Yet another analyst :)

[lucif]

IMHO, too little time has passed for last wave 5 off $0 low to begin. I think we entered multi-month correction/consolidation.

Sub-wave 3 ($15.40 -> $9.7) of super-wave 3 ($1.99 -> $260) was consolidated for 4 months.

And you expect that $260 high will consolidate in such quick way?

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[smoothie]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

[arepo]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.

[Odalv]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.

$125 is next bottom

[Rampion]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

Man, if Smoothie is turning bearish is really time to get greedy and buy buy buy

Seriously, I'd expect a decline to at least $70ish - I don't think we will break $50, and if we do it will be only for a few moments. Anyhow, I prepared myself for this situation, meaning that I'm prepared and eager to buy all the way down.

There is a huge difference compared to 2011, and its that now everybody knows that Bitcoin is here to stay, and the point is when we will have the next "bubble cycle". Thus, I expect the bottom to be much higher compared to 2011 standards, when a lot of people really turned their back on BTC.

Come on guys, we are all just speculating about how cheap we can get our coins - everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

[Miz4r]

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

[Frozenlock]

I think that these "news" really had less impact than what most think.

[samson]

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

The current price is propped up by the 16,700 BTC bid 'wall' on $100, without that I'm pretty sure things would be very different right now.

[Rampion]

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

The current price is propped up by the 16,700 BTC bid 'wall' on $100, without that I'm pretty sure things would be very different right now.

ATM wall is at $110 and it's 22.67K coins - anyhow only aprox. 17K can be surely assumed to be from a single entity.

[MAbtc]

everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

So many of these comments..... so little basis.

[SAQ]

Is it really strange of me to believe that the latest 'crash' to $79 happened because of the lawsuit against MtGox and people speculating on that? And that the current recovery to $115 can be mostly attributed to the positive news from China? It's impossible to tell what would have happened without this news but you can be sure that with something as volatile as bitcoin good or bad news will have a pretty large speculative impact on the price. I wouldn't say that TA is completely useless but whenever any kind of news hits that has speculative value I would not keep staring blindly at the charts and your little wave patterns...

The crash started when it was at 160. Was that one - two weeks ago? There were a lot of bad news. Exchange accounts closing, DDosing, Silk Road shut down for a while.

Once we got down to 80 there simply were no more sellers left. Then we had the China news and that added some fuel.

[Rampion]

everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

So many of these comments..... so little basis.

Little basis? Just check how there's more and more people who is hearing about BTC and UNDERSTANDING it. There's still a decent media coverage on mainstream outlets, and 90% of it is positive, which is quite different from what we had in 2011. Then, a lot of real BTC economy is under construction, and easier and more convenient ways to buy BTC are on its way - this is crucial. Infrastructure is improving, true believers are still believing, and newcomers are starting to grasp BTC's true potential.

BTC is in pretty good shape, despite of the recent crash/correction. I think denying this is just foolish.

[smoothie]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

Man, if Smoothie is turning bearish is really time to get greedy and buy buy buy

Seriously, I'd expect a decline to at least $70ish - I don't think we will break $50, and if we do it will be only for a few moments. Anyhow, I prepared myself for this situation, meaning that I'm prepared and eager to buy all the way down.

There is a huge difference compared to 2011, and its that now everybody knows that Bitcoin is here to stay, and the point is when we will have the next "bubble cycle". Thus, I expect the bottom to be much higher compared to 2011 standards, when a lot of people really turned their back on BTC.

Come on guys, we are all just speculating about how cheap we can get our coins - everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

Consolidating =/= Bearish lol wow epic fail there haha

[Viceroy]

question for one and all.

based upon history of btc vs $USD (@gox) ... what is the largest swing in the following periods:

1 minute
5 minutes
15 minutes
30 minutes
60 minutes
120 minutes
180 minutes

anyone?

[ElectricMucus]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

Man, if Smoothie is turning bearish is really time to get greedy and buy buy buy

Seriously, I'd expect a decline to at least $70ish - I don't think we will break $50, and if we do it will be only for a few moments. Anyhow, I prepared myself for this situation, meaning that I'm prepared and eager to buy all the way down.

There is a huge difference compared to 2011, and its that now everybody knows that Bitcoin is here to stay, and the point is when we will have the next "bubble cycle". Thus, I expect the bottom to be much higher compared to 2011 standards, when a lot of people really turned their back on BTC.

Come on guys, we are all just speculating about how cheap we can get our coins - everything around BTC is REALLY bullish ATM, no matter how deep is the correction of the parabolic growth from $14 to $266 all the world have just witnessed.

Consolidating =/= Bearish lol wow epic fail there haha

Yeah that scenario is the only bullish one which does make sense. Think of last years pirate crunch.

[smoothie]

question for one and all.

based upon history of btc vs $USD (@gox) ... what is the largest swing in the following periods:

1 minute
5 minutes
15 minutes
30 minutes
60 minutes
120 minutes
180 minutes

anyone?

You can gather this info yourself by looking at the historical charts. Don't be lazy.

[molecular]

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

And because it shows correction from 50 low, the break will probably go down. 50 will be likely broken I think after few months.

with all these new chinese people getting into bitcoin...i disagree.

$50 was the bottom.

famous last words?

I liked you better as bear... was easier then to disagree with you ;|

[smoothie]

Lucif, I agree with the symmetrical triangle. But what makes you think it will break down and not up ?

It is much lower than 260 top, and break above 170 is very unlikely according to daily and weekly bollinger bands and standard deviations. So i conclude price will go sideways in 90-160 range forming triangle like that. It can develop up to end of June.

As long as triangle is closer to 50 low rather than 260 high, I conclude it shows the correction after 50 low, not the 260 high.

And because it shows correction from 50 low, the break will probably go down. 50 will be likely broken I think after few months.

with all these new chinese people getting into bitcoin...i disagree.

$50 was the bottom.

famous last words?

I liked you better as bear... was easier then to disagree with you ;|

LOL well suck it! 

[molecular]

i can see it consolidating around $90-$130 for months.

too much volatility for this. but short/mid term, we're poising break out of this triangle in 2-4 weeks, so we'll likely stay in that range until then. mid/long term, the range will probably be $50-$180 for 2-4 months.

2012 was an exceptionally stable year... consolidation after the devastation "buttcoin is dead bubble burst".

The recent crash was tame in comparison.

Therefore we will not consolidate $90-$130 for long... no calm late summer, at least I don't see it.

[Viceroy]

question for one and all.

based upon history of btc vs $USD (@gox) ... what is the largest swing in the following periods:

1 minute
5 minutes
15 minutes
30 minutes
60 minutes
120 minutes
180 minutes

anyone?

You can gather this info yourself by looking at the historical charts. Don't be lazy.

lol, I have no idea how to determine such from the data... which is why I asked.  anyone?