Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[RichBC]

Looks like another big Day, we are headed for nearly 20% & over 170 Blocks. Has pulled the run rate out of negative territory and now at just over 1%.

oops just seen that Phil posted this some time ago....


Rich

[philipma1957]

Looks like another big Day, we are headed for nearly 20% & over 170 Blocks. Has pulled the run rate out of negative territory and now at just over 1%.

oops just seen that Phil posted this some time ago....


Rich

yeah they just got to 159 blocks with about 2 hours left

[notlist3d]

Looks like another big Day, we are headed for nearly 20% & over 170 Blocks. Has pulled the run rate out of negative territory and now at just over 1%.

oops just seen that Phil posted this some time ago....


Rich

yeah they just got to 159 blocks with about 2 hours left

Price had a not so great day so far.  Were at 380 per BTC, so not sure if it was more bad news or what.  Coindesk had another story about dev - http://www.coindesk.com/blockstream-ceo-bitcoin-industry-creating-toxic-environment-for-developers/ .  But I cant imagine that being enough to cause the 20+ dollar loss in a day.

[radiumsoup]

Price had a not so great day so far.  Were at 380 per BTC, so not sure if it was more bad news or what.

Just like hashrate, price has a variance, too

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/blocks

394533 (Main Chain)

394363 (Main Chain)


that is 171 with 47 minutes to go.


 I want to see it go to 178


178/144 = 1.236111   x  811,421,684 gh =  1,002 ph

[notlist3d]

Price had a not so great day so far.  Were at 380 per BTC, so not sure if it was more bad news or what.

Just like hashrate, price has a variance, too

True but we were hitting 410 at points yesterday and now around 380.  Anyone seen news or reason for it?

I know there is variance  my question was not if there is, but what caused this drop in value.

[philipma1957]

Price had a not so great day so far.  Were at 380 per BTC, so not sure if it was more bad news or what.

Just like hashrate, price has a variance, too

True but we were hitting 410 at points yesterday and now around 380.  Anyone seen news or reason for it?

I know there is variance  my question was not if there is, but what caused this drop in value.

is the usa stock market doing a rally today?
yes it is

so a day trader that mixes BTC and stocks could be why

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/?iid=EL

[adaseb]

Yes yesterday was pretty bad +17.7% for the day, but I don't think we will come over +10% this period, just isn't enough time.

[philipma1957]

Yes yesterday was pretty bad +17.7% for the day, but I don't think we will come over +10% this period, just isn't enough time.

too bad still short of a true 1000ph day   we needed 178 blocks

[RichBC]

Today looking a bit slower. I make the overall run rate for this period as +1.7% and think Today will be something like +8%, 156 Blocks. So if I was picking now it would be in the +2% -to +3% Band. But as we know anything can happen and often does...

Rich

[d57heinz]

Today looking a bit slower. I make the overall run rate for this period as +1.7% and think Today will be something like +8%, 156 Blocks. So if I was picking now it would be in the +2% -to +3% Band. But as we know anything can happen and often does...

Rich

The run rate is up for the daily avg..  Current net hashrate is according to wallet,

Net Hashrate
950,961.21 TH/s

This has held steady for over 24 hours now.. In the past it would just peak and drop .. this time seems a bit diff.    If you look at these two graphs the run rate is shown really well.


http://bitcoin.sipa.be/growth.png

Looking here at the 14 day avg.. we can see its around .5 % growth per day.. Over two weeks that would give you 7 % - the time diff since it wont be exactly 14 days but a little less..  What i do like to see is that the 7 day avg is a bit in flux. so maybe it appears we have reached a peak for a while.. With all the politics going on in btc IMO right now isnt the best time to be increasing your farm.. wait at least till the fork happens and price settles..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

https://blockchain.info/blocks



Height                         Time                  
394644 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 14:09:15         14 hours 10 minutes should be 85 blocks
394539 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 00:06:25


106 blocks  vs 85



so we are headed for 165 block or maybe 170 blocks.

[RichBC]

Yes, just back from Lunch and it looks like I spoke too soon, just as I thought things would turn down for the Day they carried on up... Now looking like another strong day. So far this period now at +2.8% and looking at least as high as Yesterday for the Day. Could even be a 178 Block day?


Rich

[adaseb]

Bitcoinwisdom is showing +7% but NextDifficulty is showing +2.5%

Which is correct?

[philipma1957]

Bitcoinwisdom is showing +7% but NextDifficulty is showing +2.5%

Which is correct?

both kind of

the real time right now is 2.5% and if we do all 144 block days we will be right near 2.5



the future prediction  of 7.5% is true if we continue to rip 170 block days  the 7.5 will come true.

 so 2.5 to 7.5 is the range of possibility   based on all 144 block days from now on or all 170 block days .


I consider above to be fact and below to be all spec


this network can step on the gas to about 1000ph  or hit the breaks to 750 ph.

makes sense to do this if you have huge hash power in reserve.and you do not want to kill the network.

for instance we all have seen bitfury's new chips do 50 gh at 7 watts  and  100 gh at 11 watts.

so if you are bitfury and your 40 mega watt farm can run at either speed.  you built the gear so it is cheap

when you run at  100 gh at 11 watts or full speed your hash power goes to  363ph  you are maxed

when you back off to .06 watts  you drop to 198 ph    

so the swing we see could be 198ph running at 0.06 watts   slow speed and 363 running at .11 watts top speed.

that is very close to the 165 gh swing we see.

if you are the only company in the world that can do this why not run like they do.  Especially if you want bitcoin to continue.

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1453512163472

394717 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 23:46:02

394539 (Main Chain)   2016-01-23 00:06:25


we did 179 blocks  passing 1000 ph for the 24 hour day

179/144 = 1.243055  x  811 =  1008 ph  for the day

[skuser]

 

so the swing we see could be 198ph running at 0.06 watts   slow speed and 363 running at .11 watts top speed.

that is very close to the 165 gh swing we see.

if you are the only company in the world that can do this why not run like they do.  Especially if you want bitcoin to continue.

I am missing logic behind this. What's the difference between turning all gear on and let the diff rise within one two periods and doing it slowlier? Only difference is that you'll mine LESS bitcoins when switching the gear on and off. I think that someone just added about 100 PH recently and the jumps between 700-1000 PH is variance within 'real' 850 PH which we are finally approaching with difficulty change.

[notlist3d]

Bitcoinwisdom is showing +7% but NextDifficulty is showing +2.5%

Which is correct?

both kind of

the real time right now is 2.5% and if we do all 144 block days we will be right near 2.5



the future prediction  of 7.5% is true if we continue to rip 170 block days  the 7.5 will come true.

 so 2.5 to 7.5 is the range of possibility   based on all 144 block days from now on or all 170 block days .

I really would love to see under 5 just as I like that number much better.   2.5 I would consider a serious win compared to changes lately.  I feel we likely will be closer to the 7 though, even though I don't like it as much.

Bit wisdom is down a little:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    121,106,223,373 (+6.84%)
Adjust time:    After 385 Blocks, About 2.4 days
Hashrate(?):    916,733,918 GH/s

[philipma1957]

 

so the swing we see could be 198ph running at 0.06 watts   slow speed and 363 running at .11 watts top speed.

that is very close to the 165 gh swing we see.

if you are the only company in the world that can do this why not run like they do.  Especially if you want bitcoin to continue.

I am missing logic behind this. What's the difference between turning all gear on and let the diff rise within one two periods and doing it slowlier? Only difference is that you'll mine LESS bitcoins when switching the gear on and off. I think that someone just added about 100 PH recently and the jumps between 700-1000 PH is variance within 'real' 850 PH which we are finally approaching with difficulty change.

stick with variance  if it works for you..

but lets try a different way to explain this.

I can crank my in house gear up to 32th  or down to 24th.

At 24th it is more efficient  and is easy to run 0 overheating and no breakdowns.

At 32th it is less efficient and is harder to run lots of over heating and some breakdowns.


I am bit fury  I can run my gear at 200ph  it is more efficient and it is easy to run 0 overheating and no breakdowns

I can run my gear at 360 ph it is less efficient to run lots of overheating and breakdowns

If I max to 360 it does a bigger profit then running at 200., but there is overheating  so I run it at 360ph until it gets too hot then I back off to 200ph


This is the flux  down from 850 to 700 and back up to 1000.

If you look at stats this fits.  But if you want to say variance that fits.

which is more likely.  I think I am not you.

That is the fun of a spec thread.

  As I could be wrong .
you could be wrong .
we both could be wrong.
I could be right.
you could be right.
or maybe it is a bit of both.

[skuser]

  As I could be wrong .
you could be wrong .
we both could be wrong.
I could be right.
you could be right.
or maybe it is a bit of both.

That pretty much sums it up Where is thumbs up icon?

[RichBC]

I should probably stop making any sort of forecast, but Today seems like a quiet flat one. We started the Day with the period run rate at +3.6% and at the moment we are +3.2%. The run rate for the Day has been mostly negative but is just poking it's nose into positive territory. So my guess for the Day is+3.5% & 149 blocks.


Rich