It does look like a model that describes all or nothing scenarios, and that's not applicable to Bitcoin. There is a model that regularly gets posted here which fits each Bitcoin rally, and has repeated over the years. That's a closer match to the way Bitcoin behaves than the Butler Model.
Sorry, but do you have a link to that? Where I can view this model and decide where bitcoin is along it?
Looks like kind of a pointless model to me. After the "development" period, it just leaves you with some type of assumed 50/50 split as to whether the business succeeds or fails. I would assume people don't invest large amounts of money into things with a coin's flip chance of losing it all, otherwise they would just play dice in a back alley. Without any form of statistical analysis, it's just a far too simplified picture of "sometimes investments are good...sometimes investments are bad...".
I think that once it reaches past a first mass adoption, the same thing happens again.
It goes up wih development and adoption.
It steadies.
It then either declines or rises.
If it rises, the profits are then placed back into the scheme to increase it so once it has gone past the first cycle, it probably has a greater chance of assing the next.