|
December 31, 2012, 09:35:35 PM |
|
GDP is actually quite useless IMO, even not taking into account arguments that an economy that "produces" less may still be better because it may have much more leisure time or non-monetary activity. Once you think about it, the reason why is quite obvious. Over the very long term, where busts and booms and structural shifts become irrelevant, what does the GDP ultimately track? The answer is simple: inflation. If you take the modern economy, and substitute computers and high-tech biomedical devices and all our other 21st century goodies with all their 18th century equivalents, chances are the GDP will still be something close to the exact same $15 trillion - what is being traded for the money will simply change. But if you keep the modern economy and pass a law that doubles the money supply every year for ten years, by 2023 the GDP is going to be at least $15 quadrillion, if not rapidly approaching infinity.
GDP indexed to CPI is a start, although CPIs tend to be very easy to politicize. Direct quality of life indices (eg. health, happiness, education, leisure, square feet housing per person) also have their weaknesses - failing a direct quality of life index may simply reflect a difference in preferences rather than any actual weakness in the underlying economy. If people don't care about one of the above variables (eg. hard working culture, anti-intellectualism, urbanism vs suburbanism, Achilles' attitude to fame vs longevity), then the score within that group will be quite low even though the wealth may be there to make everything trivially available for anyone who wants it. Ultimately I don't think there is anything close to an index that can say for sure if an economy is doing "well" or not. Targeted statistical measures like money supply inflation, disease mortality rate, etc, are all very useful for those who care about those specific variables, but the more general you get the less valuable the numbers become.
|