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Author Topic: Bitcoin is a bubble.  (Read 8960 times)
rebuilder
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June 07, 2011, 11:22:56 AM
 #21

I don't agree it's a bubble, nor am I saying it's not. No way to know. I agree Bitcoin, if seen as an investment, is high-risk and think it's very prudent to keep reminding people of this.

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BubbleBoy
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June 07, 2011, 12:07:21 PM
 #22

Anything that performs well and then badly is retroactively referred to as a bubble. It can only be a bubble if it pops, which no evidence points towards it doing any time soon.

That's untrue. A commodity that's rallying without a plausible change in fundamentals is a bubble, and it can be identified as such by anyone qualified to analyse the fundamentals; most of the time this means disproving the cause claimed by the bulls ("paradigm shift", "technological marvel", "unique opportunity", "limited supply" etc.)

So the question is: who you trust qualified to inspect the fundamentals ? In the case of Bitcoin that's a complex task that touches on contentious and long standing problems in the field of economics, sociology and psychology: What gives money value ? Is inflation good for the society ? How about deflation ? Should monetary policy be used as a tool to regulate the business cycle ? Is such a thing even possible ?

The answers to those questions are for most people a matter closer to faith than reason, as such it's hard to put your finger on the Bitcoin bubble with mathematical precision. Yet, that does not preclude the insightful one to identify the bubble before it pops, and steer clear of it, or ride it.
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June 07, 2011, 10:41:43 PM
 #23

That kiba cartoon just seems like reality.  Which is probably why you're not getting any articulate responses to your question.

Are there twice as many sites taking bitcoin as there were a week ago?  Has some huge company like Google said they'll be putting money into developing more user-friendly Bitcoin infrastructure?  Is there a plan for a decentralized exchange involving more than just having people sending in their bank account numbers and PINs and having runners in masks sneaking around to ATMs at night?  Has the U.S. government set up a site that gives a sizable credit to online merchants who pay their taxes in Bitcoin next year?

Did alpaca socks turn out to cure herpes?

What earth shattering event did I miss that explains a $20 bitcoin?
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June 07, 2011, 10:44:28 PM
 #24

(Well, I guess I shouldn't exaggerate-- $19.98001 Bitcoin.)
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June 07, 2011, 10:48:14 PM
 #25

Anything that performs well and then badly is retroactively referred to as a bubble. It can only be a bubble if it pops, which no evidence points towards it doing any time soon.

That's untrue. A commodity that's rallying without a plausible change in fundamentals is a bubble, and it can be identified as such by anyone qualified to analyse the fundamentals; most of the time this means disproving the cause claimed by the bulls ("paradigm shift", "technological marvel", "unique opportunity", "limited supply" etc.)

So the question is: who you trust qualified to inspect the fundamentals ? In the case of Bitcoin that's a complex task that touches on contentious and long standing problems in the field of economics, sociology and psychology: What gives money value ? Is inflation good for the society ? How about deflation ? Should monetary policy be used as a tool to regulate the business cycle ? Is such a thing even possible ?

The answers to those questions are for most people a matter closer to faith than reason, as such it's hard to put your finger on the Bitcoin bubble with mathematical precision. Yet, that does not preclude the insightful one to identify the bubble before it pops, and steer clear of it, or ride it.

Translation: Don't be a realist. Don't think for yourself. There are authorities who are kind enough to do your thinking for you. They know everything, and they can predict the future. You are not qualified even to reserve judgment: just ask the nearest authority what your opinion should be.

No thanks.

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June 07, 2011, 11:13:46 PM
 #26

Nobody agree with me?

I completely agree with you.  There is certainly risk of a bubble.

Don't invest anything in bitcoin that you can't afford to lose.

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June 07, 2011, 11:42:30 PM
 #27

I'll explain my perspective not for the sake of the market (which is obviously doesn't need my promotional efforts), but for the sake of the skeptics.

The earth-shattering, paradigm-shifting event that is sending the price of bitcoin sky high is (wait for it..): the adoption of bitcoin.

Bitcoin.  decentralized, p2p, secure, digital tokens.  Once you have bitcoins, no authority can seize them from you.  They are yours forever (barring any undiscovered vulnerabilities, of course, and you still have to protect yourself from theft).

Paradigm-shifting.  This is not Just Another Virtual Currency backed by some dot com that you can't redeem for dollars.  So it has nothing to do with what goods you can buy.  Because with bitcoins, you can buy dollars.  $1 dollar three months ago.  $22 dollars today.

And with dollars you can buy goods.

EDIT:  P.S. Network difficulty is the primary fundamental backing bitcoin: http://bitcoin.sipa.be/

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June 07, 2011, 11:47:24 PM
 #28

Nobody agree with me?

About MtGox cheating? Probably not, Bitcoins are getting a lot of media coverage and people are panic-buying, IMO.

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June 08, 2011, 03:44:47 AM
 #29

 Hmm ? It is obvious. I am always looked at a people, that call us to take a credit to buy a bitcoins, like to a crazy shims.

Bitcoin is experiment. He has some known weak sides, and nobody knows, how much unknown.

Witnessing start of first decentralized crypto currency is breath taken, - like at start of first star traveler.
But nobody can guarantee, that this first start, will succeed.
Anyway, that experiment will provide us with lot of data.

Nobody, if he is in mind, will not advice you to risk more, than you can afford to loose, in that  experiment.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
Today`s strange music :
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Yesterday`s  strange music:
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June 08, 2011, 03:50:52 AM
 #30


What earth shattering event did I miss that explains a $20 bitcoin?

You assume that the market price a week ago was the "correct" price. Consider that a "correction" can also happen in the up direction, can it not? =)
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June 08, 2011, 04:04:32 AM
 #31

The "event" is the dozens of news stories in the media, especially the drugs story, which leads people to believe that maybe this isn't just some silly game geeks are playing with themselves.
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June 08, 2011, 04:06:54 AM
 #32

Geeks playing just to get some weed ? heh.

We will  meet in not-so-distant future.
Today`s strange music :
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8mCgjbBPMk
Yesterday`s  strange music:
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June 08, 2011, 04:07:34 AM
 #33

I'll collect all bubble and manipulation links to this thread.

price maninpulation
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13221.0

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June 08, 2011, 04:45:27 AM
 #34

So are we all guilty of a Pump & Dump?
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12553.0

The $1000 Bitcoin, yes it's worth at least that.
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8248.0

Is the recent fast increase of bitcoin value a bubble waiting to burst?
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=6879.0

Speculating on future prices
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=12650.0

Anyone else here went through the Dot Com bubble in 1999? It is the same thing.
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13243.0

How to survive a bubble
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=6332.0

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June 08, 2011, 05:03:06 AM
 #35

Nobody agree with me?

Lots of people agree with you. They all start their own threads which are almost exactly the same as this one.

(I don't agree with you.)
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June 08, 2011, 05:14:26 AM
 #36

A bitcoin bubble has popped every week for the last month.

gongcheng
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June 08, 2011, 05:38:52 AM
 #37

bubble imminent
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3396.0

Article: the Bitcoin Bubble
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=6659.0
http://ploum.net/post/bitcoin-bubble

How is the current market state NOT a bubble?
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=8196.0

Bitcoin price increases are just getting started
http://forum.bitcoin.org/?topic=7985.0

Is MtGox inflating the bubble?
http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=13214.0



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June 08, 2011, 05:41:30 AM
 #38


Dude sell us some puts https://bitoption.org/?closedate=2011-07-28
That's the best way to increase credibility of your posts.

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June 08, 2011, 11:57:45 AM
 #39

unk: there are a lot of people that have withdrawn this much from mtgox. Ask the big miners if you want someone other than me to confirm that.

I'd say the reason for the price rise is pretty simple; a lot more people into bitcoin and a lot easier ways to get money into mtgox. So I think it is only a bubble if the userbase is a bubble. 

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June 08, 2011, 12:28:00 PM
 #40


That's untrue. A commodity that's rallying without a plausible change in fundamentals is a bubble, and it can be identified as such by anyone qualified to analyse the fundamentals; most of the time this means disproving the cause claimed by the bulls ("paradigm shift", "technological marvel", "unique opportunity", "limited supply" etc.)


Is going from being a niche hacker-project to mainstream news not a paradigm shift?  Someone else mentioned Microsoft.  I think this is a very similar situation.  Microsoft's value went up dramatically as computers changed from being a device used only by a small minority to basically everyone.  It makes sense to me that bitcoin value will go up as they go from being a niche product to mainstream.

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