The MatTheCat reverse indicator thread

[MatTheCat]

Hmm, Mat is long, those are basically the epitome of "weak hand" coins.  Now all we need is to print a bumper sticker that says, "If MatTheCat is long, what could go wrong?"

What will most likely go wrong, is that I will leave the trade on a scratch. My 'Ultimate FU Move' theory (beat up the bears and the bulls) will be wrong, Bitcoin will not take out the Local High, but instead will retrace 2/3rds of the way back up towards it, before putting in a bear M top, and then going right back down the way it came.

[1714038576]

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[1714038576]

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[bitebits]

and then going right back down the way it came.

When you see a seed battling and finally managing coming above ground, forming it's first leaves. Do you keep saying it is more likely to go back into the ground, or move up rapidly to the sun/moon?
We had the most nerve breaking part, now just enjoy watching it grow. Did you know that you can almost see a plant grow with the naked eye?

[Meuh6879]

Incoming $1600 $3200

-snip-

[r0ach]

I've changed the topic slightly to "The MatTheCat reverse indicator thread".  I feel this thread can become a full length documentary.

[afbitcoins]

Thought this was an interesting point of view, not specific to bitcoin but is relevant to bitcoin I think.

Don't watch markets too much - its all program trading
Submitted by gldslv on January 9, 2016 - 2:29am.

It must be tough playing markets using traditional trading techniques now a days.   Trading against algos is like playing chess with a computer.  It  moves 100 times faster and given enough market power can create any perception it wants to paint. All the manipulator has to do is tell the computer to move a stock/bond/index prices in a method that paints a image to the trader that becomes financially attractive.  Once the money is drawn in they can tell it to go in reverse and clean the house/gather the chips.  

Its not the old days, in today's world, perception is managed by a few money centers.  Its all algos based in painting an image  of market movements. Not reality.   'Falling knives', 'gap filling' are algo responses these days and not traditonal human traders (forget investing) performing the activity.  Trading algos do not take into account any long term investment data points that any reasonable human investor instantly understands..

Do the algos adjust/compensate trading patterns on this type of information? Its really hard to quantify and therefore hard to introduce to the algo:

1) Debt/gdp ratios and the rate of debt growth between sovereigns relative to a stable unit of account?

2) rapidly changing geo-political relationships. Can't quantify that until you see an earnings/pricing  hit somewhere.

3) The meaning of 'money versus a currency' as it pertains to human purchasing power? Which to humans, I would think, is really important.

4) Undefined black swan events like country X accepting the yuan for trading or better yet announcements that  include new markets to sell/buy goods and services, therefore impacting the  future earnings power  of corporations that do not participate in those markets.

Its important to get the trend right, the algos react to capital and trade movement but I'm convinced that if China attacked Japan on a Monday, human traders would hit the sell button, the markets would drop and by Thursday,  by controlling/manipulating  the  VIX and futures on the indexes,  the algos would gap fill right back to almost normal. This type of event is a trend influencer that only humans can quantitatively 'feel' the impact on future market conditions.  The algo's lack of understanding for these minor and not so minor non-quantitative events is why we are experiencing more and more shock and awe.

To me this is saying, trade on longer timescales. On day trading you will be cleaned out.

[MatTheCat]

When you see a seed battling and finally managing coming above ground, forming it's first leaves. Do you keep saying it is more likely to go back into the ground, or move up rapidly to the sun/moon?
We had the most nerve breaking part, now just enjoy watching it grow. Did you know that you can almost see a plant grow with the naked eye?

Bitcoin is not a plant. Bitcoin is a means of transferring wealth from dumb money to smart money. That means it has to ramp up and down. Plants don't do this. Worst analogy ever.

Thought this was an interesting point of view, not specific to bitcoin but is relevant to bitcoin I think.

Don't watch markets too much - its all program trading
Submitted by gldslv on January 9, 2016 - 2:29am.

It must be tough playing markets using traditional trading techniques now a days.   Trading against algos is like playing chess with a computer.  It  moves 100 times faster and given enough market power can create any perception it wants to paint. All the manipulator has to do is tell the computer to move a stock/bond/index prices in a method that paints a image to the trader that becomes financially attractive.  Once the money is drawn in they can tell it to go in reverse and clean the house/gather the chips.  

To me this is saying, trade on longer timescales. On day trading you will be cleaned out.

Excellent post. But on the otherhand, this is also why HFT markets such as Huobi respond to certain levels and fit into specific TA models so well.

What the post describes, is also pretty much my reasoning for my 'Everyone's a Loser' chart forecast. If what I project in my chart comes to fruition, the majority of market participants are going to lose money. Bears are going to have their Short Stops triggered. Bulls are going to start piling in on break of significant resistance, and the whales will be letting them bulls have all the $470+ Bitcoin that they can possibly carry, until retail buying pressure dries up, and the HFT bots are set into reverse mode.

Edit: 'Everyone's a Loser' trade idea abandoned. Someone has come to Stamp with a big bag of BTC to dump. When Stamp leads, it is always to the downside. Whether the whale doing the dumping had a 2K BTC sack, which he has already emptied, or a 5K sack, or a 20K BTC sack is irrelevant to me. Far too dangerous to trade at the moment.

[r0ach]

It's funny how everyone sees the market being entirely controlled by a "they", meaning exchange owners or random Chinese billionaire, when the gold market movements now look identical to the Bitcoin market movements.  From a flat line to a random, big vertical line, a stop, then another.

[MatTheCat]

It's funny how everyone sees the market being entirely controlled by a "they", meaning exchange owners or random Chinese billionaire, when the gold market movements now look identical to the Bitcoin market movements.  From a flat line to a random, big vertical line, a stop, then another.

...yet their are whole books devoted to the topic of how to spot and/or get on the right side of insider market actions?

The more the concentrated a stock or an asset is in just a few hands, the more likely the market is to be dictated by a 'they' and I think it is fairly common knowledge that a large proportion of Bitcoin is held by a relatively small number of hands.

[r0ach]

But you tend to act like Bitcoin is "poisoned" by manipulators and that other markets aren't.  It's pretty much the same wherever you go.  You're always going to be in one of the following three categories:

1)  Market Maker - can move markets

2)  Momentum Trader - make money riding on the back of whale trends

3)  Gambler - buys when there is no obvious trend

That's probably the biggest scam element of the stock market, is that there's a permanently, artificially manufactured uptrend due to continus QE since the beginning of time.  One might be able to make the claim that it's a conspiracy to make a forced corporatocracy since the majority of the time you're going to be on the positive side of momentum trade due to inflation (#2 in the list above).  Therefore, you're forced to hand your money over to make big corporations even bigger and powerful.  

The other side effect is that due to this artificial, mostly permanent, positive market indicator, there's too many people making money on the stock market when they shouldn't be.  Anything that's a zero sum game, which any currency is, since one man's trillionaire is another man's slave plantation owner via having monopoly over everything, should be far more risky to try and profit in or it's not a rational market.

The final conclusion is, if you believe that only big business/companies create things of value, then it looks like not only did the Ayn Randians of Atlas Shrugged win, but that system is actually forced upon you.  Companies need customers, and since this system is designed to fleece all the customers of everything eventually, either every customer becomes a part of some corporation themselves via stock ownership and/or employment, or the system collapses.  All resulting from the prime mover of inflation.

[r0ach]

Awaiting new MatTheMarginCalled reverse indicator

[abs350]

Guys guys guys.

Youre wasting your time with this. Seriously if you do this short term trading thing you can only lose.

Mathematically its obvious. Short term trading is about who has the most cheese. The more $$$$$ you have the more you can pump & dump and the more you make.  And the reverse.

Dont waste your time with this bull/bear. if you are a small guy you are gonna get crushed. No indicator can help you and it doesnt matter how long you spend watching bitcoinwisdom.com..... You are gonna get crushed by a whale.  So....... just buy and hold. We just had a massive correction over  the last few years and yet the price didnt go to zero. Thats how you know its a correction and still a bull. Otherwise it would have gone to zero already.

There's nothing else to know. Seriously.

Just buy and hold.  Dont give your money to the pump + dump professionals.  Don't play that game unless you know you are the whale. You can only lose.

You guys know the economic picture. You know people outside of these forums hate bitcoin. You know us believers are the enlightened few on the planet. You know the price is mega undervalued. Dont be a douche. Buy and hold. Dont play the short term game you cannot win.

PS. Roach you are a douche. At least MatTheCat gives his opinions. All u do is just insult people because you are losing money but you dont admit it. MatTheCat is a cool guy.

[MatTheCat]

Awaiting new MatTheMarginCalled reverse indicator

Yes...

Stop Called on my FUCKING LONG!

TWICE!

Once way down below on the Fuck You Move down to $352. And again on the Fuck You Move prior to the break out (actually, I stopped myself out here at scratch, due to bearish market signals...but point is, market lied to me yet again). I fucking hate this manipulated fucking bullshit cunt of a market.

But just so you know. Next major target for Bitcoin is $315 imo. Another probably Fuck You Move up to $435 notwithstanding, just to shake the public out of its short positions (same as they done with the publics long positions down below) before 'they' send her crashing back down, taking all the little piggies oinking for $500-$1000 Bitcoin, back down to the slaughterhouse.

If I take the short, and it turns out I am wrong and I get stopped as Bitcoin heads up to breach a major resistance, then so fuck. If I take the short, get stopped out in my sleep, just before Bitcoin crashes...then man....if that happens again, I am gonna need to kill someone.

[Searing]

Awaiting new MatTheMarginCalled reverse indicator

Yes...

Stop Called on my FUCKING LONG!

TWICE!

Once way down below on the Fuck You Move down to $352. And again on the Fuck You Move prior to the break out (actually, I stopped myself out here at scratch, due to bearish market signals...but point is, market lied to me yet again). I fucking hate this manipulated fucking bullshit cunt of a market.

But just so you know. Next major target for Bitcoin is $315 imo. Another probably Fuck You Move up to $435 notwithstanding, just to shake the public out of its short positions (same as they done with the publics long positions down below) before 'they' send her crashing back down, taking all the little piggies oinking for $500-$1000 Bitcoin, back down to the slaughterhouse.

If I take the short, and it turns out I am wrong and I get stopped as Bitcoin heads up to breach a major resistance, then so fuck. If I take the short, get stopped out in my sleep, just before Bitcoin crashes...then man....if that happens again, I am gonna need to kill someone.

This is why I simply mine an hold ...I may be an idiot (or it may be idiot proof) but don't need the drama...it either works or it don't work.

So far keeping score....BTC would have to dump to about 210 for me to be out equip and elec (mined since 2013 in 2013 knc jupiter 53 btc and now knc titan script miners...1 new 1 was used....at about 47 more btc equiv (if i moved ltc to btc today) for around 101 btc total or so?) and still mining on my (mostly) move it all from ltc to btc when the ratio is right

but anyway keeping score... BTC would have to dump to below 210 (if i lumped all the ltc into btc now) and LTC alone with what I have left ...with before halving most of it at about
1.80 or so I think

If I am right .....no issues...if I am wrong...well ..they have these nice 'beanie baby' support groups...I could join....mostly women ..hey I could get lucky...we'd have something in
common off the start

but trading makes me pucker up in all the wrong places..I'd always guess wrong (just saying)

but admire your efforts...and wish you the best of luck ...but..coward that I am watching from the sidelines

I look at it this way...I have invested in BTC equip the equiv of a Bass Boat ..if BTC and LTC and open crypto all goes to heck..well hell the Bass Boat sunk is how I'm gonna think of it

anyway how I keep score ...staying as far the fr*ck away from 'trading' as I can get ..I know my limitations

anyway best of luck ...braver man than I am....I have enough drama just playing 'hold the btc' game

[MatTheCat]

anyway how I keep score ...staying as far the fr*ck away from 'trading' as I can get ..I know my limitations

anyway best of luck ...braver man than I am....I have enough drama just playing 'hold the btc' game

I have only very recently started to make real attempts to stop tarding bitcoin and start trading it. Majority who 'trade', actually 'tard', and that is just the way it is.

I am generally scraping profits (recently), but am still very rough around the edges with regards to trading plans, set-ups, entries and exits, but am sharpening up all the time. The one big advantage I can easily see coming from learning to trade and understand markets, is when the time comes to get the fuck out of a market. I will be far more likely to recognise it than if I was just happily holding with the philosophy that 'it will either work or it won't'.

[sandiman]

Even if this indicator looks very serious, I am not sure I am ready to bet some money on a cat named mat

[Searing]

anyway how I keep score ...staying as far the fr*ck away from 'trading' as I can get ..I know my limitations

anyway best of luck ...braver man than I am....I have enough drama just playing 'hold the btc' game

I have only very recently started to make real attempts to stop tarding bitcoin and start trading it. Majority who 'trade', actually 'tard', and that is just the way it is.

I am generally scraping profits (recently), but am still very rough around the edges with regards to trading plans, set-ups, entries and exits, but am sharpening up all the time. The one big advantage I can easily see coming from learning to trade and understand markets, is when the time comes to get the fuck out of a market. I will be far more likely to recognise it than if I was just happily holding with the philosophy that 'it will either work or it won't'.

if it is time to get out of market...everyone will realize it at the same time imho ....won't matter ..we will all be 'screwed'

just my thoughts...if a 'slow bleed' I'd likely get most of my btc and/or ltc out (i hope)...but my expectation is 'if she goes tulips' the free fall will be such that it will blast past
my 210 floor anyway....so again...it works or it don't ..that's how i got into it ...that's probably how i will get out...on my feet or boots first

but admire your 'kutspa' ...me don't have the time to delve into this ...nor the 'angst' of learning such.... but if you 'succeed' it is more then likely we all will....so I wish you luck

[MatTheCat]

if it is time to get out of market...everyone will realize it at the same time imho ....won't matter ..we will all be 'screwed'

just my thoughts...if a 'slow bleed' I'd likely get most of my btc and/or ltc out (i hope)...but my expectation is 'if she goes tulips' the free fall will be such that it will blast past
my 210 floor anyway....so again...it works or it don't ..that's how i got into it ...that's probably how i will get out...on my feet or boots first

but admire your 'kutspa' ...me don't have the time to delve into this ...nor the 'angst' of learning such.... but if you 'succeed' it is more then likely we all will....so I wish you luck

au contraire!

When it is time to get the fuck out the market, everyone will doing the exact opposite. They will be piling in, hands over fist.

[Searing]

if it is time to get out of market...everyone will realize it at the same time imho ....won't matter ..we will all be 'screwed'

just my thoughts...if a 'slow bleed' I'd likely get most of my btc and/or ltc out (i hope)...but my expectation is 'if she goes tulips' the free fall will be such that it will blast past
my 210 floor anyway....so again...it works or it don't ..that's how i got into it ...that's probably how i will get out...on my feet or boots first

but admire your 'kutspa' ...me don't have the time to delve into this ...nor the 'angst' of learning such.... but if you 'succeed' it is more then likely we all will....so I wish you luck

au contraire!

When it is time to get the fuck out the market, everyone will doing the exact opposite. They will be piling in, hands over fist.

could be true.....i too have drunk the btc and ltc 'kool aid' as usual I will be the last to know....lol

but win/lose/draw the last 3 years have been a hell of a lot of fun!

don't let me 'discourage' you...me .....i know my time/ego/angst/fud limitations on all this....and 'at this time' trading is not on it

on the other hand I have a new scam

'attic mining'

you go to attic (in my case 5k prob of junk) you sell on ebay...you then by btc.....if all goes 'tulips' you have 'clean attic' (in my case fix floor etc 2k) and house value

goes up 15k (also on 'paper' like btc) EGO SAVED....lol...but seriously.....I probably need to do this....(but ebay is sooooo boring) or if/when I kick the bucket that stuff

will all go to a 'landfill' anyway...it is not like my relatives would know how to sell all that apple2/kapro/exotic stuff on ebay anyway I was given/found/got for peanuts...

but as to 'home mining' that is the only version I promote now (or in your case 'trading') only game(s) in town for us 'regular folk'

[MatTheCat]

derp....scrapped.

[Searing]

derp....scrapped.

ditto 'the above quote' for your trading at a loss

we all are quite 'mad'  imho from the majority point of view no matter how we pursue crypto..in my case btc holding...in your case in/out trading....so it goes

Time will definitely tell ....