(Almost) Foolproof plan: Sell above 400$, rebuy on holidays

[helloeverybody]

Doesn't the price rise though on holidays? Because right now it's approaching Christmas and the price has shot up quite a bit.

Price may drop due to a lower volume during those days. Also, people may need some extra cash for their holiday expenses, such as gifts, having people over or going on holidays.

So I don't think the price going up is related to Christmas, but because we are finally done going down.

Here's hoping.  I was wanting to buy some btc but price has been holding stay and rising for the last couple of months.  I don't know if it could drop down to old amounts now.  Would be good so I could buy some but maybe we are taking off now 

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[Amph]

there are no real correlation with festivity and price decrease and increase, for instance, in the black friday day the price went up

so why in christmas it should go down, i think it the opposite, we must likely be near 500 at that point

[bitlancr]

The safest way of playing it is just to hold for now and not sell when the price increases a tiny bit.
If you sell and you make a 100% profit, then yes you should be okay to sell for now.

[LMGTFY]

Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after. The holiday is followed by new year's eve and Chinese new year on Feb 8 and celebrations. Play it safe, sell some of your coins now only to re-buy as the price goes down.

Really?

Because, looking at what happened historically, I don't see it.

• Here's December 2011 on MtGox - a ~40% rise through December, followed by a further climb, before falling back to "only" a 40% rise by the start of March.
• ...and December 2012 on Stamp - a ~20% rise to the end of the year, followed by a spectacular rise at the start of 2013.
• For completeness, December 2013 - we did see a drop, of ~30% to the year's end, which then continued through to the end of February.
• ...and last December (2014) - a drop of ~25% by New Year, with the drop continuing until mid-January before heading back up again (not hitting the January 1st price, though - we've only recently recovered to that level).
  

I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall, but I do know that past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after." Hell, December-February 2012-13 is what I look at to cheer myself up when I'm worried BTC might never rise again!

[bitlancr]

If it does go down during or after Christmas, I would rather just hold right now and buy in some more when I get the chance.
I'm in it for the long term so I don't feel the need to sell right now.

[worhiper_-_]

As with everything in the BTC world there is no foolproof plan.

Only deal with what you're OK losing.

Do your research and don't necessarily rely on others.

You should change thread title.  Say "Almost Foolproof plan" as you agree it is no foolproof plans in bitcoin.   And I could be all wet.

I just see difficulty going up and up... I don't think your going to get so lucky that you can call it fool proof in today's mining.

I agree, I'll do so. I also say in the OP that people should only sell just a portion (implying not to sell all) of their BTC just in case.

[worhiper_-_]

Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after. The holiday is followed by new year's eve and Chinese new year on Feb 8 and celebrations. Play it safe, sell some of your coins now only to re-buy as the price goes down.

Really?

Because, looking at what happened historically, I don't see it.

• Here's December 2011 on MtGox - a ~40% rise through December, followed by a further climb, before falling back to "only" a 40% rise by the start of March.
• ...and December 2012 on Stamp - a ~20% rise to the end of the year, followed by a spectacular rise at the start of 2013.
• For completeness, December 2013 - we did see a drop, of ~30% to the year's end, which then continued through to the end of February.
• ...and last December (2014) - a drop of ~25% by New Year, with the drop continuing until mid-January before heading back up again (not hitting the January 1st price, though - we've only recently recovered to that level).
  

I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall, but I do know that past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after." Hell, December-February 2012-13 is what I look at to cheer myself up when I'm worried BTC might never rise again!

So what's your point? Will bitcoin stop being volatile and go to the moon in 2016? lol

[LuckyYOU]

You can't say that this will happen for sure. We'll just have to wait and see what will happen.
I like to hold my bitcoins for now since I'm seeing it as a savings account. If it does drop I might be able to buy more.

[LMGTFY]

Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after. The holiday is followed by new year's eve and Chinese new year on Feb 8 and celebrations. Play it safe, sell some of your coins now only to re-buy as the price goes down.

Really?

Because, looking at what happened historically, I don't see it.

• Here's December 2011 on MtGox - a ~40% rise through December, followed by a further climb, before falling back to "only" a 40% rise by the start of March.
• ...and December 2012 on Stamp - a ~20% rise to the end of the year, followed by a spectacular rise at the start of 2013.
• For completeness, December 2013 - we did see a drop, of ~30% to the year's end, which then continued through to the end of February.
• ...and last December (2014) - a drop of ~25% by New Year, with the drop continuing until mid-January before heading back up again (not hitting the January 1st price, though - we've only recently recovered to that level).
  

I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall, but I do know that past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after." Hell, December-February 2012-13 is what I look at to cheer myself up when I'm worried BTC might never rise again!

So what's your point? Will bitcoin stop being volatile and go to the moon in 2016? lol

My point is 'past years don't justify the statement "Historically, bitcoin's price goes down during Christmas celebratory season or after."' Regarding your question, "I don't know whether this December-February will see a rise or a fall".

tl;dr - the OP's premise is not supported by the historical data.

Edit: Volatility, however, is historically low. It's been rising over the last month, but it's still much lower than it has been.

[worhiper_-_]

tl;dr - the OP's premise is not supported by the historical data.

Historical data does in fact stand behind what I'm saying in the OP.






I'm was just trying to keep things short. I know there are variations from year to year, but all an all, ever since bitcoin trading started becoming big there are major drops around this period each year (the above images are all the same period each year). This year, we're also seeing an serious rise. IMO it's perfectly rational to believe that the price will go down again somewhere down the road at the not so distant future.

[LMGTFY]

tl;dr - the OP's premise is not supported by the historical data.

Historical data does in fact stand behind what I'm saying in the OP.

<images snipped>

I'm was just trying to keep things short. I know there are variations from year to year, but all an all, ever since bitcoin trading started becoming big there are major drops around this period each year (the above images are all the same period each year). This year, we're also seeing an serious rise. IMO it's perfectly rational to believe that the price will go down again somewhere down the road at the not so distant future.

Well, if "this time of year" starts in October I'd have to admit that 2012 and 2013 did see drops, despite rises afterwards - and we did see a fall this November. October through to Chinese New Year does seem a long period to be basing this on, though.

[croato]

Only sure thing is that we can not predict price at all. If we touch $500-600, i could cash amount i have bought recently (at $330)but my main stash wont be touched before five digits. Personally, i think we could see higher price around holidays and small dump after, but all that is pure gamble.

[Karartma1]

Historically speaking we should have a pump every mid november/early december... but no history involved here! So I would not follow any kind of advice, sorry. 
Actually, I'd rather hold as usual.

[randy8777]

nah. i am not planning to sell at this price. if it indeed goes lower, then it's fine too. i am holding, any price the comming weeks is not important to me. i look at the bigger picture. if it goes down a lot, for example to lower $300 levels, then i might buy to increase my coins. i don't think that will happen.

[chesthing]

This isn't a bad price, when things get out of hand at 2x these levels - then, you are screwed if you are still out.

[bearex]

You will be probably right, because the price will drop from this bubble in about a week or less. So my thoughts are - sell at $450 if it even reaches it.

[Mickeyb]

Funny enough I was just reading and commenting through the thread that it said quite opposite, how the Christmas will make us go up since there is a lot of buying happening at this time of the year!

OP don't do this. Last Christmas yes, there was a quite a drop during holidays, but we were in the downtrend. You do remember 2013, no drop at all but the ATH!

2015 holiday season can be much different in its way. No-one knows this!

[worhiper_-_]

Funny enough I was just reading and commenting through the thread that it said quite opposite, how the Christmas will make us go up since there is a lot of buying happening at this time of the year!

OP don't do this. Last Christmas yes, there was a quite a drop during holidays, but we were in the downtrend. You do remember 2013, no drop at all but the ATH!

2015 holiday season can be much different in its way. No-one knows this!

The only way this plan could fail is if bitcoin volatility sudenly stopped and someone strapped it on a rocket to the moon. 400$ too high for the levels we saw during 2015 so it's a safe to assume it'll go down again, hard to tell how much but it will.

[White sugar]

How can you know if price won't rise until near Christmas then fall to a bigger price than the 420 of today?

Supposing that your Christmas dump theory is right

[r3t4rD4life]

Towelie sell at 420. Lochness Monster buy back at about tree fitty. What could go wrong?