Difficulty = 567358

[urtur]

So: mining is now 30% harder than it used to be before.

[1714118879]

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[RedLine888]

at least it did not jump to +78.1% like the previous time!

[Lightspeed]

was about to post this, you beat me!

theres only one thing to do guys.... buy more GPUs lol

[organofcorti]

So: mining is now 30% harder than it used to be before.

Difficulty posts are like posting "FIRST!!" in a blog.

FOURTH!!!    

[mattpker]

I'm curious to see how this effects the market.

[RedLine888]

))

Waiting for HD 7990 with 6400 ALUs!

[mewantsbitcoins]

This was easy because price stagnated for a while. I bet next jump will be to >10^6

[Cluster2k]

Before the last reset we saw rapid growth in hashing rate, and then a significant drop off after the reset.  Once again the hashing rate grew significantly before today's reset to a higher level.  Is this the effect of casual miners losing interest when the difficulty resets?  

Time to throw another 6950 into the mix.  It's a decent room heater as a bonus (winter here).

[urtur]

I bet next jump will be to >10^6

I bet 800 - 850k.

[RedLine888]

According to http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate the next difficilty would be MONSTROUS 2269081.63275582!!!

I hope there is a mistake somewhere...

[airdata]

I hope you're wrong about that.

That would be 400% ? 

Hypothetically, if an increase like that occurred, how long would it take to go back down assuming drastically slowed production of blocks ?

[Lightspeed]

According to http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate the next difficilty would be MONSTROUS 2269081.63275582!!!

I hope there is a mistake somewhere...

how does that work? what I see is 771795.76943028

[mewantsbitcoins]

According to http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate the next difficilty would be MONSTROUS 2269081.63275582!!!

I hope there is a mistake somewhere...

This happens all the time after difficulty jumps. It is due to the way it's calculated. Give it 12-24 hours to readjust - then you'll see real estimation. Also, if you noticed total hashing power is displayed as >7Th/s which is nonsense. We "only" have about 4.5

[RedLine888]

Well, that is not my assumption! These are rough facts taken from http://blockexplorer.com.

Just noticed that before difficulty increase the network total spped was ~ 5.7 Thash/s and now it is ~ 7.5 Thash/s!!!

What are those machines that do such a huge influx to the network? Or is it again a calculation mistake?

[Rodyland]

I hope you're wrong about that.

That would be 400% ?  

Hypothetically, if an increase like that occurred, how long would it take to go back down assuming drastically slowed production of blocks ?

It's my understanding that 400% is the maximum increase.

And as for how long it would take to go back down - it wouldn't, unless people stopped mining.  If difficulty and hashing power were in balance then the difficulty wouldn't change.  And if the next jump in difficulty were 400% then that would suggest that there was even more extra hashing power in the network (because the chances that the amount of hashing power in the network warranted exactly the maximum increase in difficulty is pretty small).

EDIT: current estimate of next difficulty is 771795, "only" a 36% increase

[RedLine888]

According to http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate the next difficilty would be MONSTROUS 2269081.63275582!!!

I hope there is a mistake somewhere...

how does that work? what I see is 771795.76943028

Uhhhh! Indeed it is O_o
I sware it showed that number!

[RedLine888]

According to http://blockexplorer.com/q/estimate the next difficilty would be MONSTROUS 2269081.63275582!!!

I hope there is a mistake somewhere...

This happens all the time after difficulty jumps. It is due to the way it's calculated. Give it 12-24 hours to readjust - then you'll see real estimation. Also, if you noticed total hashing power is displayed as >7Th/s which is nonsense. We "only" have about 4.5

Calmed me down a little))

[gentakin]

It's due to the way the estimate is calculated.

The script basically looks at the number of blocks found in the last x hours (24? 12? don't know), and assumes they all had a difficulty of the *CURRENT* difficulty, although the current difficulty is now ~30% higher than yesterday. So the script "thinks" those blocks from yesterday were just as difficult to find as today. Of course, they were actually easier to find, so the script overestimates the current network hashrate. Because it thinks the hashrate is higher, it will also estimate a much higher difficulty.

[Lightspeed]

1044054.51192240 now....

but if the price keeps going up, earning less BTC is OK...

[Sukrim]

They could just take the time between last block + this block and calculate which hashrate you'd need to solve it theoretically in exactly this amount of time.

Very lucky short rounds would cause huge spike though, so these numbers then would need to be averaged out again, but it would handle difficulty changes very well + fast.

Could be even done on historic blockexplorer date quite easily. Anyone up for an afternoon challenge?

[Littleshop]

I bet next jump will be to >10^6

I bet 800 - 850k.

I say 700k   Mining is now constrained by the supply of ati cards. 

[urtur]

I'm curious to see how this effects the market.

As for now 1BTC=$19.2 on MtGox 

[Sukrim]

http://mtgoxlive.bco.in/orders <-- difficulty increase, and BAM! 1.2 USD more...

[Meatball]

Well, that is not my assumption! These are rough facts taken from http://blockexplorer.com.

Just noticed that before difficulty increase the network total spped was ~ 5.7 Thash/s and now it is ~ 7.5 Thash/s!!!

What are those machines that do such a huge influx to the network? Or is it again a calculation mistake?

Yeah, I was wondering that too, yesterday the pool was hovering around 4-4.5 TH/sec and this morning it's up to almost 7.6 TH/sec.  On the plus side, all those people freaking out about Deepbit closing in on 50% of the network power at 2 TH/sec can stop worrying...

[finnthecelt]

http://mtgoxlive.bco.in/orders <-- difficulty increase, and BAM! 1.2 USD more...

I wonder if anyone has correlated the price increases yet with the difficulty factor? Surely this will relate in some way....

[mlouca]

I dont mean to sound like a noob, but can someone break down the concept between how much ghash power you need per difficulty level. How do the two bump heads? what is the concept behind the two given we just had an increase in difficulty that means that it is 30% harder to find a block mining at the current speed that you were but how do you justify that? just curious.

[gentakin]

It's simple: The network was designed to produce a new block every 10 minutes.

If miners add a lot of GPUs, then the hashrate goes up and a block is found every 6 minutes instead of every 10 minutes, and this is not wanted. So after 2016 blocks have been found, the network looks back to see if it took the miners 20160 minutes (exactly 14 days) to find these 2016 blocks. If they were too fast, difficulty goes up. If they needed more than 14 days, difficulty goes down.

At least that's how I understand it.

[inh]

Network power is always off after a diff change due to how it is calculated...

Difficulty change + regular Monday suck  is really starting to be a drag :p

[Lightspeed]

It's simple: The network was designed to produce a new block every 10 minutes.

If miners add a lot of GPUs, then the hashrate goes up and a block is found every 6 minutes instead of every 10 minutes, and this is not wanted. So after 2016 blocks have been found, the network looks back to see if it took the miners 20160 minutes (exactly 14 days) to find these 2016 blocks. If they were too fast, difficulty goes up. If they needed more than 14 days, difficulty goes down.

At least that's how I understand it.

but what if bitcoin reaches critical mass and the number of transactions hits 100,000s every block, how big do the blocks get? I've wondered about this aspect of the scalability

[gentakin]

but what if bitcoin reaches critical mass and the number of transactions hits 100,000s every block, how big do the blocks get? I've wondered about this aspect of the scalability

Pretty big. With 100k transactions in a block, it might be 40mb in current block format.

[Horkabork]

I had a lot of difficulty waking up this morning. Do you think it's related to the difficulty change? If so, I'm pretty sure I have some sort of difficulty ESP, especially while I'm sleeping. I'm trying to figure out how to profit from this superpower, but so far all that I've come up with is "Sell difficulty predictions to pools for either a bitcoin or possibly a taco." At the time I came up with that idea, I was hungry for a taco.

Also there was a squirrel in my dream, and I think this is because, the other day, I said that Mt. Gox should have some sort of cute mascot animal, like a squirrel, only it would be bashing its little head against a keyboard. When I pictured the squirrel in my brain it made me laugh, because squirrels are really bad typists. Also it would have lost several of its nuts for being bearish in an obviously bull market.

As you all know, being bearish is just unnatural for a squirrel. Anyway, my ESP is telling me that another difficulty change will happen in less than 2 weeks. I know, it's hard to predict these things, but I've been right about my "less than 2 weeks" guesses for several difficulty changes now.

[Lightspeed]

but what if bitcoin reaches critical mass and the number of transactions hits 100,000s every block, how big do the blocks get? I've wondered about this aspect of the scalability

Pretty big. With 100k transactions in a block, it might be 40mb in current block format.

ultimately we are looking at an internet speed race too yes? lol

[LegitBit]

Price should correlate with difficulty, eventually it will burst, people will drop out and the difficulty will drop back down.

WHen? No clue. It's a fluctuating market, just like the 'real world' market. There will be up's and downs, it just depends on if your heart can take the blows.

[Fuzzy]

It looks like the networks computational power DOUBLED in 24! hours. I hear it is bc Asia has caught wind of BTC.

[Meatball]

God help us all if all those Chinese WoW gold farmers start BTC mining

[Sukrim]

It looks like the networks computational power DOUBLED in 24! hours. I hear it is bc Asia has caught wind of BTC.

Because (like with every difficulty increase) the graphs average over a few blocks/hours/days and thus overshoot at the beginning.

This could be fixed by calculating block-to-block hashrate and after that smoothing things out instead of calculating 100 blocks-to-100 blocks hashrates while assuming the same difficulty for them, but that would be more computationally intense probably.

[HudsonStan]

in 10 days 1 BTC will be 25$  

But then in 20 days 1 BTC will be 0.25$
BTC is overheating now and we don't need to break 20$.

[finnthecelt]

God help us all if all those Chinese WoW gold farmers start BTC mining

I wouldn't put it past the PBC......

[bluefire]

There is a problem with thinking that people will drop out of mining - once the barrier to entry has been passed (purchasing a rig) the only direct cost a miner faces is the cost of electricity and I suppose there needs to be a marginal reward for effort.  If difficulty goes through the roof it will still make sense to continue mining to make the most of a sunk cost (the rig).  I suspect the network computational power will be sticky down - admittedly it may put a damper on growth in the power, but I doubt people will drop out.  Everyone will just have to make he most of the equipment they have bought.

The one saving grace is that in the long run the mechanics are designed to allow for "fair" compensation for the risk of mining - but we talking an ROI of around 10 - 15% p.a. not what people expect at the moment.

[Jack of Diamonds]

in 10 days 1 BTC will be 25$  

But then in 20 days 1 BTC will be 0.25$
BTC is overheating now and we don't need to break 20$.

In 20 days difficulty will be nearing a million.

There is no such thing as "needing" to break a barrier or drop down in price. Supply and demand of bitcoins will dictate a fair price.

The fair price at the moment is around $18 to $19.

[HudsonStan]

In 20 days difficulty will be nearing a million.

There is no such thing as "needing" to break a barrier or drop down in price. Supply and demand of bitcoins will dictate a fair price.

The fair price at the moment is around $18 to $19.

Yes, it is possible.
But if price goes too high... supply can bump up followed by panic sellout. Final price can be $12 or even $0.1. I'm expecting some correction during this or next diff. level.
Fair price at this moment is about $10. $18 is overvalued price by expected increase of difficulty and net hash rate.

[bcpokey]

In 20 days difficulty will be nearing a million.

There is no such thing as "needing" to break a barrier or drop down in price. Supply and demand of bitcoins will dictate a fair price.

The fair price at the moment is around $18 to $19.

Yes, it is possible.
But if price goes too high... supply can bump up followed by panic sellout. Final price can be $12 or even $0.1. I'm expecting some correction during this or next diff. level.
Fair price at this moment is about $10. $18 is overvalued price by expected increase of difficulty and net hash rate.

Based on... what exactly?

[Chakravanti]

And here I thought the inflation was due to real demand generated by articles like this:
http://current.com/news/93262592_the-underground-website-where-you-can-buy-any-drug-imaginable.htm

You probably don't even need to click the link if you're already here.

Also this: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12682.20

Noting that 58xx GPUs are out of stock everywhere.

[bcpokey]

And here I thought the inflation was due to real demand generated by articles like this:
http://current.com/news/93262592_the-underground-website-where-you-can-buy-any-drug-imaginable.htm

You probably don't even need to click the link if you're already here.

Also this: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12682.20

Noting that 58xx GPUs are out of stock everywhere.

There is a demand for bitcoins, for both legal and illegal purposes. The legal purposes are useful, the illegal ones... we'll see.

5850s being out of stock have nothing to do with anything really.

[HudsonStan]

Based on... what exactly?

Price/difficulty ratio for example. I think P/d at level 3+ is unsustainable.
http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=7427.0