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Author Topic: SMA50/100  (Read 1151 times)
keewee
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November 17, 2012, 12:14:35 AM
 #1

I'm new to this so I'm not sure this is a good indicator but I've noticed the price is now above the SMA50 and SMA100 lines. Is this long term bullish? Is it important at all?


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November 17, 2012, 12:17:06 AM
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It matters in certain trading strategies.

I'm not sure it says anything, in and of itself, about the long-term health of the asset.

If there is something that will make Bitcoin succeed, it is growth of utility - greater quantity and variety of goods and services offered for BTC. If there is something that will make Bitcoin fail, it is the prevalence of users convinced that BTC is a magic box that will turn them into millionaires, and of the con-artists who have followed them here to devour them.
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November 17, 2012, 12:55:28 AM
 #3

I'm new to this so I'm not sure this is a good indicator but I've noticed the price is now above the SMA50 and SMA100 lines. Is this long term bullish? Is it important at all?
only if it holds the back test

Los desesperados publican que lo inventó el rey que rabió, porque todo son en el rabias y mas rabias, disgustos y mas disgustos, pezares y mas pezares; si el que compra algunas partidas vé que baxan, rabia de haver comprado; si suben, rabia de que no compró mas; si compra, suben, vende, gana y buelan aun á mas alto precio del que ha vendido; rabia de que vendió por menor precio: si no compra ni vende y ván subiendo, rabia de que haviendo tenido impulsos de comprar, no llegó á lograr los impulsos; si van baxando, rabia de que, haviendo tenido amagos de vender, no se resolvió á gozar los amagos; si le dan algun consejo y acierta, rabia de que no se lo dieron antes; si yerra, rabia de que se lo dieron; con que todo son inquietudes, todo arrepentimientos, tododelirios, luchando siempre lo insufrible con lo feliz, lo indomito con lo tranquilo y lo rabioso con lo deleytable.
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November 17, 2012, 11:31:51 AM
 #4

Last similar cross in march 2012 was with 200k selloff
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November 17, 2012, 03:36:51 PM
Last edit: November 17, 2012, 04:12:33 PM by mobodick
 #5

I'm new to this so I'm not sure this is a good indicator but I've noticed the price is now above the SMA50 and SMA100 lines. Is this long term bullish? Is it important at all?


The number of line crosses increases with time resolution so you will get a different signal when looking at different time resolutions.

You will first need to decide on a time interval and then see which values for SMA work well as an indicator.
I would say that for long term indicators at this time resolution you would have to use a much higher value. 400+ or something, propably even more.
keewee
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November 20, 2012, 05:40:53 AM
 #6

Last similar cross in march 2012 was with 200k selloff

Hmmm yes you're right, and it looks remarkably similar to the current situation...

March:


November:

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mobodick
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November 20, 2012, 08:21:42 AM
 #7

Last similar cross in march 2012 was with 200k selloff

Hmmm yes you're right, and it looks remarkably similar to the current situation...

March:


November:



They are not similar tho.
The difference in SMA tells you that the context is different for both graph fragments. The big movements around it are different.
And the fact that you look at daily aggregates tells you you don't see any details.
So the graphs look similar at this particular level, it is the result of dissimilar movements.
In other words, you can't make a prediction based on these similarities. It's more like a freak occurence.
keewee
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November 20, 2012, 09:33:04 AM
 #8

Last similar cross in march 2012 was with 200k selloff

Hmmm yes you're right, and it looks remarkably similar to the current situation...

March:
https://i.imgur.com/PHV7J.jpg

November:
https://i.imgur.com/FuUKH.jpg


They are not similar tho.
The difference in SMA tells you that the context is different for both graph fragments. The big movements around it are different.
And the fact that you look at daily aggregates tells you you don't see any details.
So the graphs look similar at this particular level, it is the result of dissimilar movements.
In other words, you can't make a prediction based on these similarities. It's more like a freak occurence.


Ah ok, thanks, I understand now. There's a lot to learn. I only showed a month because it was easier to see the detail and I used the daily chart because I understood that this is the best to see long term trends. I guess it won't be long before we know one way or the other  Smiley

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November 20, 2012, 12:53:36 PM
 #9

Indeed, similar. Market always tries to replay past figures in future. Like every human Wink
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