[Poll] Will we see ASICs delivered by any manufacturer in December 2012?

[CoinHoarder]

In light of the new announcements of delays, I'm interested to see everyone's opinion in poll form.

I even included an "ASICs are a scam option" for the tin foil hat crew!  

Do you trust ASIC manufacturers in regards to shipping dates anymore due to the constant delays, or has your trust never wavered?

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[CoinHoarder]

I guess poll threads don't incite debate. I will try to get it started!  

My opinion on the matter is that I will not ever trust any news that comes out of the BFL or bASIC camp from this day forward, until there is some sort of empirical evidence.

The only manufacturer that has an inkling of my trust at this point would be Avalon, they are the only ones that have not given me a reason to distrust them.

If Avalon is still shipping in January, it could beat both BFL and bASIC.

[wndrbr3d]

I think all the ASIC manufacturers jumped the gun in their announcement in an effort to generate buzz and capture market share through pre-orders that lock up the money from going to a competitor. Honestly, it seems like none of them should have even announced anything until December since they all seem to be in the prototype (at best) stage.

The problem with that strategy is that although historically the folks behind the ASICS (BFL, Avalon, etc.) have a track record of actually delivering a product (specs or real world performance aside), it breeds distrust since they have to continually play this game of "IT MIGHT DROP EARLIER THAN X" countered with "BECAUSE OF X, IT WONT HAPPEN UNTIL RELEASE DATE"

PERSONALLY, I don't think we'll see units shipped until late Jan/early Feb at the earliest. It seems that all the manufacturers are still prototyping live hardware beyond the emulated prototypes. So that's my vote

[Clearfly]

None of the ASIC manufacturers has a working prototype yet. When any of them have some, they will need to undergo rigourous stress testing before any serious manufacturing can begin.

My bet is Avalon's 110nm will ship first, but will also be the first to be unprofitable at it's higher Wattage consumption. (Feburary/March).

BFL i think will be next, their 65nm will be the best bet if they ever actually deliver and don't go bankrupt first. Flawed chips, wont even prototype until January IMO. (March/April).

bASIC 90nm structure should avoid the pitfalls of a 65nm process. But now redesigning PCB, offering higher GH/s to appease punters. Has been awfully quiet recently other than saying 'sorry not been around lately mega busy'. Gut feeling says he may have bitten off more than he can chew. (March/April) if he doesn't run off or refund everyone by then.

When i see real working ASIC's that dont' burn up and crash within weeks, then i'll invest.

Just my 2 cents.

[libertybuck]

but will also be the first to be unprofitable at it's higher Wattage consumption. (Feburary/March).

Just as you said "None of the ASIC manufacturers has a working prototype yet", if someone promise his asic miner could got better hash with lower wattage consumption,  you need not believe it at all.

[Mapuo]

I vote for January.
But still hope for my SC, for christmas gift.

[Blackasaurus]

"... in early 2013 they will start shipping to over a thousand customers who placed advance orders."
source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/508061/custom-chips-could-be-the-shovels-in-a-bitcoin-gold-rush/

[Mapuo]

"... in early 2013 they will start shipping to over a thousand customers who placed advance orders."
source: http://www.technologyreview.com/news/508061/custom-chips-could-be-the-shovels-in-a-bitcoin-gold-rush/

The information in that "technology review", is only from this forum(aka speculation).

[2GOOD]

I vote for January.
But still hope for my SC, for christmas gift.

We all do, I kinda have a hunch for this. 11th of December is very close, hope the news for BFL are good.

[smoothie]

This poll shows just how many suckers still exist in this community.

[ElectricMucus]

This poll shows just how many suckers still exist in this community.

Actually we plateaued it never went down.