$10 Reward for answering some questions

[jonathanuno]

I'll be giving $10 through paypal for a thought out/clear answer. Maybe more. Don't be a smartass, I just want answers.

My friend and I have gotten interested in bitcoin mining. We're noobs, but at least we've read the documentation and other stuff, so we have a basic idea of how it works. We also have money.

We're looking to buy dedicated mining hardware

1) Is buying an ASIC stupid? Why or why not?

2) How fucked will the economy be in early-mid 2013 when FPGAs and ASICs become more widespread? Will investing in mining hardware even be profitable?

3) How would my friend and I go about sharing the bitcoins we've mined with each other? Can the same wallet/address reside on multiple machines, or will I have to send coins to my friend's address? Would an online wallet be good for us?

5) How often should we cash out, as in sell our btc? I understand the longer you hold on to btc, the more "value" it will have, but is it really worth waiting long?

7) Right now we're looking at the BitForce 'Little' Single SC (30 Gh/s for $649 @ http://www.butterflylabs.com/pre-order-form-bitforce-little-single-sc/) and the bASIC NextGen Bitcoin Miner (36 Gh/s for $599 @ https://www.bitcoinasic.net/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=50). Which one should we get?

Any other tips/thoughts?

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[Garr255]

I'll be giving $10 through paypal for a thought out/clear answer. Maybe more. Don't be a smartass, I just want answers.

My friend and I have gotten interested in bitcoin mining. We're noobs, but at least we've read the documentation and other stuff, so we have a basic idea of how it works. We also have money.

We're looking to buy dedicated mining hardware

1) Is buying an ASIC stupid? Why or why not?

2) How fucked will the economy be in early-mid 2013 when FPGAs and ASICs become more widespread? Will investing in mining hardware even be profitable?

3) How would my friend and I go about sharing the bitcoins we've mined with each other? Can the same wallet/address reside on multiple machines, or will I have to send coins to my friend's address? Would an online wallet be good for us?

5) How often should we cash out, as in sell our btc? I understand the longer you hold on to btc, the more "value" it will have, but is it really worth waiting long?

7) Right now we're looking at the BitForce 'Little' Single SC (30 Gh/s for $649 @ http://www.butterflylabs.com/pre-order-form-bitforce-little-single-sc/) and the bASIC NextGen Bitcoin Miner (36 Gh/s for $599 @ https://www.bitcoinasic.net/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=50). Which one should we get?

Any other tips/thoughts?

1) No. ASIC mining will be the way to go when they are actually released, which will likely be the first bit of 2013.

2) Buying an ASIC then will likely be comparable to buying a GPU rig a few months ago.

3) You could use the same wallet.dat, but it would be easier to just send the coins to your friend's account every so often. I advise keeping your coins off of third party services, and only use the clients found at bitcoin.org

5) I would advise against selling bitcoins mined, because the more widely used it is, the more it will be worth. Perhaps sell whatever your initial investment was after earning that much back, but I would definitely keep whatever you can in btc.

7) To my knowledge, neither has shown more proof of a working ASIC over the other. Read the forums and talk to the companies, then go with your gut. It is very likely that they will both deliver, it is just a matter of when.

Tips appreciated 1Garr2555P4oiAaLQqXkcdAKGg4SMt3RZS
If you don't have any coins yet, I'll accept you closing your paypal account as a tip

Cheers,
Garrett

Edit: I should also mention that investing in mining operations managed by other people is an excellent route for a multitude of reasons. I run Cognitive.

Edit2: Actually donate to wikipedia if you only have paypal... http://wikimediafoundation.org/wiki/Donate

[DannyHamilton]

I'll be giving $10 through paypal for a thought out/clear answer. Maybe more. Don't be a smartass, I just want answers.

My friend and I have gotten interested in bitcoin mining. We're noobs, but at least we've read the documentation and other stuff, so we have a basic idea of how it works. We also have money.

We're looking to buy dedicated mining hardware

1) Is buying an ASIC stupid? Why or why not?

Possibly.  There are many variables that should go into this decision.  One of the most important is "How much does your electricity cost?"  Since ASIC don't actually exist yet, it is VERY DIFFICULT to predict what the payoff is likely to be.  If bitcoin were to drop in exchange value significantly, then purchasing ASIC could be stupid.  Depending on just how quickly the difficulty increases once ASIC are available, and how high the difficulty gets, purchasing ASIC could be stupid.  If the companies claiming to offer ASIC turn out to be scamming and not actually have any chance of providing real ASIC in the next year, then sending an ASIC company money would be stupid.  On the other hand, if the ASIC companies legitimately have ASIC to deliver soon, and the difficulty doesn't increase too fast or too high, and the bitcoin exchange value stabilizes or continues to rise, then purchasing ASIC could be a VERY profitable venture.

2) How fucked will the economy be in early-mid 2013 when FPGAs and ASICs become more widespread? Will investing in mining hardware even be profitable?

It is very difficult to predict exactly what "the economy" will do in the future.  It depends on what the various governments in the world choose to do over the next few months.  It depends on consumer optimism, it depends on weather patterns and other natural disasters.  There is a reasonable chance that investing in ASIC mining hardware could be profitable, but there are no guarantees.

3) How would my friend and I go about sharing the bitcoins we've mined with each other? Can the same wallet/address reside on multiple machines, or will I have to send coins to my friend's address? Would an online wallet be good for us?

I expect that multiple machines will be able to be configured to pay out to the same address.  I'd suggest that you create a "mining wallet" that has the address (or addresses) that the mining machines pay out to, and then on some regular basis send half the bitcoins mined to your personal wallet and half to your friend's wallet.  It just seems cleaner to keep your spending wallets and your mining wallet separated like that, though I suppose it isn't necessary.

5) How often should we cash out, as in sell our btc? I understand the longer you hold on to btc, the more "value" it will have, but is it really worth waiting long?

What happened to number 4?

Bitcoin is a currency, and there is a chance that it could gain widespread mainstream use in the next few years to a decade.  If that happens, you'll see the exchange value skyrocket.  Hundreds of dollars or more per bitcoin isn't an unreasonable expectation if that happens.  Bitcoin is also new and experimental.  There is a chance that it could die out and collapse completely.  If that happens, you'll see the exchange value drop to hundreds of bitcoins (or more) per dollar.  You'll have to decide how much risk you are willing to accept and how much profit potential you want.

7) Right now we're looking at the BitForce 'Little' Single SC (30 Gh/s for $649 @ http://www.butterflylabs.com/pre-order-form-bitforce-little-single-sc/) and the bASIC NextGen Bitcoin Miner (36 Gh/s for $599 @ https://www.bitcoinasic.net/index.php?route=product/product&product_id=50). Which one should we get?

What happened to number 6?

Neither actually exists yet, I'd suggest getting whichever comes to market first.  From what I've heard, the BitForce is looking like it will be first to market, but that could change at any time.

[jonathanuno]

Thanks from the prompt replies.

I have .00112 btc right now so I'd prefer to reward DannyHamilton through paypal. You can PM me your email and I'll send over 5 bucks now, and another 5 if nobody else really answers. And Garr255, I'm trying. Really.

I had a question 4 and 6 that I answered myself trough additional research. I guess I forgot to renumber.

[DannyHamilton]

Would an online wallet be good for us?

Oops. Sorry, I forgot to answer this one.

In general, I don't trust most online wallets yet in terms of security.  Of all of them, blockchain.info seems to be one of the most secure, but if you are going to invest the time and money necessary to get a profitable mining operation up and running, I'd suggest learning how to use Armory and setting up a nice secure offline wallet to keep your bitcoins secure, especially if you are planning on holding most of your bitcoins for the long term.  Perhaps even learn how to set up a paper wallet, and secure that.

[DannyHamilton]

. . . I'd prefer to reward DannyHamilton through paypal. You can PM me your email and I'll send over 5 bucks now, and another 5 if nobody else really answers . . .

I really don't need the $10, and I enjoy educating people about bitcoin and helping them learn.  Go ahead and keep the cash, and instead "pay it forward".  Meaning, the next time you have an option to help someone out (even if it inconveniences you a bit) or leave them to deal with a situation on their own, take the time to help them.  It makes the world a better place for all of us, it costs you almost nothing, and it's worth a lot more than $10.

Feel free to ask any more questions that you may come up with as you start to learn more about Bitcoin and mining.  That is why this forum is here.

[Garr255]

I really don't need the $10, and I enjoy educating people about bitcoin and helping them learn.  Go ahead and keep the cash, and instead "pay it forward".  Meaning, the next time you have an option to help someone out (even if it inconveniences you a bit) or leave them to deal with a situation on their own, take the time to help them.  It makes the world a better place for all of us, it costs you almost nothing, and it's worth a lot more than $10.

+1

[bitcoinroad]

No offense to your question, I'm just being a realist...and that's uncommon for me.

But it won't be a matter of "getting" ASIC anytime soon.  They are so backed up and don't want to tell anyone.  It'll be February before the first batch of the first round of preorders....not counting that there were more than just one round of presells.
There are guys selling their places in line for butterfly labs asic product.  You can find the 800 m/hash all day long if search the bowels of the internet.  or www.bitmit.com

Dude, its a grim road for mining.  And it really depends on the amount of money you can/want to spend.  

If Grandma just croaked and gave you a couple of thousand and you don't have anything else to spend it on, go for it! I would.

Here's what I'm waiting for:
Someone that bought their ASIC just to resell that doesn't even care about mining.  Because that's where you will find one.  Might as well as be Charlie with the lucky golden ticket.

If someone just gave you $1,299 and you had no idea what to do with it then it would be worth it, because over a period of several months you would make your money back that you spent and then you would start collecting.

Hypothetically:

Bitcoin difficulty 6000000
Bitcoins per Block (BTC/block) 25
Conversion rate (USD/BTC) 6.00
Hash rate (MHash/s) 60,000
Electricity rate (USD/kWh) .15
Power consumption (W) 100
Time frame (months) 12
Cost of mining hardware (USD) 1,299
Profitability decline per year
.61

At the above conditions: * NOTE ***I increased BTC Difficulty by double, decreased the Conversion by HALF if the BTC conversion flops ***


Coins per 24h at these conditions   BTC5.0291
Power cost per 24h   0.36 USD
Revenue per day   30.17 USD
Less power costs   29.81 USD
System efficiency   600.00 MH/s/W
Mining Factor 100 at the end of the time frame   0.03 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Average Mining Factor 100   0.04 USD/24h@100MHash/s
Power cost per time frame   131.49 USD
Revenue per time frame   8695.86 USD
Less power costs   8564.37 USD

all done/found on www.bitcoinx.com

As you can see, if you get your 60 gh/s miner "TOMORROW", you could make your return back in 45 DAYS! and by the end of the year you could make almost 8,700 bucks.....IF:   ***IF***

(hear comes the bad news)
• Conditions stayed that way all the time.
• IF YOU COULD GET YOUR ASIC.

and that's really it.  everything else with bitcoin is kosher.  the only thing that is holding back people with wild dreams of making a ton of money is that damned piece of machinery which was posted as november release.......then "late" november, then december.........

I bet you your BTC.7337 you don't see this till FEB if not later.

Now this is not me hating on butterfly labs. Because quite honestly I would LOVE to see this product hit the streets and me purchase one. But when you have 3+ rounds ( i don't know exact numbers ) of "PRE" Sells and you push a product back multiple times, it's likely they're pushing it back not just 1 month but 3 or 4.  

It's a terrible cock tease with the best lap dance ever with a bitch you can't touch.  They can show you the goods and the goods are GREAT! But you have to go home at the end of the night.

Note to being in business: "Don't promise empty promises." This is why I did not Pre-Order.

Again not hating on BFL.


I heart bitcoin.

www.bitcoinroad.com

[jonathanuno]

This is a great community. Thanks for the help guys.

So the tl;dr of all this is that nobody really knows what ASICs will do. We all just have to wait and see?

On a side note, here's my "strategy":
I know that BFL will give you a full refund between the time you pay and when your order ships if you decide to cancel. Assuming I ordered today, my batch wouldn't ship until say, mid February, when the first batch of ASICs has (hopefully) already been delivered and running for a couple weeks. If the bitcoin economy looks too grim by January or early February, I still have the chance to cancel my order.

Is this sound logic?

[bitcoinroad]

Oh dude.....

FEB will be the "1st ROUND" of PRE SELLS.....

THERE WHERE 3 or 4 ROUNDS......(that's where my dreams got crushed also)

There has been many complaints about this.

As far as what the asic will produce, i don't doubt there numbers at all.


You're welcome.  It's a good community to be in.

[jonathanuno]

I think you meant bitmit.net in your first post? bitmit.com goes to a site with software for the elderly...

[DannyHamilton]

This is a great community. Thanks for the help guys.

So the tl;dr of all this is that nobody really knows what ASICs will do. We all just have to wait and see?

On a side note, here's my "strategy":
I know that BFL will give you a full refund between the time you pay and when your order ships if you decide to cancel. Assuming I ordered today, my batch wouldn't ship until say, mid February, when the first batch of ASICs has (hopefully) already been delivered and running for a couple weeks. If the bitcoin economy looks too grim by January or early February, I still have the chance to cancel my order.

Is this sound logic?

It's probably not a bad way to go.  Also, if the ASIC market is tight, and there are people with access to cheaper electricity that want ASIC and can't get enough of them you could go ahead with your order and then turn around and sell it for a slight profit to someone who wants/needs it (such as Mr. bitcoinroad)

. . .Here's what I'm waiting for:
Someone that bought their ASIC just to resell that doesn't even care about mining . . .

On the other hand, if for some reason the first batch of ASIC aren't delivered before July, and you have access to reasonably cheap electricity, it might be more profitable to pick up some FPGA right away and be mining for the next 7 months.

Just keep in mind that mining isn't a "sure thing".  It could turn out to be quite profitable for you, especially if you have access to relatively cheap electricity, but even after you've purchased the equipment and started mining, changes could occur that could suddenly eliminate your profitability.  There could be a sudden flood of ultra high hash rate devices that could create a difficulty beyond your ability to generate profit.  The exchange rate could collapse and never recover. You could run into equipment failures that could get in the way of your profitability.  Your electricity costs could suddenly increase substantially.  This is a very competitive field and those with a competitive advantage (such as cheap electricity) will have the best chance at success.

[jonathanuno]

Electricity is essentially free for me. Does that change my situation any?

[bitcoinroad]

I think you meant bitmit.net in your first post? bitmit.com goes to a site with software for the elderly...

oops, my bad man. you're right.

www.bitmit.net

[mccorvic]

Electricity is essentially free for me. Does that change my situation any?

Sorta.  Though ASCI is supposed to be highly cost effective in that regard so shouldn't make that big an impact on your numbers.

If I had $1,299 to spend on bitcoin related ventures I'd either just straight up invest in BTC and wait until value goes up or invest in your own "company" providing a good/service whatever. 

[bitcoinroad]

This is a great community. Thanks for the help guys.

So the tl;dr of all this is that nobody really knows what ASICs will do. We all just have to wait and see?

On a side note, here's my "strategy":
I know that BFL will give you a full refund between the time you pay and when your order ships if you decide to cancel. Assuming I ordered today, my batch wouldn't ship until say, mid February, when the first batch of ASICs has (hopefully) already been delivered and running for a couple weeks. If the bitcoin economy looks too grim by January or early February, I still have the chance to cancel my order.

Is this sound logic?

It's probably not a bad way to go.  Also, if the ASIC market is tight, and there are people with access to cheaper electricity that want ASIC and can't get enough of them you could go ahead with your order and then turn around and sell it for a slight profit to someone who wants/needs it (such as Mr. bitcoinroad)

BINGO!

. . .Here's what I'm waiting for:
Someone that bought their ASIC just to resell that doesn't even care about mining . . .

On the other hand, if for some reason the first batch of ASIC aren't delivered before July, and you have access to reasonably cheap electricity, it might be more profitable to pick up some FPGA right away and be mining for the next 7 months.

Just keep in mind that mining isn't a "sure thing".  It could turn out to be quite profitable for you, especially if you have access to relatively cheap electricity, but even after you've purchased the equipment and started mining, changes could occur that could suddenly eliminate your profitability.  There could be a sudden flood of ultra high hash rate devices that could create a difficulty beyond your ability to generate profit.  The exchange rate could collapse and never recover. You could run into equipment failures that could get in the way of your profitability.  Your electricity costs could suddenly increase substantially.  This is a very competitive field and those with a competitive advantage (such as cheap electricity) will have the best chance at success.

absoluetly correct, you'll have to keep your eyes peeled and ears to the ground for the asic.  and that's my biggest concern...is the flood of equipment raising the difficulty substanitally, enough to screw the mining all to fuck.  but that's kind of the risk of spending the dough on the gear.

and I agree.....I'll tip you myself if you close your paypal as well.  Decentralized is the way to go.  Every week I invest $20/$40 of my paycheck from my business and my second job to bitcoins to pay people with BTC.  just to spread it.  

I give away BTC on my site....but I'm low right now, so I had to close FREE BTC for the time being.  

again, my site is www.bitcoinroad.com

My name is Adam Bunger, that is my real name and my facebook is: www.facebook.com/theadambunger, I run a site where everyday people can buy bitcoin with their debit/credit cards or Dwolla Accounts.  I started this site to increase the use of bitcoin on the internet and in my city.  I have labeled myself as a bitcoin broker for the people, I collect a total commission of .05 BTC off of any transaction.  I save people the hassle of setting up an exchange account.  No account is necessary with me.

Thanks guys for your awesome input!!!

[DannyHamilton]

Electricity is essentially free for me. Does that change my situation any?

If this is true, and remains true, then you have a competitive advantage that will improve your chances of mining profitably.  If I plug in devices that run at 100 Watts and run them 24 hours a day at an electricity rate of 0.15 per kWh, I'm looking at nearly $11 per month in electricity.  That means I need to earn more than $11 worth of bitcoin per device per month to turn a profit.  If I'm earning $10 worth of bitcoin per month per device, then I might as well just shut them down and use my electricity money to purchase the bitcoins at an exchange.  That way I'll at least get $11 worth of bitcoins for each of my $11 instead of $10 dollars worth (or less).  On the other hand if you are running 10 of these 100 watt devices and have free electricity, you can continue to run them when they earn $10 (or less) worth of bitcoin per month per device and get the $100 (or less) worth of bitcoins without any additional expense.  An exchange won't give you bitcoins cheaper than free.

Of course, unless you have your own solar panels or windmill and are already producing extra capacity, someone must be paying for that electricity you are using.  If their costs increase by $100 per month because of your activities, they may come looking for you to compensate them a bit.

[jonathanuno]

Electricity is essentially free for me. Does that change my situation any?

If this is true, and remains true, then you have a competitive advantage that will improve your chances of mining profitably.  If I plug in devices that run at 100 Watts and run them 24 hours a day at an electricity rate of 0.15 per kWh, I'm looking at nearly $11 per month in electricity.  That means I need to earn more than $11 worth of bitcoin per device per month to turn a profit.  If I'm earning $10 worth of bitcoin per month per device, then I might as well just shut them down and use my electricity money to purchase the bitcoins at an exchange.  That way I'll at least get $11 worth of bitcoins for each of my $11 instead of $10 dollars worth (or less).  On the other hand if you are running 10 of these 100 watt devices and have free electricity, you can continue to run them when they earn $10 (or less) worth of bitcoin per month per device and get the $100 (or less) worth of bitcoins without any additional expense.  An exchange won't give you bitcoins cheaper than free.

Of course, unless you have your own solar panels or windmill and are already producing extra capacity, someone must be paying for that electricity you are using.  If their costs increase by $100 per month because of your activities, they may come looking for you to compensate them a bit.

Someone is paying for it. It just isn't/never will be me.

And all the models assume I leave my hardware on 24/7. Isn't there a risk of my gear overheating or simply wearing out?

[mccorvic]

Someone is paying for it. It just isn't/never will be me.

And all the models assume I leave my hardware on 24/7. Isn't there a risk of my gear overheating or simply wearing out?

There's always that risk, but if you keep it properly cool I imagine you should be ok? I have a single GPU running 24/7 for over a year now and it's just chugging along. It doesn't make me much and I'm mining at a loss, but it's just nice being apart of it all

Of course, since the ASIC products aren't out yet we can't test their durability. Who knows, they may suffer from their own ROD syndrome ala Xbox 360.

[DannyHamilton]

With GPUs overheating is a significant risk and people go to a lot of effort to keep their rigs cool.

I'm not sure about FPGAs but my understanding is that heat is still a pretty significant risk, and cooling efforts should be considered part of your setup.

In theory, ASIC should be a low enough wattage and efficient enough to safely dissipate waste heat through a heat sink built into the device.  It won't surprise me if the ASIC suppliers include a fan in their devices to keep ambient air flowing over the heat sink.  Depending on their design, it is possible that a failed fan could lead to an overheated and damaged/destroyed device.  I'd hope that a fan failure would be covered under some sort of warranty for at least the first month or three, but I haven't looked into it.

If you are looking into FPGAs you'll need to consider the cost of maintaining the cooling gear as a part of operational costs.  Shutting off the equipment will reduce your production rate eating into your profits, repairing/replacing cooling equipment is an expense that will eat into your profits.