Bitcoin price cycles

[Raize]

UPDATE:

Just to get back to sanity check in all this redness, the long term trend was saying this is where we should  be today, 15 June 2017:


   Date       Target        80% Lower Bound
 15 Jun 2017  $1,285          $  1028


At current weighted price of  $2,337.11, we are at 181.86% of forecast value.

Hacknoid, I wanted to follow up with you about my $10k projection by the end of 2017. If we are, in fact, in a supercycle, do you think that's still reasonable given what we've already seen this year?

[1713566457]

1713566457

[Shiver]

At the start of the year I was guessing 10K by end of year, but by April I'd downgraded that to 8K.  I think we'll see 10K within a month or so of 2018 though.

[Hoganye]

At the start of the year I was guessing 10K by end of year, but by April I'd downgraded that to 8K.  I think we'll see 10K within a month or so of 2018 though.

I think with the current price of Bitcoin, the highest price of Bitcoin can be between $7,000 and $8,000 in the end of this year. However, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will stop at this highest price, I also thought it can continue to increases more in 2018.

[Trela]

Price cycle of bitcoin is the same most of the time, maybe the price increase and decrease time may vary. It never happens to create a continued growth or decline in the value, so in my thinking price moves happen in a cyclic process is the true fact.

You can see the bullish cycle from last year until today of Bitcoin, if you are trading follow the cycle of every year, you can see the price of Bitcoin has started this bullish trend since 2015. However, the Bitcoin price always has troubles and the correction of the price because the Bitcoin community do not have enough power to make its value increases more. But in this year, by the growth of the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin has succeeded to kept its value grow more till today

[carlo_0000]

i was expecting it wil go down around half november & december
but looks like it won't
but there could be a correction begin 2018 then when i look the chart  we are to high

[PORN_coin]

thanks for the excellent analysis
I will take note
what did you write?
seriously this is useful for the community

[megadeth]

bump

[gabmen]

At the start of the year I was guessing 10K by end of year, but by April I'd downgraded that to 8K.  I think we'll see 10K within a month or so of 2018 though.

I think with the current price of Bitcoin, the highest price of Bitcoin can be between $7,000 and $8,000 in the end of this year. However, I do not think the price of Bitcoin will stop at this highest price, I also thought it can continue to increases more in 2018.

Oh no. Historically, the fourth quarter of the year always gives us a good run. 7 to 8k would be the resitance for this bear market so i don't think we'll end there. A good run would likely get us above 10k

[pocketfullofpoke]

With the volatility of bitocin's market price, it's also unpredictable how it behaves in the coming weeks or months so i think nobody really can exactly tell how bitcoin's market price looks like in the future and whatever that price may be, hope that it will be profitable for all.

[PaulLines]

With the volatility of bitocin's market price, it's also unpredictable how it behaves in the coming weeks or months so i think nobody really can exactly tell how bitcoin's market price looks like in the future and whatever that price may be, hope that it will be profitable for all.

Everyone is giving prediction and analysis according to their own experience, but we cannot take any prediction as 100% correct. No one in advance about the bitcoin price that what is going to happen to it in future. We can only hope that bitcoin price will increase too much in near future.

[Moon_Man]

any update?

[Bakemat]

thanks for the excellent analysis
I will take note
what did you write?
seriously this is useful for the community

The price is based on supply and demand , so no matter how the market drops it will always increase due to the volatility of the market which makes the price of the tokens to always pump up when there is a hype in the market.

[hacknoid]

Just posting a quick update.  I admit I kinda "forgot" about BitcoinTalk in favour of Crypto Twitter these days, but thought I should at least update this - and yes, it's still relevant!

So, when we had the pullback in November 2018 the price was way above the "forecast" price according to the model I outlined in 2017.  I had hoped I was wrong and that price would keep above it, but lo and behold we swung around and pulled below it:


    Date     Forecast Price   Actual Price   % Actual of Forecast
 1 Nov 2018    $4,240.84       $6,316.09       148.93%
 1 Dec 2018    $4,553.19       $4,097.44        89.99%
15 Dec 2018    $4,706.72       $3,171.72        67.39%      <== Lowest price since 2017
 1 Jan 2018    $4,900.13       $3,710.86        75.73%
 7 Feb 2019    $5,348.99       $3,365.06        62.91%      <== Farthest below trendline
11 May 2019    $6,667.26       $6,901.48       103.51%      <== First point above trendline since December 2018
16 May 2019    $6,746.70       $8,052.61       119.36%


What does it all mean?  Maybe nothing, but the long term trendline has been a source of comfort to me, at least.  It says the pullback in November was not at all unexpected since we were still so far above the "expected" price.  It also says that since the over-correction, the trend has been "pulling" the price up.  Note back in 2015-2017 when we stuck closely to the average price increase per day, we bounced around +/- 20% of the trendline.  So I would not be surprised if we do the same thing again.  If so, I'll be happy...

(Note we are about 20% above, and I an seeing people calling for a pullback now, which would again be in line with bouncing within that range of the trend...)

Long term, the original numbers quoted below for future dates still holds.

I'll try to post a graphic later.

Cheers.

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

[hacknoid]

Updated graphic of how the trend has aged over time; the upper graph is the price (plotted on the logarithmic price scale on the left) with the forecast line in bold, and the bottom graph is the actual price graphed as a percentage of the trend predicted price, plotted on the logarithmic percentage scale on the right side.

[Raize]

This is kind of bumping an old post, but hacknoid, if you are still here, would you agree that December 2018 was the low to the start of a new super-cycle? Your latest comment seems to suggest such.

I think it probably was. I've started moving from trying to predict cycles to trying to time long term lows and highs using a "running average variant" of the Mayer Multiple and I have to say, while it has massive periods of inactivity, it backtests very well and seems to time well with periods where I've naturally both bought and sold. It's been nice to have something that does this, but by doing so, I've found that my buys and sells in the past of very low percentages actually served to hurt my long term gains. In some cases, the recommended sale or purchase based on trying to maximize profits recommends selling positions of fiat or BTC in the 27% or higher range (as a percentage of total holdings).

The lows in December triggered three such buys (using fiat presumably gained from two previous recommended sales in late 2017). I'm tempted to throw a decent chunk of both coin and fiat at this new system, but I'm still kind of worried about a "hyperbitcoinization" event as detailed here: https://nakamotoinstitute.org/mempool/hyperbitcoinization/

If such a scenario would happen, it would seem to me that I would be risking sales at an inopportune time, perhaps even as the global hegemony of the US dollar is coming to an end. It's because of this that I'm considering a basket of commodities and other currencies, but I'm even worried that that would be overshadowed by such a hyperbitcoinization event. I'm curious as to what you may think.

[carlo_0000]

if you wanna know the future price it s pretty simple to do

just put a trend line on the logarithm chart, it's pretty accurate , no reason it will break the trend

https://ibb.co/k10CqCB

[hacknoid]

I know this is a necro thread, but 3.5 years ago I made the predictions below... model is still holding.  I know the S2F model has more media these days, but it agrees almost exactly with what I was thinking when I wrote this thread.

... just saying.

For speculation purposes, IF we continue the same exponential trend, we are looking for the following price targets (note we are a bit above where the trendline says we should be right now):


 1 Jun 2017 : $1,243
 1 Jul 2017 : $1,335
 1 Aug 2017 : $1,436
 1 Sep 2017 : $1,546
 1 Oct 2017 : $1,660
 1 Nov 2017 : $1,786
 1 Dec 2017 : $1,918

 1 Jan 2018 : $2,064
23 Mar 2018 : $2,500
 8 Jun 2018 : $3,000
 8 Oct 2018 : $4,006

 1 Jan 2019 : $4,899

 1 Jan 2020 : $11,630

 1 Jan 2021 : $27,675


 

[Raize]

You're right about S2F being the popular model on crypto twitter right now. I think you had the right idea though, parabolic increases on an exponential scale. That's basically S2F anyway.

The big goal for me during this next rising event, hyperbitcoinization or not, may end up being correctly calling what the top or high will be.

Given the current geopolitical state, I don't foresee a future where the US avoids some sort of hyperinflationary rout. Everyone at the federal level is like Oprah right now giving out free cars: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pviYWzu0dzk

Oddly enough, even the people in that audience had to pay $7k in taxes to at least keep their cars. None of us Covid relief recipients have to pay anything. It's just free money. Joe Biden gave a speech today about a third relief bill with even more money. This shouldn't be happening.

Historically, currencies don't survive these kind of situations where money becomes so plentiful. There used to be a time where I would imagine this is all some sort of conspiracy to create a Fedcoin or USAcoin or something, but I don't know of anyone at the Fed seriously even proposing a solution to the inevitable problem they are letting Congress create right now.

This isn't going to end well. No one seems to be sounding any sort of alarms about it right now when it is most important to be loudly warning people of the folly taking place.