Diff thread Jan 13 to Jan 27 picks are closed!

[philipma1957]

Setting it up.  We have prize money left for 8 jumps.

prize is 0.10


No newbies

You must have joined Oct 31st 2015 or  earlier.

You must have at least 30 posts.


picks are .1 sized


so bellow are typical picks

 -1.0  = philipma1957

 -0.9
 
  0.0
+0.1 = wlefever

+1.1 = adaseb


please use this format

+1.1 = wlefever         would be the easiest for me to track











Pick as high or as low as you want.

no new members  you must have opened your account before  Oct 31st  it must have 30 posts.  It must not have  a recent password change.






Last thread results

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1310083.msg13534902#msg13534902

the winner is   wlefever for last jump of +9.12%



https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate


Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s   the winner is   wlefever    please pm your btc addy I will send coins




Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900   8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643   10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180   5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450   2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480   0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039   2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234   4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455   4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328   2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409   0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846   2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303   3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931   -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355   4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154   -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245   2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018   0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513   -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688   5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645   -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951   1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317   5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962   7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895   -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056   8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017   3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307   -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271   -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328   1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252   10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265   2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026   0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924   16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124   8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902   15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941   5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558   8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979   3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115   14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917   12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138   18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309   10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
Apr 29 2014   8,000,872,136   14.64%   57,272,474 GH/s
Apr 17 2014   6,978,842,650   14.04%   49,956,502 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

[1713565764]

1713565764

[philipma1957]

spacer.

[keystroke]

Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.

[philipma1957]

Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.

Well fourth of July would be all american  but I think   July 10 or 11.


9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38

so since then we did 59 blocks   should have done  55 blocks  so we are at 7.27% real time

[ezeminer]

Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.

Well fourth of July would be all american  but I think   July 10 or 11.


9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38

so since then we did 59 blocks   should have done  55 blocks  so we are at 7.27% real time

If we keep advancing at 8-10% per adjustment, wouldn't the halving come at 8-10% time sooner?

Right now cryptocoinnews estimates at 188 Days until halving, but if we continuously go at 10% wouldn't it be 18.8 days less? Thus halving coming late june.

[fr4nkthetank]

I feel we'll be near 10% again guys

[Mikestang]

I think we're going to be high single digits again, too.  Simply astounding, hundreds of PH each adjustment amount to sooooo many machines being plugged in around the world.

[philipma1957]

Hey Philip, when do you think the halving will be based on the current difficulty increases and hardware sales forecasts? Looks like we are about to pull it forward to July 16th.

Well fourth of July would be all american  but I think   July 10 or 11.


9 hours and 14 minutes ago we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38

so since then we did 59 blocks   should have done  55 blocks  so we are at 7.27% real time

If we keep advancing at 8-10% per adjustment, wouldn't the halving come at 8-10% time sooner?

Right now cryptocoinnews estimates at 188 Days until halving, but if we continuously go at 10% wouldn't it be 18.8 days less? Thus halving coming late june.

we are not going to keep at 8 - 10%  without a price change.

now to answer how fast will we reduce    2016 blocks in 13 days vs 14 days is 155 blocks vs 144 blocks

or 7.64 %  

so it is

 
 Jan 27
 Feb 10
 Feb 24
 Mar  9
 Mar 23
 Apr   6
 Apr 20
 May  4
 May 18
 Jun   1
 Jun  15
 Jun  29
 Jul   13
 Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

so drop 14 days = Jul  13

of course that is with 7.64%

Now  here is why it will not be 7.64%    14 adjustments at that number = a factor of 2.803  so current diff = 113  it would be

2.803 x 113 =   a diff of 317! 

 puts all .25 watt gear under water at 9 cents.

and remember the network has 400ph in  .5 watt or worse gear.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom is starting high double digits:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    113,354,299,801
Estimated Next Difficulty:    125,610,740,850 (+10.81%)
Adjust time:    After 1915 Blocks, About 12.6 days
Hashrate(?):    843,249,330 GH/s

Price is don around 431.. .so the mid 440's are not there right now.

[philipma1957]

 we made block 393120 2016-01-13 06:39:38 this was the 2016 block of last adjustment


block 393121    2016-01-13 07:03:04   this was the 1 block of this adjustment

block 393226   2016-01-14 01:48:42   this was the  106th block if this adjustment


so we are 19 hours and 10 minutes in      that should be    114 blocks


So real world actual time  we are at a negative number.  about   -7.02%

the problem is the network can do  25% higher then this speed.

So  while this low number is nice   the big boys crank it up and we pull a few 175 block days in a row and plus 8 %   or worse.

[keystroke]

Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.

[valkir]

Hope that the diff will stop growing at 10% 

[philipma1957]

Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.

I am not sure how they get the date.

Are they basing it on 9%

Are they basing it on 8%

Are they basing it on 7%

My July 27 is based on 0%

My early July 13 is based on 7%

So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17

[skuser]

Jul   27  current ½ ing  guess

Why 27? bitcoinclock has it at the 17th now.

I am not sure how they get the date.

Are they basing it on 9%

Are they basing it on 8%

Are they basing it on 7%

My July 27 is based on 0%

My early July 13 is based on 7%

So I am not so sure what % they use to get July 17

July 18th which I have on nextdifficulty.com is based on next difficulty estimate + 0% afterwards which is basically 0% minus one two days, the same as bitcoinclock has. So you must have something wrong in your calculations.

edit: the simpliest formula  halvingdays=(420000-lastblocknumber)/144  gives you when say last block was 393260 = 26740/144=185.7 days. Today is January 14th, + 185 days =July 17th

[adaseb]

Yes and even if we get 10% diff increases every period it will probably still be sometime in July or so. Or late June, highly doubt any sooner then that.

[keystroke]

I agree they just keep the change at 0%. I'm also thinking it will happen the first two weeks of July or late June.

26,713 blocks left, 2016 blocks per cycle, so 13.25 cycles left. The halving occurs 1/3 into a difficulty adjustment cycle. Last time it happened 1/6 of the way in.

[adaseb]

Its crazy how we went from 743,604,444 GH/s to 811,421,684 GH/s. That is like 14,315 Antminer S7, and they only sell like 50-100 a day.

Even if Bitfury is more efficent by a factor of 5, thats 2863 Bitfury machines, so they would need to build 250 of them every single day to keep up.

[wpt1wpt1]

Below is an interesting corollary to bitcoin mining. Just as the gold rush progressed individual miners were pushed out as industrial miners were the only ones able to extract the gold profitably. The big difference is with the halving the difficulty of extraction is known well in advance. Hence right now we are in the dig deep, dig fast mode by the industrial miners. They know they only have a limited time to get their return on investment and will deploy equipment until  the ROI disappears and maybe a little longer. It will be really interesting to see what happens as the halving nears, I kind of think the difficulty will slow as some big miners are going to go out of business. Perhaps the  there is hope that the hobby miners will hang on as they are willing to take a small loss to keep mining?


http://www.history.com/topics/gold-rush-of-1849

LASTING IMPACT OF THE GOLD RUSH
After 1850, the surface gold in California largely disappeared, even as miners continued to arrive. Mining had always been difficult and dangerous labor, and striking it rich required good luck as much as skill and hard work. Moreover, the average daily take for an independent miner working with his pick and shovel had by then sharply decreased from what it had been in 1848. As gold became more and more difficult to reach, the growing industrialization of mining drove more and more miners from independence into wage labor. The new technique of hydraulic mining, developed in 1853, brought enormous profits but destroyed much of the region’s landscape.

[d57heinz]

Below is an interesting corollary to bitcoin mining. Just as the gold rush progressed individual miners were pushed out as industrial miners were the only ones able to extract the gold profitably. The big difference is with the halving the difficulty of extraction is known well in advance. Hence right now we are in the dig deep, dig fast mode by the industrial miners. They know they only have a limited time to get their return on investment and will deploy equipment until  the ROI disappears and maybe a little longer. It will be really interesting to see what happens as the halving nears, I kind of think the difficulty will slow as some big miners are going to go out of business. Perhaps the  there is hope that the hobby miners will hang on as they are willing to take a small loss to keep mining?


http://www.history.com/topics/gold-rush-of-1849

LASTING IMPACT OF THE GOLD RUSH
After 1850, the surface gold in California largely disappeared, even as miners continued to arrive. Mining had always been difficult and dangerous labor, and striking it rich required good luck as much as skill and hard work. Moreover, the average daily take for an independent miner working with his pick and shovel had by then sharply decreased from what it had been in 1848. As gold became more and more difficult to reach, the growing industrialization of mining drove more and more miners from independence into wage labor. The new technique of hydraulic mining, developed in 1853, brought enormous profits but destroyed much of the region’s landscape.

Id say that would be more reason for manufacturers to push sales now and into the future.. Just like with the california gold rush.. only a few come out rich.. Out of those few 90 % are the ones that sold the shovels and gold pans .  the analogy applies to this in so many ways!!!!..  That's why when bitmain released s7 at such high price i was pissed.. As i knew where we are ultimately heading..it is what it is..  Mine as much as you can now .. hold as much as you can now. wait for a few halvings and if its increased enough in value for you then sell it..  But you never know if btc will be here in 10 years so that's the big unknown .. Hence this is all a gamble. So to each their own in this experiment..

Best Regards
d57heinz

[notlist3d]

I have been trying to find any news that might have pushed btc down.  Worst I could find recently was Cryptsy - http://www.coindesk.com/class-action-lawsuit-filed-digital-currency-exchange-cryptsy/ .    Do you guy's think the fact of a decent size exchange having problem is having much effect or something else is doing it?

It's still in 430's so not horrible but is lower then a week ago around the 450 price.  So a small drop really I guess in scheme of things.