Weekly network hashrate forecasts

[organofcorti]

I've started to post weekly network forecasts, based on methods outlined in previous blog posts NPW 10.2, NPW 10.3, and NPW 10.4

Part of this post is below, and the rest is at: http://organofcorti.blogspot.com/2012/12/weekly-network-forecast-3rd-december.html

Datasets:
Model 1 forecast
Model 2 forecast
Model 3 forecast
Model 4 forecast
Canary modelled estimate

2. Tables
 The first table below shows the network hashrate estimates created by the various models, along with the date at which they forecast to occur. More details on models f1, f2, f3, and f4 are in post 10.4; the details and reasons for the canary model are in post 10.3.

Simply put, the f models forecast the network hashrate at a particular date up to four weeks in advance. The canary model is is based only on recent network and price history, and is more likely to detect significant changes from the model based only on previous network hashrates and the current MTGOX US$BTC price.

The "Error, Ghps" given below is the difference between the most recently completed estimate and the actual network hashrate at that date. Errors are assumed normally distributed and a 95% confidence interval calculated. More detail is provided by the error probability, which is calculated from the estimated normal CDF.

Anyone keen to take bets?