. This was a clear sign that the bear trend that we have had since the $500 test is fully in play.

To get a better appreciation for this let's zoom out to the 6H candles:



The trend is clearly down, and has been for a good week. And as I noted earlier here: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/bitcoin-markets-signaling-bearish-sentiment, the premiums in the futures market have deflated to discounts and flat, and the CNY/USD premium has also disappeared. Barring some serious Chinese bull FOMO, we are in for a continuation of this bear trend in the short-run. This may be in effect potentially until 2016 where we may start trying to move back up as the Halvening and more exciting news comes through the pipeline.

There's also still hope that the $300 support level holds, and if it does, we could at least start carving out a range higher than we have been in most of 2015 with $300 being the resistance level. Year-to-date resistance becoming support would be a major point in favor of the bull case.

However, for now, the bears are winning.

[1715202596]

1715202596

[Outlander]

check this Bitcoin Soars Near Highest Since 2014 As China Outflows Accelerate The surge in the price of btc is due to the Chinese capital control,  the fundamental factors are the main reasons not the technical factors. IMO the surge has attracted many attention to bitcoin. Many ppl are buying it. The price will be stable over $300 from now on.

[bitcoinmarkets]

check this Bitcoin Soars Near Highest Since 2014 As China Outflows Accelerate The surge in the price of btc is due to the Chinese capital control,  the fundamental factors are the main reasons not the technical factors.

I agree completely. I would not state otherwise

The premium on CNY to USD exchanges was a clear indication that it was devalution fears and capital control evasions that were driving the whole move upward. However, now it has come down and the exchanges are basically in line. This to me indicates the Chinese hype has died down -- perhaps pressure from Chinese govt on OKCoin/Houbi which changed things behind the scenes? I don't know, that's pure speculation. But that shows demand has quieted now .

[MatTheCat]

However, for now, the bears are winning.

Whilst Bitcoin could go down a bit more, the vast majority of the net selling pressure is done. Look at the 1 Day momentum indicators, still a bit more room for more downward movement of the price, but not much.

Either we stablise from here before slowly building back up, or Bitcoin finally finds it's base at the $150-$500 Fib retracement zone, at around $280 before finally bottoming out.

Me personally, I am beginning to think that the bears have run out of steam.

[afbitcoins]

If $300 doesn't hold its still not reason to panic, price will find strong support at $270.

Bear trend might be quite short lived.



https://afbitcoins.wordpress.com/2015/11/16/bitcoin-primed/

[Dilla]

We're still above 300, bear trend? No correction from a parabolic rise? Yes.