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Author Topic: Bitcoin price cycles  (Read 25182 times)
Fakhoury
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June 04, 2016, 12:06:16 AM
 #141

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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hacknoid
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June 04, 2016, 10:48:14 PM
 #142

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Looking at the cycles, this looks like the pause (sideways/gradual uptrend) before the main leg up.

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Discussion: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=907618.0
sandiman
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June 04, 2016, 11:19:44 PM
 #143

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Looking at the cycles, this looks like the pause (sideways/gradual uptrend) before the main leg up.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1498855.0

Correction.

Beware that ATH is not at around 1000$ but around 700$ because of the increased supply since then.


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Luthier
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June 04, 2016, 11:53:36 PM
 #144

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.
Fakhoury
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June 04, 2016, 11:56:09 PM
 #145

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Looking at the cycles, this looks like the pause (sideways/gradual uptrend) before the main leg up.

But isn't it upnormal to go up leg, correction, sideways and so on.

Do you see what happened today and few days ago to be normal ?

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
MingLee
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June 05, 2016, 12:08:58 AM
 #146

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.
This is something I've been commenting on recently though, we haven't had a halving of this scale and with so much money on the line with such a larg community, and thus a lot of historical charts might not be accurate for what is actually going to happen. This halving right now is going to have to end up being the default or experimental halving, and that's how we'll determine how a large market reacts to a halving. Just seeing something in the past, when the community was noticeably smaller, is not a good representation.
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June 05, 2016, 05:34:06 AM
 #147

re: profit-taking

rpietila always said that trying to time the market will probably not work very well and that you should sell a certain percentage of your holdings whenever the price rises (e.g. sell 10% every time the price doubles) and just stick to that plan.  But he also said that if you really want to time the market, then it would be better to wait until after the initial crash than to sell too early. Tons of people who were holding coins from $5 ended up selling at $20 when the price was heading to $266.

This round, $420-$440 may very well be the equivalent of $5. Don't be the guy who sells everything at the equivalent of $20. Be the guy who sees the $266 peak, watches the crash, and then "sadly" sells at $150.

Year 2021
Bitcoin Supply: ~90% mined
Supply Inflation: <1.8%
AlgoSwan
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June 05, 2016, 05:36:32 AM
 #148

re: profit-taking

rpietila always said that trying to time the market will probably not work very well and that you should sell a certain percentage of your holdings whenever the price rises (e.g. sell 10% every time the price doubles) and just stick to that plan.  But he also said that if you really want to time the market, then it would be wait until after the initial crash than to sell too early. Tons of people who were holding coins from $5 ended up selling at $20 when the price was heading to $266.

This round, $420-$440 may very well be the equivalent of $5. Don't be the guy who sells everything at the equivalent of $20. Be the guy who sees the $266 peak, watches the crash, and then "sadly" sells at $150.

Excellent analogy. With this thinking we most probably will see 4 digits very soon!

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sandiman
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June 05, 2016, 07:35:26 AM
 #149

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.

It is indeed very good to compare the market with his history, but one should never look for the exact same patterns. Market is like an artist, and it will never reproduce two times the same drawing...


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AlgoSwan
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June 05, 2016, 07:40:01 AM
 #150

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.

It is indeed very good to compare the market with his history, but one should never look for the exact same patterns. Market is like an artist, and it will never reproduce two times the same drawing...
Yes market is like an artist always follow the supply and demand dynamics in the long run. We all know what is halving and how it will change the supply dynamics.

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June 05, 2016, 09:27:58 AM
 #151

Is it time to start thinking about how we're going to call the top?  Even long-term holders might be well advised to learn how to identify it and sell some BTC to capitalize on the following downswing.

1. Looking back at the previous bull runs, it looks like we can expect to be strongly in the green for about 6-7 weeks.

2. The rallies tend to culminate in the price doubling within 7-10 days.

So, assuming this is one of the serious bull runs, I'd say if we've been in the green for at least 6 weeks, AND the price doubles within 7-10 days, it's reasonable to assume we've reached the top or close to it.  From there, expect at LEAST a 62% drop before buying back in if you're trading it.

It is indeed very good to compare the market with his history, but one should never look for the exact same patterns. Market is like an artist, and it will never reproduce two times the same drawing...

It is human nature to try and find patterns in random data.  Smiley
If it was possible to predict price movements, a lot of people would become very rich just by trading.

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June 05, 2016, 12:08:44 PM
 #152



Things only become clear after the fact... This looks more correct now.


we're gunna need a bigger chart.

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June 05, 2016, 12:13:05 PM
 #153

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Looking at the cycles, this looks like the pause (sideways/gradual uptrend) before the main leg up.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1498855.0

Correction.

Beware that ATH is not at around 1000$ but around 700$ because of the increased supply since then.

No, the ATH is still the same, mining is not a stock split.

And were not talking about the market cap, but the price per bitcoin.
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June 05, 2016, 01:07:33 PM
 #154

I want to take the chance since you are online now, is this it ?

Will reply to your latest reply ASAP.

Sorry bud, missed ya.  Was on just briefly earlier, just to look at chatter about the current price.

Don't worry buddy Wink

What I wanted to say, regarding the current up leg, is this it (heading towards new ATH) ?

Looking at the cycles, this looks like the pause (sideways/gradual uptrend) before the main leg up.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1498855.0

Correction.

Beware that ATH is not at around 1000$ but around 700$ because of the increased supply since then.

No, the ATH is still the same, mining is not a stock split.

And were not talking about the market cap, but the price per bitcoin.

I agree with you but as supply increase it get much harder to go to 1000$. IMO i think ATH should be pro-rated to total supply now vs before.


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zimmah
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June 05, 2016, 01:39:09 PM
 #155

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.
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June 05, 2016, 02:43:27 PM
 #156

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.

I agree with this, in matters of weeks, we raised $2b.

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June 05, 2016, 03:16:54 PM
 #157

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.

I totally agree on that !! just saying 1000 (don't remember exact number) for me is more than ath at today's supply even though he could be a big psychological resistance


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Denker
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June 05, 2016, 03:17:17 PM
 #158

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.

Aboslutely right!
For instance just 1% of the gold market alone would push Bitcoin up to a $70 billion market cap and a price of ~$4400/BTC!
Or due to Panama papers, offshore tax heaven accounts shall have a size of $20-$30 trillion. Just imagine if only...meh better not! Grin

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June 05, 2016, 03:32:01 PM
 #159

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.

Aboslutely right!
For instance just 1% of the gold market alone would push Bitcoin up to a $70 billion market cap and a price of ~$4400/BTC!
Or due to Panama papers, offshore tax heaven accounts shall have a size of $20-$30 trillion. Just imagine if only...meh better not! Grin


Bitcoin is not a private ledger ... but other alts propose privacy.


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zimmah
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June 05, 2016, 03:48:41 PM
 #160

Meh $9 billion is still tiny in terms of market cap

once we get to the trillions it will become harder to grow, but while we're still tony, it shouldn't matter much if we're at $8, $9 or $10 billion.

Aboslutely right!
For instance just 1% of the gold market alone would push Bitcoin up to a $70 billion market cap and a price of ~$4400/BTC!
Or due to Panama papers, offshore tax heaven accounts shall have a size of $20-$30 trillion. Just imagine if only...meh better not! Grin


Bitcoin is not a private ledger ... but other alts propose privacy.

true, but it's hard to track down which wallet belongs to which person.
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