Long term OIL

[Barnabe]

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Yeah, I have no idea why anyone would bother setting up an electric grid for semi trucks; it's completely useless (to an extent) and it is easily replaced by other existing infrastructure such as trains or even cargo ships, depending on the destination of the cargo

That's the whole point. We don't know the reasons why they are doing that. They could be testing powerful electric engines suitable for heavy and fast trucks. Almost 100% (with just one exception that I know about) of ultra-class haul trucks are electrically driven (equipped with diesel generators)...

Each wheel is essentially an electric motor in such trucks

Yeah, but it has more air drag and more friction (rubber wheel vs steel rail). In terms of energy, it's way less effective than a train and it requires almost as much equipment and it requires way more drivers per ton. The only good point is that they have less need for loading/unloading of containers.

In short drives, it might be slightly more efficient, but in long distances there is no way this is better than a train.

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[hermanhs09]

My theory about long term oil is that it will constantly fall after some important event.
I may be wrong,but the electric car's industry is making bigger and bigger every year.When we will get to the moment that electric cars will be cheaper than regular ones,
we may have some big falls at the price of oil.Remember it is only my opinion

[botany]

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Yeah, I have no idea why anyone would bother setting up an electric grid for semi trucks; it's completely useless (to an extent) and it is easily replaced by other existing infrastructure such as trains or even cargo ships, depending on the destination of the cargo.

It would honestly be more than likely cheaper to have the trucks use fuel as opposed to try and use electricity anyways.

We don't know how the economies of scale work out. The government could have worked out that in the long run these electric trucks work out cheaper and are environment friendly too.

[Barnabe]

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Yeah, I have no idea why anyone would bother setting up an electric grid for semi trucks; it's completely useless (to an extent) and it is easily replaced by other existing infrastructure such as trains or even cargo ships, depending on the destination of the cargo.

It would honestly be more than likely cheaper to have the trucks use fuel as opposed to try and use electricity anyways.

We don't know how the economies of scale work out. The government could have worked out that in the long run these electric trucks work out cheaper and are environment friendly too.

The government should focus more on railroad. Most times, the infrastructures are already present, but they are not used to their maximum capacity (or cannot be used because they don't have the facilities such as cargo transbording equipment or storage facilities).

[expert4knowledge]

A general thumb rule is that you should invest in upstream oil companies when the crude price is increasing. When the crude price is decreasing then it is advisable to invest in downstream companiesOn papers, it looks good Investment opportunity but on the ground there is NO Long term growth story in these companies.

This switching from down stream to upstream and vice versa does not seems good investment since you need to accept lots of risks when doing such switching.

[botany]

A general thumb rule is that you should invest in upstream oil companies when the crude price is increasing. When the crude price is decreasing then it is advisable to invest in downstream companiesOn papers, it looks good Investment opportunity but on the ground there is NO Long term growth story in these companies.

This switching from down stream to upstream and vice versa does not seems good investment since you need to accept lots of risks when doing such switching.

It is not investment advice, it is a trading strategy.
A strategy can be framed based on how different companies in the value chain react to the boom-bust cycle.

[jaysabi]

http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/saudis-lower-oil-price-to-asia-most-in-10-months-in-sign-of-glut/ar-BBv4hEL

Saudis Lower Oil Price to Asia Most in 10 Months in Sign of Glut

• State-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. said Sunday it will sell cargoes of Arab Light in September at $1.10 a barrel below Asia’s regional benchmark.
• Aramco’s pricing cut is part of a “market share battle” for Asian customers, particularly with OPEC rival Iran which is ramping up crude exports after sanctions eased in January
• Pricing for Light and Extra Light grades for U.S. clients was cut, by 20 cents and 40 cents, respectively, while the Medium and Heavy grades were unchanged.

[Tanic]

Investment in oil doesn't seem so popular now. Prices for oil are falling. And it's really hurts the budget of those countries that live mostly from sales of oil.

[Barnabe]

Investment in oil doesn't seem so popular now. Prices for oil are falling. And it's really hurts the budget of those countries that live mostly from sales of oil.

Only the ones with more expensive oil (in extraction) will suffer, like venezuela (off-shore) or USA (fracking). Saudis will only get slightly less revenue for a few years, but they'll be ok.

[jaysabi]

"A few years" might be optimistic. Iran's sanctions have been lifted, so that's a lot of new oil coming on the market. Saudi's are slashing prices to maintain market share, but I don't see any reason to believe this is just a temporary circumstance and not the new normal.

[groll]

When someone posted this the oil is still cheap now it goes up to 460 plus.  Then after the Brexit the price of oil since the UK exit the European Union goes down and falls into 44 I think.  At first I thought it will goes up as there will be more crises but it turns out that it that its price goes down.  The supply became abundant.  You cannot predict the price of the oil as of this time.

[tyz]

Agree. I was very optimistic for the price over the last few months. I was sure we will not see a price less than $50 again. But now, it seems there is much more oil available in stocks and on the market than I thought. $30-35 are possible again.

"A few years" might be optimistic. Iran's sanctions have been lifted, so that's a lot of new oil coming on the market. Saudi's are slashing prices to maintain market share, but I don't see any reason to believe this is just a temporary circumstance and not the new normal.

[deisik]

Agree. I was very optimistic for the price over the last few months. I was sure we will not see a price less than $50 again. But now, it seems there is much more oil available in stocks and on the market than I thought. $30-35 are possible again

That's exactly what I had been telling when the price was on the rise in April and May...

I've heard rumors that American shale oil producers are actively hedging their future production right now...

Let's wait and see if oil doesn't collapse back to lower 30s

[valta4065]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

[valta4065]

Totally agree! With electric grids, trucks could only drive on streets with such a facility. To rig only the main streets and highways with electric grid will cost billions. Remember, even the infrastructure of electric grids for common use cases like households is in a bad shape in most parts of the world.

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Well such electric grids were built for trains. Why not for trucks?

[deisik]

Totally agree! With electric grids, trucks could only drive on streets with such a facility. To rig only the main streets and highways with electric grid will cost billions. Remember, even the infrastructure of electric grids for common use cases like households is in a bad shape in most parts of the world.

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Well such electric grids were built for trains. Why not for trucks?

Trucks are supposed to solve "the last mile problem", that is, to reach where even demons fear to tread, so to speak

[valta4065]

Totally agree! With electric grids, trucks could only drive on streets with such a facility. To rig only the main streets and highways with electric grid will cost billions. Remember, even the infrastructure of electric grids for common use cases like households is in a bad shape in most parts of the world.

The electric grid on trucks  I would never think of this. But I think it's a silly idea. The advantage of trucks is that they can go everywhere. If you need infrastructure, it's better to simply use railroad.

Well such electric grids were built for trains. Why not for trucks?

Trucks are supposed to solve "the last mile problem", that is, to reach where even demons fear to tread, so to speak

Oh of course for those places it's not going to happen...
But most trucks go through whole europe to transport things, so in this case I don't see why we couldn't so a European electric grid ^^

[Sithara007]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

By 2020 or 2025, scientists will be able to create artificial or synthetic crude oil from cheap raw materials. So natural crude won't last up to 2030.

[mindrust]

Oil is done.

Bad times are on the horizon for Arab dudes. Too sad that they won't be able to drive any golden Range Rover's anymore.

Electric cars will rule the world. While that happens oil prices can get so low, so low that it may look like its free. (Like 10$) Even after that happened, nobody will buy oil cars anymore because people are gotten sick of Arabs and they won't make the same mistake again.

[deisik]

Peak of production is set at 2030, so price rise shouldn't be that big before this period.

By 2020 or 2025, scientists will be able to create artificial or synthetic crude oil from cheap raw materials. So natural crude won't last up to 2030.

What's the purpose of creating synthetic crude oil if you can make the products which are further processed from oil directly? For example, gasoline can be produced from coal (the Bergius process)...

Though it hasn't been economical so far (viable only in the case of a long-lasting shortage in oil supplies)