That is it. Bitcoin is totally unpredictable. This market is fake.

[MatTheCat]

How can this be suprise? After 1 year of analysing i stopped following the analyze 'guru's' with their fibonacci etc.

It is manipulated > yes
Is that bad > no

With every price rise more and more people get into bitcoin. And now it is just about waiting...

If only 1 multinational will 'do' something with bitcoin others will follow and more people will adopt it. Hence the market will be supply & demand without big whales making the market.

I dunno, there are some pretty sharp cookies out there.....there is a dude called Brian Beamish for one, who has a very good track record of calling Bitcoin......but did I listen to him when the top was in? Did I listen to him when he suggested a retracement to the long term 61.8% Fib level before he would even consider going long Bitcoin again? Did I listen to him when he posted  on twitter whether they were really going to take this back down to $300?

Nope!

Did I fuck. During the pump n dump, I went from being an early investor and early proft taker, to FOMO merchant, and watched substantial gains turn to substantial losses, and I was bag holding, and I was blocking out my anguish with copious doses of hopium, which was clouding mv outlook.

However, in Bitcoin especially, Fib retracements and Gann support/resitance lines really do seem to hold. Yesterday when I went net short, before being frightened back into market (at a loss) by this whale and his bullshit activity, I had first zone of resistance on the anticipated drop at $315. This was based on both Fib and Gann supports. If that doesn't hold, then it is back down to ~$280, where if we are in a bull market, support definitely will hold around this area. If we go there, we will likely get a puncture right through this support, before a strong rebound up to the $280 support level, which will hold. How to determine whether the market is more likely to go down to test support or go up to test resistance, is best determined using momentum indicators and gauging where the balance of probabilty lies. This is what I done, and decided that the balance of probability was a test of lower support levels, and it turns out I was right, except in between then and now, was that fucking whale on Bitstamp and my impulse reactionary response to what I thought was the market defying all expectation, and breaking up.

Go open up a BTC chart on Trading View. Go and look at any part of Bitcoins trading history, take significant highs and lows, and apply Fib and Gann to them. You may be astonished with how so many significant market turning points occur in the zones pin pointed by the Fib and Gann drawings.

As for right now, For a short term trader, Bitcoin is a no trade in my view. We have already had most of the downside momentum, but there is still room for more. For a long term investor, Bitcoin is still in a no buy zone for the same reasons. If it gets down to mid-upper $200s, then that is a definite buy, and will be where the pumpers and dumpers load up their lorries. For a stupid fucking bag holding, profit squandering, loss realising tosser like me, Bitcoin is a sit and hold and take the short term pain, cos in the long run, it is good until at least $750......although I will no doubt be back to trading soon enough, chopping and changing my mind at the least little quirk in the market, pissing $$$ all over the floor in my usual style.

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[STT]

Very simple trading rule, never sell lower than you bought, even if the price movement scares the shit out of you

That is not trading at that point, its investment and you have to risk that the loss may be total which is possible with anything.   Trading will sell at a loss as and when the original premise is no longer true, that typically a short term rise has not occured.    What he might do is consider options of some kind, which is risk but capped off to certain set gains and losses.  Total risk, never selling, hodl or however its put is step in the wrong direction except with really small amounts especially on a personal investor who cannot write off the losses over six years like limited company may

[Wilhelm]

Welcome to the world of unregulated currency trading.

[jbreher]

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

One theory is that Bitcoin is a new asset class somewhere between a currency and a hard-money commodity, ultimately to capture a large share of the world's store of value. If indeed this be true, the only globally useful aspect of trading is in price discovery for this new monetary asset. Chaotic churn should be expected in such a case - whether or not whales are moving markets. TA -- being based upon market heuristics driven by crowd psychology from extrapolations from other asset classes -- is likely to be fully inapplicable.

If your trading strategies are not working, you may need a new strategy. If you believe in the long-term success of bitcoin, a workable strategy might be to buy as much as you can afford today, and hodl as long as you can stand it -- as in years.

[MatTheCat]

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

Both.

But one cannot rely on TA when there are motherfucking whales swimming around the exchanges, as they can turn everything on it's head at the click of a finger.....and it would be naive to assume that a good proportion of the market movers don't have perfect market knowledge, in terms of where all the other little fishies are placing their bets.

[AtheistAKASaneBrain]

Yeah, it never made any sense to me believing the fairy tale of technical analysis. Just because a figure may represent itself in the future given past performance, doesn't guarantee that it will. The big players can pump and dump at any second giving you a ridiculously long candle and you better hope is not red. Just buy and HOLD.

[jbreher]

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

one cannot rely on TA when there are motherfucking whales swimming around the exchanges

Exactly my point. It can't be both.

To return to OP's opening salvo... fake? WTF does 'fake market' mean? It's a market, whether you like the parameters or not. If you have proof of endemic front-running or similar, I could concur with fake. But 'unpredictable' != 'fake'.

[Wilhelm]

A fake market would be figuring out that a front running exchange has been lying about volume and price to get people into gold-rush mode.
Then faking a market crash so people would be anxious to get out. Then keeping the difference for yourself

Hey this sounds like MtGOX only they screwed up doing this  

[BlindMayorBitcorn]

Bitcoin isn't an investment. There. Done. Kind of..

[The Sceptical Chymist]

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

This is just a few players with the power to defy all time learned principles of market mechanics, in order to deprive the maximum of unsuspecting punters of their USD and Bitcoins, but mostly USD.

This market is fucked.

This is also known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

I don't buy emh for bitcoin at all.  There is basically no way to truly value it, no earnings or dividends, etc.  It's purely speculative.  It's a global craps table!

[jaredboice]

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

Both.

But one cannot rely on TA when there are motherfucking whales swimming around the exchanges, as they can turn everything on it's head at the click of a finger.....and it would be naive to assume that a good proportion of the market movers don't have perfect market knowledge, in terms of where all the other little fishies are placing their bets.

This is why I advise (especially for newbs) against stops and limit orders.  This is likely how they shake people from their positions

[pliv84]

Your logic is flawed. No real markets are predictable.

If Bitcoin price was predictable, then I would believe that the market was fake. The very fact that it is not predictable means that it is working efficiently.

If lots of people wake up one day and decide to buy Bitcoin, then the price goes up. If more people want to sell, it goes down. It's as simple as that. You can't predict what the masses will do at any given point in time.

Show me any market - stocks, bonds, commodities, etc. - that is predictable. None of them are.

[Ibian]

Bitcoin isn't an investment. There. Done. Kind of..

It is to me. Keep your dogma to yourself, it is whatever people treat it as.

[Ibian]

OP, you sound rather conflicted. Is it whales splashing, or is it amenable to TA? Pick a thesis and stick. It can't be both.

one cannot rely on TA when there are motherfucking whales swimming around the exchanges

Exactly my point. It can't be both.

To return to OP's opening salvo... fake? WTF does 'fake market' mean? It's a market, whether you like the parameters or not. If you have proof of endemic front-running or similar, I could concur with fake. But 'unpredictable' != 'fake'.

Mat has a need to complain. A need for drama. No point looking for any deeper meaning, some people are just that way.

[Ibian]

This Bullshit aint the work of an aggregate market.

This is just a few players with the power to defy all time learned principles of market mechanics, in order to deprive the maximum of unsuspecting punters of their USD and Bitcoins, but mostly USD.

This market is fucked.

This is also known as the Efficient Market Hypothesis.

I don't buy emh for bitcoin at all.  There is basically no way to truly value it, no earnings or dividends, etc.  It's purely speculative.  It's a global craps table!

Bitcoin cost money to make. There is your value.

[Dilla]

I hate to burst the speculation bubble of everyone on here but TA is pretty much as useful as astrology: you can draw fucking conclusion from the position of the sun, mars, and venus and predict the price to rise tomorrow, but guess what, you have no fucking clue. I know there's a lot of hardcore TA people on here, and yes sometimes it works, but nobody can have perfect TA.

[The Sceptical Chymist]

I hate to burst the speculation bubble of everyone on here but TA is pretty much as useful as astrology: you can draw fucking conclusion from the position of the sun, mars, and venus and predict the price to rise tomorrow, but guess what, you have no fucking clue. I know there's a lot of hardcore TA people on here, and yes sometimes it works, but nobody can have perfect TA.

^^^^^^Agree 100%.  TA is completely nutty.  FA is useful but I don't believe it can be applied to bitcoin for the reasons I gave above.

[dothebeats]

That's why from the very beginning most people are always stating that you should never, ever go all-in in bitcoin as it is NOT the same market in which you can apply all those TA aspects and strats to at least get a 'hint' of what's coming. The movements in this market are more manipulated rather than organic, that is what I observed in over a year of trading using bitcoins.

[Ektra]

I learned important lessons about controlling impulse, exercising discipline, keeping emotions out the equation, and done some meticulous TA, and concluded that the market was far more likely to go down, than go up ..........
.............................................................................
............ I panic bought, at some $6 more than I orginally sold for, and witnessed the shit that was to follow. So now I am back in Bitcoin, at a higher price than which I exited the market (after having already taken horrendous losses on pump n dump), and totally against the momentum of the market, which I happened to have correctly read.

Hmm.....

[n691309]

I don;t think that bitcoin is a bad coin, it is a good innovation but the bad thing is that it is very much manipulated (so much pump and dumps)