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Soepkip
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June 08, 2011, 08:52:48 AM
 #41


 If it goes down in shambles, thats ok too, because I'm ready for whatever it brings. I will not just stand by and watch something this amazing just pass me by. 

I think that's the best way to put this. I'm shooting myself in the face for not buying bitcoin like a month ago. It may well all be over tomorrow, but hey, there is a good chance BTC will grow huge.

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June 08, 2011, 09:19:23 AM
 #42

The biggest risk to bitcoin comes from the US government, which may criminalize and ban it. In fact I am pretty sure they will do that once it gets into their radar.

I'm 99% certain that your prediction will happen.  The Government hates competition, they love forcing you to use their counterfeit money.

However - and I am not joking when I say this - I CAN'T WAIT till it's illegal.  Because once it is, the mainstream will find out about it.. and THAT's when more people will really start using it, and after a brief panic-induced selling from wimps, the price will probably skyrocket.  Even though it wasn't money, that's essentially what happened with Napster, Bit Torrent, the whole p2p movement in general.  Once they make it illegal, that's when people will start using it.

Additionally, it's irrelevant what the USG does.  There are 200 countries in the world, the USA is one of them... that works out to 1/200th of the world.  In terms of population, roughly 300M out of roughly 6.7B.  That's just 4% of the people in the world.  What I'm saying is - when they make it illegal, nobody cares.  When other countries make it illegal, still nobody will care. People will just move to VPNs and alternative exchangers.  Life goes on.  Don't forget that the Government is there to serve US, not the other way around.  You are only a slave if you accept to be one.  You can be a free man if you decide to be one.
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June 08, 2011, 08:04:42 PM
 #43

However - and I am not joking when I say this - I CAN'T WAIT till it's illegal.  Because once it is, the mainstream will find out about it.. and THAT's when more people will really start using it, and after a brief panic-induced selling from wimps, the price will probably skyrocket.  Even though it wasn't money, that's essentially what happened with Napster, Bit Torrent, the whole p2p movement in general.  Once they make it illegal, that's when people will start using it.

I think the government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand they want the dollar to be the universal currency, and yet they keep on putting all these restrictions on how it can be used reducing its competitiveness. They must understand that they cannot have the dollar as a universal currency while restricting its usage. Their hands in the fight with bitcoin are pretty much tied, because the more they encumber the US dollar to fight Bitcoin, the more desirable Bitcoin becomes.

I also think that a ban on the US bank accounts of MtGox is imminent. And this will almost certainly crash the price of Bitcoin. However, as you say that will not destroy Bitcoin. In fact it will make it stronger. However, people that have invested all their savings into Bitcoins, and worse who have actually over-leveraged themselves to purchase Bitcoins, will no doubt get hurt badly.

When dealing with a risky asset like Bitcoin I think it is very important to diversify. Besides, there is no need to put all your savings into it - that's just pure greed. Even putting a small fraction of your savings into bitcoin can lead to great returns.
Durr
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June 08, 2011, 08:12:45 PM
 #44

The biggest risk to bitcoin comes from the US government, which may criminalize and ban it. In fact I am pretty sure they will do that once it gets into their radar.
However - and I am not joking when I say this - I CAN'T WAIT till it's illegal.  Because once it is, the mainstream will find out about it.. and THAT's when more people will really start using it, and after a brief panic-induced selling from wimps, the price will probably skyrocket.  Even though it wasn't money, that's essentially what happened with Napster, Bit Torrent, the whole p2p movement in general.  Once they make it illegal, that's when people will start using it.

Napster original concept actually totally disappeared and so was defeaten, didnt get stronger like you're saying. Similar to many things like Kazaa, Limewire, etc. They never recovered significantly after all the legal actions taken against them.
Same with Bit Torrent, it's pretty weak compared to its top some years ago. Torrents are long replaced by news groups etc. Thus it has not gotten stronger.

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MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 08:15:44 PM
 #45

The biggest risk to bitcoin comes from the US government, which may criminalize and ban it. In fact I am pretty sure they will do that once it gets into their radar.
However - and I am not joking when I say this - I CAN'T WAIT till it's illegal.  Because once it is, the mainstream will find out about it.. and THAT's when more people will really start using it, and after a brief panic-induced selling from wimps, the price will probably skyrocket.  Even though it wasn't money, that's essentially what happened with Napster, Bit Torrent, the whole p2p movement in general.  Once they make it illegal, that's when people will start using it.

Napster original concept actually totally disappeared and so was defeaten, didnt get stronger like you're saying. Similar to many things like Kazaa, Limewire, etc. They never recovered significantly after all the legal actions taken against them.
Same with Bit Torrent, it's pretty weak compared to its top some years ago. Torrents are long replaced by news groups etc. Thus it has not gotten stronger.

Your statements about Napster, etc are correct; because these were company driven technologies with centralized servers.  Your statements about Bittorrent are not.  Byte for byte, bittorrent now consumes more bandwidth worldwide than email.  Movies do tend to be big files.  "Torrents are long replaced by news groups etc."  LOL!

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
Durr
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June 08, 2011, 08:20:20 PM
 #46

Well I don't know about US but most hardcore Europe users moved away from torrents to news groups. And that's a fact

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goldcd
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June 08, 2011, 08:21:29 PM
 #47

The biggest issue facing bitcoin, is that there's nothing to stop a "bitcoin 2" from entering the market.
A lot of people here are mining, trading and we're all happy as Larry that the price is going through the roof.

The problem is that once mining difficulty hits a plateau, people start considering energy costs etc, then people will start to drift away from mining. Currently we're at the peak, GPUs sold out etc etc - but we're all still 'making money' and watching our stash rise in value.

Right, so what happens when that grinds to a halt? We all throw our GPUs away?
Just takes somebody to create something similar and we'll all rush off to get onto the "ground floor" of whatever's coming next. It'll probably crash and vanish without a trace, but tell me you don't think anybody else is going to try?

All economics are based on scarcity, bitcoins are 'scarce' - but only within the market of bitcoins. Currencies themselves aren't scarce.
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June 08, 2011, 08:34:52 PM
 #48

The biggest issue facing bitcoin, is that there's nothing to stop a "bitcoin 2" from entering the market.

Actually, there is.  It's called the "first to market" advantage.  It's why VHS beat out Betamax in the consumer marketplace even though everyone agreed that Betamax was both a superior format and at least as cheap to mass produce.  Anyone can try to replicate Bitcoin, but without a significant and obvious advantage to users, it's market uptake will never approach Bitcoin's.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
MoonShadow
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June 08, 2011, 08:37:20 PM
 #49

Well I don't know about US but most hardcore Europe users moved away from torrents to news groups. And that's a fact

Newgroups are old tech, that were re-adopted to accomodate torrents.  I can use either in my bittorrent client, but the only advantage that newsgroups have is that they aren't often trottled by ISP's.  Bittorrent can be trottled, even in the US, but this is only somewhat effective.  I get entire OS updates this way, and download entire netshows.

"The powers of financial capitalism had another far-reaching aim, nothing less than to create a world system of financial control in private hands able to dominate the political system of each country and the economy of the world as a whole. This system was to be controlled in a feudalist fashion by the central banks of the world acting in concert, by secret agreements arrived at in frequent meetings and conferences. The apex of the systems was to be the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, Switzerland, a private bank owned and controlled by the world's central banks which were themselves private corporations. Each central bank...sought to dominate its government by its ability to control Treasury loans, to manipulate foreign exchanges, to influence the level of economic activity in the country, and to influence cooperative politicians by subsequent economic rewards in the business world."

- Carroll Quigley, CFR member, mentor to Bill Clinton, from 'Tragedy And Hope'
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June 08, 2011, 08:42:58 PM
 #50

I also think that a ban on the US bank accounts of MtGox is imminent. And this will almost certainly crash the price of Bitcoin. However, as you say that will not destroy Bitcoin. In fact it will make it stronger. However, people that have invested all their savings into Bitcoins, and worse who have actually over-leveraged themselves to purchase Bitcoins, will no doubt get hurt badly.
Just keep in mind that I (and probably the vast majority of people who have thrown their savings into bitcoins) are in this for the long run. The shutdown of mtgox no doubt would leave a huge hole in bitcoins, but in the long run i see bitcoin recovering and moving far beyond.

The biggest issue facing bitcoin, is that there's nothing to stop a "bitcoin 2" from entering the market.
A lot of people here are mining, trading and we're all happy as Larry that the price is going through the roof.

You think that this competitor will just come out of the blue? it has taken bitcoin over 2 YEARS to get to where it is today. Infact there already are talks of new systems being developed such as ripple: http://forum.bitcoin.org/index.php?topic=3557.0 better yet, these systems just might merge to form an even better online currency.

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June 08, 2011, 09:39:36 PM
 #51

Just keep in mind that I (and probably the vast majority of people who have thrown their savings into bitcoins) are in this for the long run. The shutdown of mtgox no doubt would leave a huge hole in bitcoins, but in the long run i see bitcoin recovering and moving far beyond.
Yes, but there is a long time between now and the longrun. Meanwhile you have to eat and pay rent.
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June 08, 2011, 09:49:30 PM
 #52

Just keep in mind that I (and probably the vast majority of people who have thrown their savings into bitcoins) are in this for the long run. The shutdown of mtgox no doubt would leave a huge hole in bitcoins, but in the long run i see bitcoin recovering and moving far beyond.
Yes, but there is a long time between now and the longrun. Meanwhile you have to eat and pay rent.
I still have a job, so im not worried about rent and food

goldcd
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June 08, 2011, 10:45:17 PM
 #53

The biggest issue facing bitcoin, is that there's nothing to stop a "bitcoin 2" from entering the market.

Actually, there is.  It's called the "first to market" advantage.  It's why VHS beat out Betamax in the consumer marketplace even though everyone agreed that Betamax was both a superior format and at least as cheap to mass produce.  Anyone can try to replicate Bitcoin, but without a significant and obvious advantage to users, it's market uptake will never approach Bitcoin's.

VHS didn't win as they were 'first to market' - in fact the whole first to market thing isn't really that big a deal. Apple weren't first to market with MP3 players, smartphones, laptops etc. Google weren't the first online search engine. In fact if you pick pretty much any technology the first to market has vanished into history and is possibly only surviving as a name branded on a successors products.
Just look at the brands around you in your room - how many of them can you genuinely say were first to market?

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June 11, 2011, 03:02:11 PM
 #54

Stil feeling confident triforce?

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June 12, 2011, 07:18:35 AM
 #55

I was going to ask him the same thing.

I'll keep my politics out of your economics if you keep your economics out of my politics.

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June 12, 2011, 08:14:14 AM
 #56

Stil feeling confident triforce?
I was going to ask him the same thing.
I'm not going anywhere! The price can drop to pennies, I will still support bitcoin! I believe in the system and so I can look beyond the price. My only real concern would be the degradation of the network via hacking/glitches.

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June 12, 2011, 08:18:31 AM
 #57

Stil feeling confident triforce?
I was going to ask him the same thing.
I'm not going anywhere! The price can drop to pennies, I will still support bitcoin! I believe in the system and so I can look beyond the price. My only real concern would be the degradation of the network via hacking/glitches.
Which is impossible, as long as everyone is connecting with the same software.

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June 12, 2011, 08:25:08 AM
 #58

Stil feeling confident triforce?
I was going to ask him the same thing.
I'm not going anywhere! The price can drop to pennies, I will still support bitcoin! I believe in the system and so I can look beyond the price. My only real concern would be the degradation of the network via hacking/glitches.
Which is impossible, as long as everyone is connecting with the same software.
Not necessarily:
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Incidents
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Weaknesses

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June 13, 2011, 09:37:31 AM
 #59

I'm not going anywhere! The price can drop to pennies, I will still support bitcoin! I believe in the system and so I can look beyond the price. My only real concern would be the degradation of the network via hacking/glitches.

I admire your enthusiasm, but even you must have been quite scared to see BTC's value drop from $31 to $10 within 2 days.  If the price dropped to pennies I doubt you would still support BTCs.

I am a miner looking to get back my hardware investment as soon as possible, and I can't tolerate massive swings in price.  BTCs could be at $10 tomorrow once again.  I sell my BTCs as soon as I produce them to avoid risking holding the bag should the whole deal fall over.  This means I miss out on the potential gains from the difficulty rate going up.  You're the person who could make a lot of money on my mining by going long.  I wish you well and hope it's profitable if indeed you have converted all your money to BTCs.

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June 13, 2011, 04:51:24 PM
 #60

I'm not going anywhere! The price can drop to pennies, I will still support bitcoin! I believe in the system and so I can look beyond the price. My only real concern would be the degradation of the network via hacking/glitches.

I admire your enthusiasm, but even you must have been quite scared to see BTC's value drop from $31 to $10 within 2 days.  If the price dropped to pennies I doubt you would still support BTCs.

I am a miner looking to get back my hardware investment as soon as possible, and I can't tolerate massive swings in price.  BTCs could be at $10 tomorrow once again.  I sell my BTCs as soon as I produce them to avoid risking holding the bag should the whole deal fall over.  This means I miss out on the potential gains from the difficulty rate going up.  You're the person who could make a lot of money on my mining by going long.  I wish you well and hope it's profitable if indeed you have converted all your money to BTCs.

As long as the network is still secure and I keep seeing the massive effort being put into developing bitcoin, buying bitcoins for pennies is great sale! I'm not sticking with bitcoin because of what its doing today, I'm sticking with bitcoin because of the long term potential I see in it. If I was here for the quick bucks, yeah, i WOULD be scared. And yea, I just ordered parts for my first real mining rig.

by the way Cluster2k, how close are you to getting your mining gear paid off? how long did you think it would take?

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