Bitcoin price cycles

[Tanic]

I still hold that March/April (and maybe a bit into May) is going to be a key period as well. There's also reason to see this politically as it's becoming more likely that Brexit is going to be "official" with Article 50 around then, Netherlands vote on exit, France's elections. Then by August we'll have Germany's elections, too, so it's important to note that several of the polls aren't really in EU's favor right now and will likely be very much not in their favor considering all these elections by April.

I think this now is right time and good time to selling in bitcoin
if last month, you buy in level bitcoin price under 800 dollar, this now every one bitcoin can get profit over 200 dollar

I am making bitcoins only from the campaign. And I as many others I would like to cash out my money while the price is high and do not skip that chance again, how I did on this New Year. But the button "send to my BTC balance" (those coins that YoBit have paid to me for commenting) doesn't work. Ironically. I will go crazy if they fix it when the price will fall back again.

[1714021050]

1714021050

[1714021050]

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[dhampir-D]

I still hold that March/April (and maybe a bit into May) is going to be a key period as well. There's also reason to see this politically as it's becoming more likely that Brexit is going to be "official" with Article 50 around then, Netherlands vote on exit, France's elections. Then by August we'll have Germany's elections, too, so it's important to note that several of the polls aren't really in EU's favor right now and will likely be very much not in their favor considering all these elections by April.

I think this now is right time and good time to selling in bitcoin
if last month, you buy in level bitcoin price under 800 dollar, this now every one bitcoin can get profit over 200 dollar

Even if its a 20$ that's a good profit as the price increase happens without any work. So people who have been holding long for a increase in price can sell and cash it out to buy when the price falls back to a lower price than the current price.

This can be considered a good profit, considering the amount of money invested, but it would be wrong to say that this was obtained without any work, because the best decisions requires a great mental effort, and time, especially when it comes to the cryptocurrency market, where events that are hard to predict happen and significantly change the direction of price in the market.

[josegines]

Around these days we have top in cycle of 235 days.

[error08]

Thank you hacknoid, that is some very good analysis and the charts are great.
If I'm reading this right, we are in the middle of a strong peak which might actually fall to the $700 to $800 range in the next couple of months?

That would actually be perfect. I would be able to cash some out for fiat or trade for alt-coins and then re-buy when everyone sells their Bitcoin a few hundred dollars cheaper than they are right now.
Or am I reading this all wrong?

Well, first let me give the usual disclaimer - past results are not a guarantee of future performance!  As much as the price seems to follow cycles, don't bet on anything; anyone that is predicting the price is purely speculating, so we just have to wait and see.

Now, that being said, my look of things seems to indicate we are on the uptrend of a strong peak; following the 235-day cycle theory, there should be a local peak around February 16th, 2017.  Now, that could mean that we drop down before that then go up again (possibly not as high as we already are), or that we continue the trend up and up past the previous ATH and the Valentine's Day peak will be even higher.  Following the theory that we are in a supercycle, then that would be the likely outcome.  But I'll also point out a few other things:

Yeah, the theory maybe just another from many ways to create one but this is good thing obviously.
I know we can't predict what exactly will happen in the future by past events, as conditions in every country may different from last year. Every positive regulations about bitcoin and blockchain upgrade will affect on bitcoin, but nothing for sure which we just speculate and examine the best option to keep ours wealth remain safe.

[hacknoid]

I still hold that March/April (and maybe a bit into May) is going to be a key period as well. There's also reason to see this politically as it's becoming more likely that Brexit is going to be "official" with Article 50 around then, Netherlands vote on exit, France's elections. Then by August we'll have Germany's elections, too, so it's important to note that several of the polls aren't really in EU's favor right now and will likely be very much not in their favor considering all these elections by April.

Lots of things coming up, which is good.  Don't forget the potential for ETF March 11 (not a given, but big if it happens).

[hacknoid]

Around these days we have top in cycle of 235 days.

It's crunch time for the 235-day theory.  If it holds, right now we should be topping out (locally), and any time now we could expect a fallback.  Clearly we won't/haven't hit the huge spike at this time, but the theory predict a local maxima around this time.  If we continue more-or-less up over the next week or more, then I would say it kinda breaks this theory.  I'd give it up to a week though to see if noticeable maximum reached. 

[Raize]

Around these days we have top in cycle of 235 days.

It's crunch time for the 235-day theory.  If it holds, right now we should be topping out (locally), and any time now we could expect a fallback.  Clearly we won't/haven't hit the huge spike at this time, but the theory predict a local maxima around this time.  If we continue more-or-less up over the next week or more, then I would say it kinda breaks this theory.  I'd give it up to a week though to see if noticeable maximum reached. 

But a 940ish-day super-cycle could still be in play even if the 235-day theory doesn't pan out, right?

You mentioned that I had forgotten about the ETF in the idea of a late first quarter or early second quarter price increase and that was wrong for me to forget about it. Good catch.

I think the reason why speculation on the Internet is that the ETF will "fail" is because it's going to be precisely the opposite and some folks want to use that "surprise" aspect to their advantage (the underwriters). It seems really silly for the actual price of coin to be increasing at a time when the expected news is bad. Even "buy the rumor, sell the news" doesn't explain these latest increases unless it is someone who wants desperately to buy more than what is readily available on the markets. Maybe the ETF will just the be the start of the next major hype cycle or bubble. The bubble to put us to rest somewhere much higher than where we are at today.

[Fakhoury]

Around these days we have top in cycle of 235 days.

It's crunch time for the 235-day theory.  If it holds, right now we should be topping out (locally), and any time now we could expect a fallback.  Clearly we won't/haven't hit the huge spike at this time, but the theory predict a local maxima around this time.  If we continue more-or-less up over the next week or more, then I would say it kinda breaks this theory.  I'd give it up to a week though to see if noticeable maximum reached. 

But a 940ish-day super-cycle could still be in play even if the 235-day theory doesn't pan out, right?

You mentioned that I had forgotten about the ETF in the idea of a late first quarter or early second quarter price increase and that was wrong for me to forget about it. Good catch.

I think the reason why speculation on the Internet is that the ETF will "fail" is because it's going to be precisely the opposite and some folks want to use that "surprise" aspect to their advantage (the underwriters). It seems really silly for the actual price of coin to be increasing at a time when the expected news is bad. Even "buy the rumor, sell the news" doesn't explain these latest increases unless it is someone who wants desperately to buy more than what is readily available on the markets. Maybe the ETF will just the be the start of the next major hype cycle or bubble. The bubble to put us to rest somewhere much higher than where we are at today.

Hey Raize,

Hope you are doing well my friend.

Since you are online, could I please know your opinion about the COIN ETF ?

I say it will be approved for a lot of reasons.

[Moon_Man]

hacknoid, can you post updated chart? i guess its just sideways but i still want to see 

[josegines]

It seems that the 235 day cycle spread a little

[hacknoid]

Sorry for the absence... below is the latest updated graph:



Noting that on this graph the 235-day local maximum occurs around the second bar of each segment (Cycle 11, in this case), it's pretty close, but has drifted.  However, that was indeed the highest point achieved in the cycle as of that time; there was a period of horizontal movement, the the dip.  Now we're back on the upswing again (hopefully).

[AjithBtc]

Sorry for the absence... below is the latest updated graph:



Noting that on this graph the 235-day local maximum occurs around the second bar of each segment (Cycle 11, in this case), it's pretty close, but has drifted.  However, that was indeed the highest point achieved in the cycle as of that time; there was a period of horizontal movement, the the dip.  Now we're back on the upswing again (hopefully).

Well generated. We are now in the upswing as stated. Now once again we might get a horizontal move in the price increase rather than a dip, because from the start of the year the price of bitcoin is moving forward without any external influence like the Chinese bitcoin market in the past. So the real increase with respect to the user base is quite good for a positive growth.

[olyaru]

Sorry for the absence... below is the latest updated graph:



Noting that on this graph the 235-day local maximum occurs around the second bar of each segment (Cycle 11, in this case), it's pretty close, but has drifted.  However, that was indeed the highest point achieved in the cycle as of that time; there was a period of horizontal movement, the the dip.  Now we're back on the upswing again (hopefully).

Well generated. We are now in the upswing as stated. Now once again we might get a horizontal move in the price increase rather than a dip, because from the start of the year the price of bitcoin is moving forward without any external influence like the Chinese bitcoin market in the past. So the real increase with respect to the user base is quite good for a positive growth.

But it seems to me that after such growth there will be an adjustment. And soon we will see the price drop. But do not panic - this is the normal state of the cryptocurrency.

[rajasumi3]

Thank you for the price prediction and i hope that the price of bitcoins would reach 2000$ by the end of august,even if it does not then we can expect that the price of bitcoins will only reach upto 2000$ by the end of december.

[hacknoid]

It's been a while since I updated the exponential trend, so I took another look at it this week.  Here are the previous posts from September and November 2016, for reference:

So back in September I posted an updated trend; the repeating cycle pattern may to be breaking down (I'll have to look into it a bit more carefully to see), however, I also posted this:

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):

I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear.  This is what you get:



From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle.  And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!

And here is the updated graph:



It amazing to me that it's been two years now, and the exponential trend is actually getting closer to being a perfect fit! 

In September, the r^2 value was 0.874 for an exponential increase of 0.23% per day.
In November, the r^2 value was 0.898 for an exponential increase of 0.22% per day
Now, in April, the r^2 value is 0.944 for an exponential increase of 0.24% per day

Remember, r^2=1.0 is a perfect fit.  So over the past two years we are remarkably close to a constant price increase per day of 0.24% (on average).  The fluctuations are actually deviating less from that increasing rate.

Bullish! 

[hacknoid]

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

[LFC_Bitcoin]

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

Now we're talking
I hope your prophecies can become reality bro, good work

[AngelSky]

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

Now we're talking
I hope your prophecies can become reality bro, good work

I think this is a good speculation from hacknoid. Normally we see the price bump in the month of December especially when we near to Christmas. If the price will go to 2000$ or more in Next January. I could make some profit from the bitcoin I have hold in my desktop wallet. But 2021 speculation seems to more expectation than satoshi speculates

[york780]

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

Now we're talking
I hope your prophecies can become reality bro, good work

I confirm this prediction.
Its known.

[Grillo]

It's been a while since I updated the exponential trend, so I took another look at it this week.  Here are the previous posts from September and November 2016, for reference:

So back in September I posted an updated trend; the repeating cycle pattern may to be breaking down (I'll have to look into it a bit more carefully to see), however, I also posted this:

However, there is still hope for the outlook; check out the log graph and trendlines below; we have slowed down on growth, but definitely are still growing (and more closely sticking to the exponential growth curve rather than wildly fluctuating):

I thought it would be interesting to post an updated image on the trend line to see how it is going now compared to what the trend would say; to make it clearer to see where we are, I kept the same logarithmic trend line but changed the range of the vertical scale, and put it back to linear.  This is what you get:



From the looks of that, we are exactly in line with what the trend has been indicating for this cycle.  And notice the R-squared value is getting even better!

And here is the updated graph:



It amazing to me that it's been two years now, and the exponential trend is actually getting closer to being a perfect fit! 

In September, the r^2 value was 0.874 for an exponential increase of 0.23% per day.
In November, the r^2 value was 0.898 for an exponential increase of 0.22% per day
Now, in April, the r^2 value is 0.944 for an exponential increase of 0.24% per day

Remember, r^2=1.0 is a perfect fit.  So over the past two years we are remarkably close to a constant price increase per day of 0.24% (on average).  The fluctuations are actually deviating less from that increasing rate.

Bullish! 

Woow that looks really good