On 25th Dec 2015, 3 Month Futures Contracts on OKCoin expire (huge market btw).
Word has it, that 'they' have a vested interest in holding Bitcoin in and around this range until this date, at which point 'they' cash in, cash out, and then short Bitcoin. Until then, expect BTC to be full of nasty choppiness, with all manner of misleading signals and market structure to sucker punch n00b traders but ultimately the experienced and shrewd trader (and that certainly isn't me) is expecting a correction at least down to the 30 ema and/or the 38.2% retracement for the whole rally (so around $400). Whatever happens, bound to be a bounce around here, but if it doesn't hold, then it will be the $360 zone down at the 61.8% retracement, which just so happens to be what Smart Money would refer to has the 'wholesale' reload zone. Right now, we are in the 'retail' zone. This is where Smart Money sells 'overvalued' BTC to n00bs....and like I say, much shrewder punters than me reckon we will hang around here until the 3 Month Future contracts turnover (in 3 days time), and then after that.....DOWN!
I am long term bullish on Bitcoin, but Bitcoin has changed. We now have margin trading, ability to short, and a large and liquid BTC futures market on top of that, with yet more leveraged trading. Unlike in the days of Gox and Willy bot, when Bitcoin whales still largely consisted of 'dumb money' (i.e. tech nerds holding all the BTC as opposed to pro traders), I think in the next bull rise, we can expect to see a shit ton more up and down volatility as the pro trader whales take market down into their wholesale reload zones, before ramping it up into their retail cash out zones. This is how Smart Money takes money from the market. 'They' aint going to just let this rise and rise unabated (with the odd panic flash sell off) like in previous bull runs.
Go long now at your own peril. Even attempt to trade swings now at your own peril. Since I returned here, I have noticed that the one member of this site who seems to be well on the money (without ever providing any TA for his projections and forecasts) is Morecoin Freeman. He turned bear after $420 (yeah, BTC went up to $470, but so what). He said, 'see ya all in 2016'. Perhaps he is mindful of this pending 3 Months Future contract turnover and the overstretched nature of the market?
Finally something reasonable and backed by some technical arguments in a sea of 'to da moon' posts.
I also see quite a lot of support levels in the cluster between $350 and $400 and I expect this area to be tested in the upcoming weeks with a positive outcome.
The only question to me is how deep we go below $400, $360 would be already a very reasonable correction, I expect to have keen buyers already at around $380.
