Bitcoin price cycles

[ether19]

I think bitcoin is getting dumped by crypto users for other altcoins and due to lack of big number new users or lets say whales, bitcoin has not crossed it's all time highs even after halving. We have seen altcoins such as Monereo making good moves.

And this block size debate along with hacking news (Bitfinex) has it's ill effect on bitcoin. Nevertheless, I am positive on the growth and adoption of bitcoin and Cryptos as a whole in the coming years.

[1713309365]

1713309365

[M28MmickT]

I think bitcoin is getting dumped by crypto users for other altcoins and due to lack of big number new users or lets say whales, bitcoin has not crossed it's all time highs even after halving. We have seen altcoins such as Monereo making good moves.

And this block size debate along with hacking news (Bitfinex) has it's ill effect on bitcoin. Nevertheless, I am positive on the growth and adoption of bitcoin and Cryptos as a whole in the coming years.

Altcoin prices are what they are because of Bitcoin price, biggest crypto/fiat exchanges use mostly Bitcoin.

[SONG GEET]

If price of bitcoin doesn't fluctuate traders will not actively trade bitcoin in daily basis. Price needs to get dumped and pumped and same goes on for traders to make profit on day trading.

[uki]

Hacknoid, first of all, thanks for the long-waited update of the cycle charts. That looks great, isn't it?
I guess it was to be expected that the peak price ratio will get lower quickly in each cycle - that is what we wrote in the very beginning.
But I am still surprised how quickly it went down. 2x only already in the third cycle implicates that we are at the very important crossroads.
We need a break fundamentally that will cause new money to flow into Bitcoin or otherwise we run out of fuel for further exponential growth. That latter option is also something that is very typically observe in the nature with exponential growths. Take the colony of bacteria for example. They grow nearly exponentially as long as there is food to feed their population. As soon as there are too many bacteria relative to food supply, the exponential population growth breaks.

[hacknoid]

Hacknoid, first of all, thanks for the long-waited update of the cycle charts. That looks great, isn't it?

My pleasure... It's both interesting and boring that the cycles seems to be repeating once again, at a lower scale.  It at least has tempered my expectations for a meteoric rise again, at least for the moment.  Overall trend still looks good, and definitely still bullish, which is great.

I guess it was to be expected that the peak price ratio will get lower quickly in each cycle - that is what we wrote in the very beginning.
But I am still surprised how quickly it went down. 2x only already in the third cycle implicates that we are at the very important crossroads.
We need a break fundamentally that will cause new money to flow into Bitcoin or otherwise we run out of fuel for further exponential growth. That latter option is also something that is very typically observe in the nature with exponential growths. Take the colony of bacteria for example. They grow nearly exponentially as long as there is food to feed their population. As soon as there are too many bacteria relative to food supply, the exponential population growth breaks.

That's a great analogy;  you are right - nature always balances these things out, and anything that lives in a confined environment will slow it's growth once it reaches the maximums resources it has available.  (Have you ever seen a goldfish that lives in a big pond?  They grow huge!  But they never get that big living in a fishbowl..)

I agree we have reached a local saturation point in Bitcoin; whether LN and SW take enough of the load off the filling blocks remains to be seen, but even that (and others) are merely short term solutions (LN is not really limited in extra capacity it provides, but is not going to be useful in all cases).  Hopefully the community will embrace all options so that Bitcoin is no longer seen as being limited in capacity, and a whole new realm of people and companies will embrace the tech.

Even with current limitations, however, there still seems to be room for price rise.  However I also don't expect the exponential growth to return until a fundamental change occurs.  Here's hoping...

[hacknoid]

So back in September I posted an updated trend; the repeating cycle pattern may to be breaking down (I'll have to look into it a bit more carefully to see), however, I also posted this:

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):

I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear.  This is what you get:



From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle.  And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!

[Fakhoury]

Thanks for the update my dear friend Hacknoid, but I've a strong feeling that the above chart will be violated as we will get towards $900+-$1K+ before 12/31 

[rizkyhiw]

Thanks for the update my dear friend Hacknoid, but I've a strong feeling that the above chart will be violated as we will get towards $900+-$1K+ before 12/31 

hope so, i just don't think there is a pattern like what hacknoid stated above
the pattern might will not remain the same, especially if we talking about bitcoin
the demands always be flickle notably when the price as high as now
most people will think to sell rather than to keep buying more , this situation drive price to dropped, by the end of this year before 12/31 i guess there will be a high drop.

[hacknoid]

Thanks for the update my dear friend Hacknoid, but I've a strong feeling that the above chart will be violated as we will get towards $900+-$1K+ before 12/31 

   I sure hope so - would be nice.  But I'll take a rise to $1k+ sometime in the first half of 2017... that's fine with me. 

Nice to see you're still around, Fak - still missing the "everything bullish" news items!

hope so, i just don't think there is a pattern like what hacknoid stated above
the pattern might will not remain the same, especially if we talking about bitcoin
the demands always be flickle notably when the price as high as now
most people will think to sell rather than to keep buying more , this situation drive price to dropped, by the end of this year before 12/31 i guess there will be a high drop.

Things have definitely been changing... as I indicated back in the spring, all indicators are that something is/will be changing this cycle.  I don't know if that means a (temporary) stagnation, mass adoption or something else, but the overall cycles of price keep repeating, sometimes on different scales in time or value.

Let's also not forget that there is a natural volatility to the market (as there is with all markets) - nothing goes up in a straight line.  However, in 7 years of trading, Bitcoin price has been rising overall.  The number of people that own/invest in Bitcoin is still quite tiny, and as it gains ground worldwide it will continue to increase in price. 

I actually found 2 places to use BTC in the wild this week, just by chance.  We haven't crossed the chasm yet, but we are definitely firming up the technology and the committed user base.  Again, just hope one way or another block size issues are resolved.

And just to leave on a positive note, here's a happy image for you:



(credit https://twitter.com/BestBitcoinEx/status/801398588446220288)

[iqlimasyadiqa]

bitcoin prices always move up and down quickly. it is difficult to predict the price of bitcoin. because bitcoin prices are influenced by many things can suddenly happen.

[TheGodFather]

the reason why i usually having a confusion on trading my bitcoins because the price is not stable i dont know if next week the bitcoin would be rise again justlike the other day . and i usually regretting it when the bitcoin gets higher and im already done trading it to someone.

[hacknoid]

the reason why i usually having a confusion on trading my bitcoins because the price is not stable i dont know if next week the bitcoin would be rise again justlike the other day . and i usually regretting it when the bitcoin gets higher and im already done trading it to someone.

Bitcoin has always had, and probably always will have, short term volatility.  That's why day trading is so hard; I can't do it, nor do I pretend that I could.  Long term, however, while there are no guarantees, the price has gone up over time.  I mean months-years.  We are close to historic all-time highs, and there is only a relatively short period during Bitcoin's history when it was higher, back during the spike in 2013-2014.

Bottom line - you should be happy with the price you get when you trade, because otherwise you'll almost always have seller's regret.  Or just buy and hold! 

[piloder]

i usually regretting it when the bitcoin gets higher and im already done trading it to someone.

Yes all traders who sell bitcoin at the current price range will regret sooner or later because actually this price range is buying point. Better to keep buying and holding whatever you can and just wait/watch your money growing in terms of fiat. 

[n0ne]

i usually regretting it when the bitcoin gets higher and im already done trading it to someone.

Yes all traders who sell bitcoin at the current price range will regret sooner or later because actually this price range is buying point. Better to keep buying and holding whatever you can and just wait/watch your money growing in terms of fiat.

Yeah, this seems to be the time to buy because the days are getting close to the year end. The price is expected to increase, but this rise will be a big one than the minor fluctuations happening often. Also price movement of bitcoin might sustain with the big increase of year end if big adoption takes place by the year start 2017.

[Raize]

I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear.  This is what you get:



From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle.  And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!

Would you be willing to do something similar to this, but using market capitalisation instead of price alone? Maybe even try a different starting point?

[hacknoid]

Would you be willing to do something similar to this, but using market capitalisation instead of price alone? Maybe even try a different starting point?

Sounds interesting... yeah, sure - I'll definitely do it up. Might not have time until after Christmas though, it's pretty busy this time of year.  But I love numbers and charts, so I'll see what I can do.  Remind me around the new year if I haven't gotten to it before then!

I think looking at that from the POV of the same price cycles as I did is interesting, but also looking at cycles divided by the halving events might be telling (especially for market cap). 

[Raize]

If it helps, in the lower right of this link you can actually download a CSV that has the total bitcoins from every day, so you could feasibly do the calculation to get market cap this way:
https://blockchain.info/charts/total-bitcoins?timespan=all&showDataPoints=true

[carlo_0000]

hello
i need some help

i need to cash out my bitcoins this weeks (actually was last Friday)
but i was expecting that price get up after couple of days so i waited  but now , i m lost

do you think it s gonna down for more days or get back up ?, now it s looks like it will go down for longer, or a m i wrong

finally i decide to panic sell  

[bitbunnny]

hello
i need some help

i need to cash out my bitcoins this weeks (actually was last Friday)
but i was expecting that price get up after couple of days so i waited  but now , i m lost

do you think it s gonna down for more days or get back up ?, now it s looks like it will go down for longer, or a m i wrong

finally i decide to panic sell  

Don't sell in panic, why? These fluctuations are completely normal and part of Bitcoins volatility. Differences are not that big. At the moment Bitcoin is around 744$ and probably will stay somwhere in between 720-750 in the next days.
And do not do anything emotional related to Bitcoin trading, keep the cool head.

[carlo_0000]

 dam and price is up now
problem was if i waited to much and price still more down , i had to mine 1-2 day more too have enough to cash out what i needed