What will BTC be worth in 12 months

[Frequency]

Also the more the banks only thinking about themselfs instead of there customers, Crisis in 2013 getting worst in most lands people feeling they get scammed by pensionfunds and bringging millions to waek countries, maybe the new weaponlaws in the US, al that will be in favor of the use and economie of BTC exactly what we need at the exact moment in time,
mark my words its not just the money making BTC,  it will get its use it,s made for...

[01BTC10]

This thread always remind me of this dude:

[psybits]

This thread always remind me of this dude:

Ha ha ha!

I'm pretty optimistic myself - no crystal ball required

[leominer]

I can rise upto 15$ - 17$..

[johnvolta]

it would be around 10 - 20$

[constitution]

BTC value will be over 30$+ by 12 months.. Mark my word!

[nobbynobbynoob]

Somewhere between $40 and $80 looks realistic, I think. Much more than that and it could be a bubble, who knows? Bitcoin is still officially in beta. Should a few "big boys" get involved with bitcoin investments, for any reason, expect the exchange rate to top $100 in no time at all, but that won't necessarily be this year.

[AndrewJ]

Between $30 and $50 per BTC in 12 months

[gb5692c]

I think $22-$25

[Chaz]

Not a chance that 1 Bitcoin is worth anywhere near 2/3's of an ounce of silver. Then again maybe it's silver that is grossly undervalued!

Surely you can't compare the value of something without taking into account how many units there are?  Now we know exactly how many bitcoins exist, but knowing how much gold and silver is out there is a little harder.

From my hunting online, these are the figures I have come up with:

	| Bitcoin	| Silver	| Gold
Units	| 10,717,175	| 500,000,000*	| 5,304,873,180*
Price ($US)	| $19.20	| $31.15	| $1660.80
Market Cap	| $205,769,760	| $15,575,000,000	| $8,810,333,377,344

* Troy ounces (above ground investment availability)

Bitcoin is worth:

1.321% of Silver
0.002% of Gold

or Bitcoins would be worth:

$1,453 if equal to Silver
$822,076 if equal to Gold

Please discuss if this is the right way to calculate the value of Bitcoin.

[bbit]

$100 even.

[Midnight Man]

lol at poll results. I think people say 20+ because they want it to be 20+ not because they think it will actually be 20+

I'm sure there's an element of that going on - but I would answer that myself anyway based on the last 12 month trend, the fact that it's already $16 or more, and scarcity of coins/effort of mining is going up.

On the basis of the above, I'd be hard pressed to see it not surpassing $20, and probably fairly soon!

[Got BTC]

$40-$50, it's just like gold. Limited supply, price will keep rising.

[BluePlanet]

Will only be as much as people are willing to give for it... They have no intrinsic value.

BUT if you can trade them for IRL goods this becomes another story, they will only boom if lots more of big online merchants start to accept them. Imagine Amazon or eBay although I doubt this will happen anytime soon...

[iammagicmike]

first post, glad i found this forum, there's a ton of good info here.

[wasntme]

I expect BC value to go down a bit. But as long as it useful it is going to stick around.

[DeathAndTaxes]

Not a chance that 1 Bitcoin is worth anywhere near 2/3's of an ounce of silver. Then again maybe it's silver that is grossly undervalued!

You do realize the nominal value of something is mostly irrelivent.  What matters is the aggregate.

For example imagine Satoshi had decided to make the total number of coins 2.1 billion and the intitial block reward 5000 BTC.  Everything being the same BTC might be trading at 1 BTC = ~$0.20.  Would that make it a better price.

Likewise today 1 ton of silver costs about $1,000,000 USD or 20,000 BTC.  Wow silver is really expensive huh?  20,000 BTC for silver?

I for one am amazed and depressed at how high Bitcoin has gone in the last two years. Depressed because I didn't buy a ton into it two years ago when it was trading at only about $1.

Well with simplistic thinking only in nominal terms I am totally surprised you undervalued it.   
BTW today 1 mBTC = ~$0.02.  You have a chance to get them while they are cheap.  Only 2 cents each an amazingly low price.

[liralen]

I've made about 30% on my initial btc just by starting when I did. Don't want to count on that, though.

[mintymark]

Chaz, and others, in my opinion this is NOT the correct way to value Bitcoin.

The price of Bitcoin, or Gold for that matter, depends on Supply and Demand, and on the Elasticity of these two things.

The Supply of Bitcoins comes from two places: mining, and people who have Bitcoins watching the price decide that the time is right to sell.
Of these people there are many different types: early adopters, investors who feel they have made their money and should take some profit, even investors
running scared as the price falls. The way the number of bitcoins on the market changes with price I call the elasticity.

The Demand for Bitcoins comes from many places, investors, traders etc. It too has some elasticity, perhaps not as much as the supply.
The Demand is affected by a couple of major things right now: the increased use of Bitcoin as a currency and the increased use of Bitcoin as an investment vehicle.
These are major major factors that are going to increase Bitcoin Demand in the next year.

The supply of Bitcoins from mining has recently halved: the reward went from 50 to 25 per block. This is very significant as it places the onus of supply squarely on the price.

We can be sure that mining aside,  Supply WILL equal Demand, because each Bitcoin bought is sold by someone. Those mined are a fixed amount per unit time, more or less and the Demand has reached a stage where it massively outstrips Bitcoins mined. (I ought to prove this as it would be easy to prove or disprove.)

My conclusion then is that the correct way to decide what price Bitcoin will reach in a year is to look at supply and demand and see how these are matched.

The answer is they are not. Demand is set to massively increase due to increased use as a currency and people using it as an investing instrument (and yes, people using it as a cheap way to transfer currency across the world.)  This Demand can only be satisfied if the price rises massively. So, I suggest that this is what will happen.

Demand will go up by a factor of 10 this year. I dont know exactly what the elasticity of Supply is, but I do know that Demand too will be fuelled by a continuously rising price.

This is of course crystal ball territory.  My Guess, $40 to $80 per bitcoin by the end of January 2014.

Why not more than $80?  Well at $80 someone who invests now has quadrupled their investment. Thats so good that they would be thinking sell the coins and run, so I think that in a year its not possible to have an upside of more than 3 or 4 times.  This selling would exert a downward pressure. It can happen, but not in a single year.

Thats my crystal ball gazing done.



 

[nobbynobbynoob]

Decent post, mintymark.

Yes, three to four times increase annually has looked like the new norm, but we need to take light of the fact that the BTC price has increased more than thousandfold within about three years. That's not to say it's going to repeat that over the next three, but growth of more than 300% pa is possible. That said, I tend to agree with your $40-$80 assessment.

bitcointip mintymark +BTC0,001