Dec 18 to Jan 1 diff thread setup picks are now Closed!!!

[ezeminer]

Today is a horrible day. Caused a huge spike. Will probably end up being +20% for the day.

At least price went up a little it's around 426... so not the 450+ but still going up so it's not all horrible.  Bitwisdom still does not look horrible but it could be wrong if some spikes happen:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    104,628,550,777 (+11.96%)
Adjust time:    After 551 Blocks, About 3.4 days
Hashrate(?):    849,586,844 GH/s

Price Down from that 450, Hash up to 0.85 EH, Difficulty almost to 105B
Price now at 428


Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   105,031,825,635 (+12.40%)
Adjust time:   After 487 Blocks, About 3.0 days
Hashrate(?):   856,769,229 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes


Boy this could get scarier.

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[philipma1957]

better today


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,883,429,302 (+12.24%)
Adjust time:   After 443 Blocks, About 2.7 days
Hashrate(?):   853,108,949 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.7 minutes
3 blocks: 26.1 minutes
6 blocks: 52.2 minutes
Updated:   10:20 (3.3 minutes ago)



https://blockchain.info/blocks

390662 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 15:20:31

390565 (Main Chain)   2015-12-28 00:04:49


98 blocks in the time it takes to do  92 blocks or a 154 block pace for today.

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

[Mikestang]

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

[philipma1957]

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.


 but 157  138  163  171  202      146         the bold numbers are gear turning off. 

   that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment     and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment. 

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash.  Which will happen some time in 2016.

[RichBC]

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.


 but 157  138  163  171  202     146         the bold numbers are gear turning off.  

   that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment     and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.  

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash.  Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

[philipma1957]

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.


 but 157  138  163  171  202     146         the bold numbers are gear turning off.  

   that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment     and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.  

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash.  Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

sure 163 to 171 I can believe that is variance.  Not 171 to 202 to 147  too much swing to fast for the entire network.

The bad thing is it makes the 202 more believable  as top size of network.  which means the network pedal to the floor is more then 1000ph

[RichBC]

there is no doubt in my mind that power on and power off at a massive scale is happening.

Seems to me to be a lot more "power on" than off.  A 10%+ adjustment at this point is almost insane - the increase is the value of the entire network like 18 months ago.  I can't believe there is still so much gear out there coming online...

yes no question we are growing like mad.


 but 157  138  163  171  202     146         the bold numbers are gear turning off.  

   that 202 is very likely the real top end of all gear at the moment     and todays 146 or so is off or downclock for the whole network.

the scary part to me is the 202 blocks the other day would have been 240 blocks last adjustment.

I also think the 202 is what the network really is at this moment.  

the most frightening thing is I belief the asic builders are just going to build and sell until we crash.  Which will happen some time in 2016.

Surely some of the variance is just "Luck", a Day is a short period of time. Yes there is growth but some of the apparent swings are just High & Low days that need to be averaged?

Rich

sure 163 to 171 I can believe that is variance.  Not 171 to 202 to 147  too much swing to fast for the entire network.

The bad thing is it makes the 202 more believable  as top size of network.  which means the network pedal to the floor is more then 1000ph

I agree it's a very large swing, and unfortunately statistics & probability not at all my thing, but suspect it is still possible that it is just variance? However if not what is the "theory" as to why all this additional capacity would be turned on for sufficiently long to affect a single Day & then be switched off again?

Rich

[d57heinz]

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg13379545#msg13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

[RichBC]

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg13379545#msg13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

Very interesting, and says that this is a real increase, still leaves unanswered why it is switched on & then off again?

A question for those that know? How is the network Hash Rate & Individual Pool shares measured? Is it all worked out from the speed that blocks are solved & who solved them or is there other information involved?


Rich

[philipma1957]

Kano explained it in this thread here .. I made mention to my wallet giving me a warning that we had double the expected amount of blocks in a 4 hr period.. here is the start of the post..
Kano gives the statistics of this being variance.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=789369.msg13379545#msg13379545

Best Regards
d57heinz

Very interesting, and says that this is a real increase, still leaves unanswered why it is switched on & then off again?

A question for those that know? How is the network Hash Rate & Individual Pool shares measured? Is it all worked out from the speed that blocks are solved & who solved them or is there other information involved?


Rich

my two guesses involve China and/ or bitfury.

Bitfury developed more hash power and has stated they opened a 40 megawatt plant 40 megawatt with immersion cooling in Georgia .

 I estimate they could have 175 to 225 ph  and when you do big 40 block drops and jumps you need to turn on and off about 200 ph.
Somewhere I did a post on temps in Georgia Russia and they have been pretty warm.  So maybe the immersion cooling would prefer below 0c  and it has been above 0c  .

Second choice is a Chinese ghost city that has 20 or 30 ph in old gear and is turned on and off when allowed to by corrupt officials.

Could be both.  but when you see these 40 block swings five to six times the last  5 weeks it is a power off power on deal.

The worst part is  the big number is most likely how much hash there really is.

I have not developed working theory of why you would do it if you have the ability to stay high power all the time. So I think it may be a cooling issue it it is all bit fury and a power availability issue if it is all China.

I do think it is both not just one as I do not think China has a full 200ph in ghost cities.

[Mikestang]

A question for those that know? How is the network Hash Rate & Individual Pool shares measured? Is it all worked out from the speed that blocks are solved & who solved them or is there other information involved?

Network hash rate is estimated based on the time it takes to solve blocks at the current difficulty, there is no absolute measure of total network hash rate and when you think about it how could there be?

Pool shares are measure by the respective pools and reported accordingly.

[philipma1957]

we are at  (+11.54%)


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty



Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,230,458,912 (+11.54%)
Adjust time:   After 366 Blocks, About 2.2 days                   366 blocks left  so maybe Weds we will know is there  a winner or a rollover
Hashrate(?):   818,039,989 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.2 minutes
6 blocks: 52.5 minutes
Updated:   22:10 (3.7 minutes ago)

[adaseb]

And today again was a slightly slower day as we finished at 150 blocks which is only 6 over which is +4%.

So no idea why this type of gear is switched on and switched off.

[philipma1957]

And today again was a slightly slower day as we finished at 150 blocks which is only 6 over which is +4%.

So no idea why this type of gear is switched on and switched off.

let me see if I can find the temps in Russia  as I suspect it is bitfury and the new plant has a cooling issue


here is what I posted on last spec thread.



I would  wonder  if they are having an over heating issue.  Someone needs to see how cold it is at the new  mine  in

 Tbilisi, Georgia


http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/UGTB/2015/12/17/MonthlyCalendar.html?req_city=Tbilisi&req_statename=Georgia&reqdb.zip=00000&reqdb.magic=1&reqdb.wmo=37545#calendar


dec 1   41-48    170
dec 2   37-51    158
dec 3   39-44    141
dec 4   35-42    154
dec 5   33-46    173
dec 6   28-48    157
dec 7   37-46    149
dec 8   41-51    171
dec 9   39-50    174
dec 10 37-41    212   cold day best test?
dec 11 30-42    157
dec 12 26-44    169
dec 13 28-50    137    hotter day backed off?
dec 14 26-42    197   cold day good test?
dec 15 30-50    185    does not quite match
dec 16 33-46


I can't quite correlate  temps with blocks worth a shot to keep looking at it.


and here is a set of newer numbers
dec 18  26-42f 170
dec 19  24-46f  150
dec 20  23-50f   164
dec 21  39-50f   152
dec 22  44-57f   150
dec 23  42-51f   157
dec 24  42-50f   138
dec 25  44-50f   163
dec 26  35-51f   171
dec 27  44-51f   202
dec 28  44-50f   152




the best I have is  they suffer heat creep  when outside temp approaches 50f

so they turn gear down a bit. let the oil immersion tanks cool


An easy way to find this to be true is the temps go to 5f- 20f  and the bounce up and down stops.

All speculation of course.  But somebody is cranking gear up and down.

now the number temp for the:


 29th is 36-54
30th is  35-51
31st is  33-39  so a big spike?
1st is   31-37  big again
2nd is 17-33   big again
3rd is  11-27   big again


http://www.wunderground.com/weather-forecast/zmw:00000.1.37545

this set of temps coming should kill my theory or help it seem more plausible.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

yeah and at   +11.10%    I stand a small chance of winning it.

The main contenders are below:

+9.9   = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions >>>>>>>>>>>  would get prize if contest stopped now!
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929

[adaseb]

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

yeah and at   +11.10%    I stand a small chance of winning it.

The main contenders are below:

+9.9   = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions >>>>>>>>>>>  would get prize if contest stopped now!
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929

It will definately be around +10% or so. Most likely it will be those gaps that nobody chose and we move over on to next week.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom Morning:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:    103,824,023,966 (+11.10%)
Adjust time:    After 282 Blocks, About 1.7 days
Hashrate(?):    790,666,580 GH/s

Good news for now is price is seeming to be on it's way upwards again.  It's around 429 so not bad another 20 dollars and I will be happy in short term.   And hopefully in coming weeks we can go above that.

yeah and at   +11.10%    I stand a small chance of winning it.

The main contenders are below:

+9.9   = mavericklm
+10.0 = zebedee
+10.1 = Valkir
+10.2 = VirosaGITS
+10.3 = philipma1957
+10.5 = lanfeusst
+10.7 = Mikestang
+11.1 = 64dimensions
+11.2 = alh
+11.3 = Tupsu >>>>>>>>>>>  would get prize if contest stopped now!
+11.5 = pusttiu
+11.6 = ingiltere
+12.0 = Swordsoffreedom
+12.1 = wpt1wpt1
+12.2 = d57heinz
+12.3 = keystroke
+12.4 = vapourminer
+12.5 = frank0929

It will definately be around +10% or so. Most likely it will be those gaps that nobody chose and we move over on to next week.

there are 27 possible slots  from 9.9 to 12.5  we have 18 of them covered.  so ⅓ chance of a rollover to .516 btc


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> (+11.32%)
Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   104,026,281,982 (+11.32%)
Adjust time:   After 241 Blocks, About 1.5 days
Hashrate(?):   796,535,338 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 8.8 minutes
3 blocks: 26.4 minutes
6 blocks: 52.9 minutes
Updated:   17:35 (5.2 minutes ago)

oh as an aside it was not cold near the bitfury plant in Russia and blocks today are at a 158 pace.
it is supposed to be warm in Russia tomorrow so I wonder if we stay close to 160 again.

[Mikestang]

I was just checking my usb miners and saw this on the screen:



8 blocks solved in ~10 minutes, that's just crazy!  At least it helps clear the tx backlog...

My guess continues to be a contender.

[philipma1957]

I was just checking my usb miners and saw this on the screen:



8 blocks solved in ~10 minutes, that's just crazy!  At least it helps clear the tx backlog...

My guess continues to be a contender.

looks like bitfury turned up the farm a bit!