Dec 18 to Jan 1 diff thread setup picks are now Closed!!!

[philipma1957]

Okay we rolled over to bring this to a really good prize of .416 btc


No new accounts

The contest is free.  You must have Signed up your account Oct 31st 2015 or earlier.

You must have 30 posts or more.


So we are now offering the largest 'free' prize ever 0.416 btc  I am not rolling over the  sidehack-novac compac usb stick

 The picks open at block 600 made :

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:  

Adjust time:   After 1416 Blocks, About 13.6 days    at 1416 left or 600 made we start



and close at block 1200 made.

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:  
Adjust time:   After 816 Blocks, About 13.6 days At 816 left or 1200 made we stop.
  

please make you pick like this

1.0 = philipma1957
1.1 = mavericklm  if positve

or

-1.0 = philipma1957
-0.9 = mavericklm   if negative

that allows easy click and drag.

Funding for this is in place I have .416 btc for funding  and I have more funding for further contests.

I am thinking of  doing a twist here

 " there will be a winner  even if no one gets it I will award it to the close pick.
 last number was 18.14%  which is in the 18.10 to 18.19 slot

So 18.1 was not picked    but 18.0  would have been the close pick"

I do not want to make prize rollover endlessly so I think this is a good twist.

but please let me know if you think another rollover is better.

[1713897165]

1713897165

[1713897165]

1713897165

[philipma1957]

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[notlist3d]

Last period was not much fun, hopefully this one goes down even a little.  Really impressive on amount's of rollovers that is getting to be fun.   

Or maybe we can get lucky and value goes up even more I would like to see 500 since all difficulty changes being high recently. But not sure how realistic that is.

[RichBC]

I am thinking of  doing a twist here

 " there will be a winner  even if no one gets it I will award it to the close pick.
 last number was 18.14%  which is in the 18.10 to 18.19 slot

So 18.1 was not picked    but 18.0  would have been the close pick"

I do not want to make prize rollover endlessly so I think this is a good twist.

but please let me know if you think another rollover is better.

How about if there is no winner you roll over half and award half to the close pick?

Rich

[notlist3d]

I am thinking of  doing a twist here

 " there will be a winner  even if no one gets it I will award it to the close pick.
 last number was 18.14%  which is in the 18.10 to 18.19 slot

So 18.1 was not picked    but 18.0  would have been the close pick"

I do not want to make prize rollover endlessly so I think this is a good twist.

but please let me know if you think another rollover is better.

How about if there is no winner you roll over half and award half to the close pick?

Rich

I think the rollover adds to excitement.  Part of fun is it getting big and people missing it, just like lotto.  When it get's big people go crazy.

I think more 1/4th or so to closest.  I think it's a good idea on closest but I think keep majority rolling till hit for fun.  But I could be wrong.

[philipma1957]

yeah I am the first to say a high rollover is exciting but a certain point it is too high
 prize is too big .  This thread has given away more then 3btc in coins and gear. Maybe we allow for one more full rollover if it happens. But ideas are welcome.

We are funded for Dec Jan and Feb . So one more rollover is easy enough to do.  If someone hits it problem solved.

[notlist3d]

yeah I am the first to say a high rollover is exciting but a certain point it is too high
 prize is too big .  This thread has given away more then 3btc in coins and gear. Maybe we allow for one more full rollover if it happens. But ideas are welcome.

We are funded for Dec Jan and Feb . So one more rollover is easy enough to do.  If someone hits it problem solved.

I think we will see some wait a little longer.  A lot of us that put in early guess were not even in ballpark of it.  So I'm guessing some more wait a bit to see where it goes.

So I think we just might do it this time if people wait... but you never know.

[indiemax]

I do like the idea of the rollover it does add to the excitement

hopefully  the difficulty will return to  much lower values, then I do believe  the entrants will pick up the gaps in the predicted range

giving a clear winner

the huge diff increases can't last,can they?!

[RichBC]

the huge diff increases can't last,can they?!

I would like to think so but.... S7 & Avalon6 will keep shipping, SP50 may already be out there but I think the big impact is yet to come. Bitfury are going to come on stream sometime in the next few Months. BW.com also in the next Month or two, KNC, A4 etc. There is just so much happening and so much in the wings at the moment. I think we should expect big Difficulty increases for at least the next 2 to 3 Months


Rich

[philipma1957]

the huge diff increases can't last,can they?!

I would like to think so but.... S7 & Avalon6 will keep shipping, SP50 may already be out there but I think the big impact is yet to come. Bitfury are going to come on stream sometime in the next few Months. BW.com also in the next Month or two, KNC, A4 etc. There is just so much happening and so much in the wings at the moment. I think we should expect big Difficulty increases for at least the next 2 to 3 Months


Rich

A 1000 th miner at 500 watts with a diff of 55  and a coin price of 230 made  about  $1.204 in a day. power 7 cents.
A 1000 th miner at 250 watts with a diff of 140 and a coin price of 460 makes about $1.194 in a day. power 7 cents

so a diff of 140 with 2 s-7's

would be like a diff of 55 with 5 s-5's

sadly we are at 93  and 140 is not too far off. but I have to think that it could go to 140 with no issues.  as long as price supports it and a coin price of 460 supports it.

[adaseb]

I am late to the mining game but back in 2012-2013-2014 how many ASIC manufacturers were there? There must of been dozens since mining was so profitable.

[philipma1957]

I am late to the mining game but back in 2012-2013-2014 how many ASIC manufacturers were there? There must of been dozens since mining was so profitable.

A lot came out in fall of 2013  when coins  went from 90 to 1100

We made 170 blocks yesterday.
Since  the day was part old diff and part new diff the 170 reads high if you based it on the new diff.

Today will be the first all 93 diff number.

My guess is  we will be under 15.
I think quite a bit of last weeks jump was the bit fury mine going on line.

[notlist3d]

I am late to the mining game but back in 2012-2013-2014 how many ASIC manufacturers were there? There must of been dozens since mining was so profitable.

A lot came out in fall of 2013  when coins  went from 90 to 1100

We made 170 blocks yesterday.
Since  the day was part old diff and part new diff the 170 reads high if you based it on the new diff.

Today will be the first all 93 diff number.

My guess is  we will be under 15.
I think quite a bit of last weeks jump was the bit fury mine going on line.

A lot shared chips at beginning.  Look at A1 chips for example.  It's hard to tell how many used them in their miner.   But it seemed lots more makers of machines then of chips. 

Now it seems company makes chips and miner (for most part).  So it really does limit it quite a bit more now.  I don't see chips being sold like they were during first asics.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Dec 18 2015   170
Dec 19 2015   150
Dec 20 2015



https://blockchain.info/blocks


389363 (Main Chain)   2015-12-20 12:57:21
389268 (Main Chain)   2015-12-20 00:09:07


96 blocks today  and should be 78 in 13 hours

So this could be a 170 + day

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+16.91%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   109,247,635,615 (+16.91%)
Adjust time:   After 1740 Blocks, About 11.6 days
Hashrate(?):   705,106,195 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.5 minutes
Updated:   8:5 (3.1 minutes ago)



Price is still 455 at coinbase.

[d57heinz]

well looks like they held off till after diff jump to throw it back on.  Net hashrate over last 24 hours is going up  currently  Net Hashrate 873,007.31 TH/s as per bitcoind..  Only way i can think of that they would do this is to not damage sales.. If they just turned this all on when s7 came out then they would have had to dump price much much sooner!!!  Havent seen any crazy swings near 960 th/s again but we are headed that direction today... have to see how high we go before it relaxes again..

Best Regards
d57heinz

edit. and here comes the price dump.. selling my coins NOW lol  

Such a fickle market.. And to think the ones that have the most market share in terms of hash will continue to grow. so the 7 mil or so bitcoins left we can pretty much divvy it up between all the huge miners.. The question that it leaves me is how will this market not be manipulated when only 5 or so people essentially have all the bitcoins???

was able to cash out at 452.. gonna be a ruff ride for a bit i think..

Best regards
d57heinz

[valkir]

Look like another big jump so far 

[philipma1957]

Look like another big jump so far  

 the lowest I can find

https://bitcoincharts.com/

Blocks   389403
Total BTC   14.985M
 
Difficulty   93448670796
Estimated   96038295084 in 1701 blks
 
Network total   803850.738 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   7.21 / 499 s

The one we use a lot

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty  

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   108,803,158,243 (+16.43%)
Adjust time:   After 1701 Blocks, About 11.4 days
Hashrate(?):   706,585,108 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.7 minutes
Updated:   14:45 (3.4 minutes ago)


so low number is         96.03 diff  a 2.77%
average of the two is 102 diff a 9% jump
higher number is 108.80 diff a 16.43% jump


  I am hoping for the 9% jump  which is still big and close to 90ph

[adaseb]

Yes its pretty bad yesterday was like +7 and today will most likely be +10% after the large +18% increase its bad for mining equipment.

[philipma1957]

http://btc.blockr.io/charts

Dec 18 2015   170
Dec 19 2015   150
Dec 20 2015   165
Dec 21 2015


https://blockchain.info/blocks


389456 (Main Chain)   2015-12-21 03:06:21

389433 (Main Chain)   2015-12-21 00:13:17



24 blocks for the beginning of Monday the 21st  and should be 18 in 3 hours

So this could be a 180 + day

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty -------- (+15.89%)

Bitcoin Difficulty:   93,448,670,796
Estimated Next Difficulty:   108,295,658,578 (+15.89%)
Adjust time:   After 1648 Blocks, About 11.0 days
Hashrate(?):   730,153,186 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.9 minutes
6 blocks: 57.8 minutes
   





Price is  431 at coinbase.  not much good news so far.

[Lboss]

yeah I am the first to say a high rollover is exciting but a certain point it is too high
 prize is too big .  This thread has given away more then 3btc in coins and gear. Maybe we allow for one more full rollover if it happens. But ideas are welcome.

We are funded for Dec Jan and Feb . So one more rollover is easy enough to do.  If someone hits it problem solved.

Well, it depends on how much you are OK to roll over .

There are two ways:

1-) Roll over to certain amount like 0.4 or 0.5 then again if no one guesses exactly, then;
a) give all to closest one i.e. give all to 1 person
b) divide all among two closest guessers
c) give some portion of the prize to closest one and continue to rollover(ex: if prize 0.5 then give 0.1 to closest and rollover for next time that next prize will be again 0.5

2-) Give some portion if anyone doesnt guess exactly each time and rollover remaining. Again it depends on how much you want to rollover. Give 50% of the prize each week if you want max prize is 0.2 BTC. If you want max prize is 0.3 BTC then give 1/3 (33%) of the prize to the closest ad so on.

My choice is second one. I think it can be still exciting w/o getting unwanted interference (.i.e. new/suspicious accounts ) while people hope to get some prize

Btw, it seems that diff. still continues to rise with high rate.