Assuming we have another 1929 stock market crash (looks inevitable at some point in time), what do you reckon the BTC price will be the day it occurs/7 days later. Just a wild guess, but I'm guessing if there wasn't a Comex run, gold would be up 2x to 4x within the week. I think the implosion would cause big liquidity problems (deflationary aspect) that would prevent gold from just going completely into orbit, but it would still go up a lot, just not as much as you'd think.
For BTC, miners and traders selling would probably vanish from the market, and the market cap is low, so things would be wide open for whoever wants to pump it. Whatever gold does, I think BTC would get higher returns. People can dump a lot of money into Bitcoin now without much friction, and you wouldn't have the problem of trying to source gold and ending up with "paper gold". So Bitcoin might be a huge target for people trying to conserve wealth.
I think there are many moving parts involved with this and settling into believing a simplified false paradigm could prove quite costly here. The First stop, for Capital fleeing crashing equities, is Fiat. So the value of Fiat V everything else goes up. However, depending on the policy of the central bank controlling a particular currency, will determine which currency capital flows into. With the Fed raising rates every so slightly, whilst the rest of the developed world continues to keep the printing presses cranked up at full steam, the USD is a likely bet for capital fleeing equities...So can the USD Index really keep trending parabolically higher? And if investors are going to flee to USD, then may as well go to US treasury bonds and get paid interest on investment, especially desirable in a deflationary environment.
The whole paradigm of capital fleeing equities and into Gold, hasn't really existed since the times when currencies were backed by Gold. For Gold to become King once again, we would have to reach a point where the market loses faith in US Bonds and Treasuries, and for that to happen, we would have to see a widespread dumping of US Bonds onto the Market, forcing ther Fed to either allow the US bond market to crash (that would be good for Gold), or crank up the printing presses and start buying up all the US treasuries, but thus causing hyperinflation of USD currency supply in the process. This would be terrible for USD and all currencies globally which are essentially backed by USD, but fantastic for Gold and all other commodities (and terrible for the majority of humanity)
These days however, if we have a plain old recession or indeed actual deflation, Gold, along with all other commodities, are likely to go down in value. For Gold, Oil, Wheat, etc to increase in value, markets need to be booming, credit is expanding, and we have inflation. I think more likely than not, we could roughly slot Bitcoin into the commodity or 'hard asset' bracket. It isn't a business that earns profits through economic activity, it isn't a currency which is backed by the credit worthiness of a government or the monetary policy of it's central bank, Bitcoin is a thing that has a specific purpose; namely, the fast cheap transfer of wealth around the globe.
Bitcoin however, has it's own story. It is still a very small market, and a market which seems to be controlled by a cabal operating out of China. They seem to be running Bitcoin as both a Capital Flight vehicle for circumnavigating Chinese Capital Controls, and also as a hedge against CNY devaluation. When CNY devalues, Bitcoin is ramped. However, name of game isn't really CNY-BTC, it is CNY-USD. Thus when the Chinese ramp Bitcoin, it only gets up as high as sucker retail investors can take it (after the Chinese have ramped it), before BTC bought with CNY, are converted with both fists into USD, and the market comes crashing back down to where the Cabal are wanting to become net buyers once again. Wash, rinse, repeat.
With all that said. Under the circumstances of a real economic panic, and a flight from national currencies (especially the CNY), into the USD, Bitcoin could buck the trend of all other commodities, and have it's own bubble. Even though the purpose of the bubble will be Capital Flight into USD, the bull run itself, will attract investors to Bitcoin which would serve to power the bubble higher still. However, all the time, Bitcoin is infested by dominant Market Makers who can and will pull out the rug from Bitcoin's feet, and cash in big fkn style at any moment. Also, if Bitcoin were to grow to become a major route for Capital leaving China, the Chinese government could ban it overnight. Make dealing with it, or mining it an imprisonable offence, and Bitcoin would be done overnight, leaving a vacuum for a more up to date Crypto to move into.
Bitcoin is a ultra high risk investment. Bitcoin is not Gold. Bitcoin is not a 'safe haven' asset, and it never will be. Anyone viewing it as anything other than a Gravy Train, Smash n Grab sort of investment vehicle, needs to lay off the Kool Aid. i.e. the majority on forums such as this.
