I'm a little confused on a couple parts of the site. Your first post says that everything'll be explained by the site, but I don't see a help page there. Maybe I'm just missing it. And maybe part of it is I'm just unfamiliar with traditional sports betting as well.
When do bets close? For instance, I just placed a bet on the MtGox price by the end of the year. Should I have waited closer to the end of the year before doing that? Is the potential payoff the same whether I bet now or at 11:58 pm on 12/31? I suddenly feel like I made a terrible mistake. Can I un-place my bet and wait until the time gets closer?
Is the current "line" the number my bet gets multiplied by if the thing I bet on "wins"? And this is set purely by "the market" of what bets have been placed thus far, and not by some external force guessing? That is, if the fee is 0.0%, then all the money bet gets split proportionally amongst the "winners" according to how much they each bet?
The "MtGox USD Price" section heading says "(see rules)". Where are the rules?
Thanks.
Thank you for visiting the site. I need to create the help page - this is my fault.
Wagering closes at the DATE/TIME indicated on the bet. All wagers are pari-mutual, meaning you wager with other participants on the site. If you are familiar with horse race betting, it is the same. The timing of your bet in this case is similar to placing a bet at a horse racing track with 30 minutes until close - there are few wagers at the moment. Once the time becomes closer, more wagers are attracted. Everyone will get the same line upon close. I'm not sure of your exact wager, but if you bet on mtgox over 0.30 for 10 coins, you can freely bet up to 10 coins on the under 0.30 right now in margin (most you can lose is only 10 coins total). Once the wager closes on 12/31, you'll only need to maintain a worst-case scenario and can freely withdraw the balance of the coins.
We have a market maker who will price out each contract and put 1000+ coins or so on each side when the wager is close to going off.
You understand how the line works. If there are 100 coins on wager A and 200 coins on wager B, then those 300 coins will be split proportionately among the winning bets.
Rules for MtGox USD Price for Jan 2011 close eastern time: A settlement will be given for price action for trades that take place on january 31st, 2011. All trades that day (eastern time) will be price weighted. So, 1000 coins trade at 0.25 and 100 coins trade at 0.26, the settlement would be (1000*.25 + 100*.26)/1100 = 0.250909.
