[ROLLIN.IO] Rollin 2016 New Year // Contests & Giveaways!! / CLOSED.

[Wilhelm the mod]

user: Wilhelm

code: R8 Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC

My prediction 1.915.000.000

[1713311591]

1713311591

[1713311591]

1713311591

[1713311591]

1713311591

[somuchee]

Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8

Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC. Closest 3 wins.
Minimum Rollin level 3 to enter. Prediction closes on 20th December 2015, 12:00 UTC
Special : Level 6 players get to make 2 predictions and level 9 - 3 predictions.
Prizes : 200 mBTC.                   #1  100 mBTC;        #2 60 mBTC;        #3 40 mBTC.        And a 5 mBTC for the craziest prediction.

so which means Rollin users
Level 6~8        user    get 2 predictions ?
Level 9~above  user    get 3 predictions ?

am i right ?

[skierchewing]

New contests.
            
R9   Bet ID contest.   Running   Rrequirements:
1. Have ""1337"" in the last 2-5 places of the Bet ID
2. The last digit should match your bet amount (rounded down; 0 for >10 mBTC). There will be 1 winner for each digit, the prize is 3 times the wagered amount (rounded down, max. 30 mBTC).
10 prizes, being 3 times the wagered amount that hits the right bet number (max.30, rounded down).      Prizes: 3 to 30 mBTC * 10 winners = 165 to 183 mBTC


Tip : There may be more than that meets the eye.

Hello ndnhc... hmm obvious thas decision is yours, but i would like to alert you about this contest R9... it's a little strange...

first point... - It'll take years

let's check one single person playing...
randomnumber1337x, so you have 1 chance every 100.000 bets...

we have two analysis...
1 - 4500 bets in 1 min...
2 - all bets from other users are less than 1 mbtc

so... for every 1 chance, you need to wait 100000/4500 = 22,22 min
using autoroll you get in average 1 bet each 120 total rolls... so you have 1/120 chance to get the number you want... so you need in average 22,22*120 = 2666,4 min/60 = 44,4h

it mean... if 1 guy playing alone trying to get it, he will take 2 days to hit ONE of this 10..., and the time needed to finish it (all 10) is 2*10 = 20days / 44,4*10 = 444h (1 people playing) if the guy play 24h without stop...

let's consider a guy only play 3 hour per day actively... so it take 44/3 = 15 days / 444/3 = 148 days lol...

if you intention is getting this event over in arround 4 days... you'll need 37 people trying it at least 3h per day

second point... - No worth the work..

1 - Need attention and time...
2 - let's check 10 mbtc wager to 30 mbtc win rate

Best possibility
as you playing in autoroll, basicaly you'll get 1/120 to hit it... so 120 bets with 1% house edge... so you lose 12 mbtc, your profit is 18 mbtc
the question is.. spend 15 days to earn 18 mbtc at best possibility... lol

Just a alert, hope you can understand!

[LoyceV]

first point... - It'll take years

let's check one single person playing...
randomnumber1337x, so you have 1 chance every 100.000 bets...

we have two analysis...
1 - 4500 bets in 1 min...
2 - all bets from other users are less than 1 mbtc

so... for every 1 chance, you need to wait 100000/4500 = 22,22 min
using autoroll you get in average 1 bet each 120 total rolls... so you have 1/120 chance to get the number you want... so you need in average 22,22*120 = 2666,4 min/60 = 44,4h

it mean... if 1 guy playing alone trying to get it, he will take 2 days to hit ONE of this 10..., and the time needed to finish it (all 10) is 2*10 = 20days / 44,4*10 = 444h (1 people playing) if the guy play 24h without stop...

I made up this contest, so I'd like to respond to this.
First: I like your analysis! But it's a bit off.... Higher bets are faster than 1 satoshi bets. But obviously this contest is not designed to win by bot. It's designed to manually click at exactly the right time. I think I can hit it within 50 clicks, I may give it a shot later.
You actually have 10 chances every 100,000 bets, it's just at varying wagered amounts, but they're so close together you can at best hit one of them.

1 - Need attention and time...

This is indeed intentional.

as you playing in autoroll, basicaly you'll get 1/120 to hit it... so 120 bets with 1% house edge... so you lose 12 mbtc, your profit is 18 mbtc
the question is.. spend 15 days to earn 18 mbtc at best possibility... lol

My autorolls yesterday:

That is 83, 60 and 82 in between. 75 on average. A bit better chance than 1/120.

Just a alert, hope you can understand!

Some are easy, some are harder. This one is the latter

[skierchewing]

I made up this contest, so I'd like to respond to this.
First: I like your analysis! But it's a bit off.... Higher bets are faster than 1 satoshi bets. But obviously this contest is not designed to win by bot. It's designed to manually click at exactly the right time. I think I can hit it within 50 clicks, I may give it a shot later.

lol, the 120 bets are using much more than 1mbtc (i was playing and tested, on really tt depends on how many ppl are playing/maybe distance ping delay... but even if you can have a lower by the first option, the total roll per min will be lower than 4500 and you'll have to wait more to reach the next 100,000... it's all relative)

That situation i gave, is the best ever... the problem in using auto roll, is that if you bet for exemple 3 rolls for every try to hit it... you'll wager more then you going to profit with the contest... it'll become a negative EV... ex: random113251 random113371 random113491, your target is random113370... in this case you have more 2 trash bet random113251 and random113391

your wager will be 36mbtc for 120 bets (including the 2 trash) and you'll win 30mbtc = -6mbtc profit

You actually have 10 chances every 100,000 bets, it's just at varying wagered amounts, but they're so close together you can at best hit one of them.

Yes and no, you have 10 chance, but you'll need to choose only 1 bet, for 1 bet number per time... it's a 1-1, not 1-10... the rules say it... you need to hit right the bet wager with the bet id.

1 - Need attention and time...
This is indeed intentional.

not cool to check it all the time and manual bet it... believe, it's boring... i tried for some hours, on really i already gave up from this.

My autorolls yesterday:

That is 83, 60 and 82 in between. 75 on average. A bit better chance than 1/120.

As i said before, depends, number of people playing etc..., / maybe distance lag delay... but not because 1mbtc because i play autoroll more than this value

Some are easy, some are harder. This one is the latter

The problem isn't be harder, the problem it'll never be completed... believe me

[skierchewing]

The point is..., these contests are cool because they give +EV and funny, but that don't mean you going to profit... in my case i'm on -15mbtc atm, (counting with all contest prizes + chat games(no risk) etc)
other users are in negative profit too..., but let's say... in average the higher part will be on positive profit

also if you analyze it... we have ppl playing at this

Shadew-MCoins-somuchee-Loyce-LiQuid-madcoin-klutzbelgian-llllllll-IAmTriggerX-skierchewing-sweetswoebegone-fumblingperch-kshyzer-louise, 14 active players, and big part are playing with high wagerer... no one will kill himself... like spend alot of days to wager 1.6667mbtc to win 5mbtc (3,3 mbtc profit - best rate for 1mbtc play), and to have this profit, the only possible is if you use manual bet, if you use auto-roll your wager is diferent , profit can be smaller to negative status (i'm telling about math analyze... not include lucky and rare situations)

even if this 14 players play together, it'll take arround 10 days, playing 3hour per day (non-stop), without loosing one chance to bet on 1337, making manual bet/ need to check all time when the bet coming close... to profit in some cases... 3 mbtc lol, 4 mbtc... to 20 mbtc..

[no-life]

user:93427489756583
code:XMAS

[madc0in]

user: madcoin
code: R8 Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC
My prediction : - 1.913.371.337
                     - 2.097.897.000

[LiQuidx]

Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8

My prediction: 1.867.780.540

Good luck all

[newinbtc]

Bet ID contest. Code : R9


https://rollin.io/dice/history/1650013775

just HIT 1377 IN last 5 Digit

username - Newinbtc

[skierchewing]

Bet ID contest. Code : R9


https://rollin.io/dice/history/1650013775

just HIT 1377 IN last 5 Digit

username - Newinbtc

lol it's 1337... and u must hit 13371 with this bet wager

[rivoke]

 

[ndnh]

Predict the rolls contest. Code : R8

Predict the total number of rolls as at January 1, 2016, 00:00 UTC. Closest 3 wins.
Minimum Rollin level 3 to enter. Prediction closes on 20th December 2015, 12:00 UTC
Special : Level 6 players get to make 2 predictions and level 9 - 3 predictions.
Prizes : 200 mBTC.                   #1  100 mBTC;        #2 60 mBTC;        #3 40 mBTC.        And a 5 mBTC for the craziest prediction.

so which means Rollin users
Level 6~8        user    get 2 predictions ?
Level 9~above  user    get 3 predictions ?

am i right ?

Yes, you are right. Didn't want to make it too long, that is why I shortened it up.

If you are level 3, 4 or 5, you get 1 prediction. If you are level 6, 7, 8 you get 2, and for 9 and up, 3. You can actually use some tactics to play safe. Only one prize per account. Bets should be made before it closes on 20th December.

Good luck. 

[ndnh]

first point... - It'll take years

Considering that any contest that we could think of is being completed in a few hours, that is very desirable.

second point... - No worth the work..

Gambling is always -EV. Still for many it is not exactly a waste of time. It is many times more about having fun and enjoying it.
(Well, I wouldn't be here otherwise if managing contests were boring stuff )

Just a alert, hope you can understand!

We can always change contests, add new ways to win it, remove conditions.
Let us see how things go with this.

Thanks for the feedback. Sorry for keeping it short, have to log out now.
have a nice day
ndnhc

[FARxYodakota77]

Predict the rolling number: User:SoWhat  1,950,000,000

[ndnh]

Update: Spreadsheet page for details about wins have been split into two for easy viewing.
Trivia & Games is the new page, and it will also have details about the predictions made (R8).

Please note to add your username to the post. And adding the contest number would reduce the chances of the entry being accidentally skipped since it would show on using the search function on top right of bitcointalk forum.

Predict the rolling number: User:SoWhat  Going with 72 and 37 sincei am lvl 6

Hi,

The contest is on total number of bets as at that date.

Example : Entries till now:
Loyce   1.854.250.908
IAmTriggerX   1.889.569.800
Wilhelm   1.915.000.000
madcoin   1.913.371.337
madcoin   2.097.897.000
LiQuid   1.867.780.540

[ndnh]

On-thread Trivia!




aaand the question for today is:

Q. Bob, a player at Rollin has wagered 5313.4931 mBTC. He bets 50 mBTC at Lower than 1 and wins. What is his payout?

Post your answer with your Rollin account for 7 mBTC. Rollin account should be at least level 2 OR the bitcointalk account full member and above. First to answer correctly, to the point wins the prize.

Remember, no edits.

[s1ng]

Profit 4900 mB

kutu_kupret

[ndnh]

Nope. Bounty raised to 10 mBTC.

[retes12345]

On-thread Trivia!




aaand the question for today is:

Q. Bob, a player at Rollin has wagered 5313.4931 mBTC. He bets 50 mBTC at Lower than 1 and wins. What is his payout?

Post your answer with your Rollin account for 7 mBTC. Rollin account should be at least level 2 OR the bitcointalk account full member and above. First to answer correctly, to the point wins the prize.

Remember, no edits.

100mb?
username:louise