Heading for the cliff.

[8up]

I am a huge fan of changing ones perspective (at least from time to time).

While we have a certain kind of group think in this forum (I guess no one would deny this ), this post is not about the "internal" evaluation of bitcoin. It is about the wider (public) audience. In my post in late October - I wrote about the re-(e)valuation of bitcoin due to be positively featured by The Economist et al. After 3 month of price swings around the $380 mark, we are now entering the critical phase of finished (public) opinion building and decision making (e.g. UK gov https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4sm5LNqL5j0 the IMF http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/sdn/2016/sdn1603.pdf and PBOC http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-currency-digital-idUSKCN0UY1JT).

According to my price targets I issued in November (must buy zone after first correction $320, must buy zone after second correction $400), it's now the time for me to issue a cliff warning for our fellow citizens, as I am expecting the prices to collapse in dollar terms starting in early February.



If my prognosis is right expect taking out the old ATL within 60 days.




PSA: If you want to play it safe. Wait until the $500 mark is cleared.
BTW: The block size fork is a red herring to divide and distract the community members. It will be solved in one way or another - and it's completely priced in at todays prices. In the case of a fork expect huge amounts of cash sitting on the sidelines stabilizing the price!

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[randy8777]

i can't agree with your analysis to be honest. you look too much at what has happened in the past, and that's how you came to the point of saying that we are heading towards a massive crash. also, i don't find the block halving price to be fully priced in already. we have much more potential growth that we can expect to see this year. the block size thing will get fixed this year, i am quite sure about that. what price do you consider to be the atl? the atl after the ath?

[8up]

i can't agree with your analysis to be honest. you look too much at what has happened in the past, and that's how you came to the point of saying that we are heading towards a massive crash. also, i don't find the block halving price to be fully priced in already. we have much more potential growth that we can expect to see this year. the block size thing will get fixed this year, i am quite sure about that. what price do you consider to be the atl? the atl after the ath?

Did you even read?

I can agree, that the dollar (for now) is seen as the only safe-haven by the wider public (global) audience.

ATL in dollar terms? 0.003 - 0.008 BTC/$

[randy8777]

i can't agree with your analysis to be honest. you look too much at what has happened in the past, and that's how you came to the point of saying that we are heading towards a massive crash. also, i don't find the block halving price to be fully priced in already. we have much more potential growth that we can expect to see this year. the block size thing will get fixed this year, i am quite sure about that. what price do you consider to be the atl? the atl after the ath?

Did you even read?

I can agree, that the dollar (for now) is seen as the only safe-heaven by the wider public (global) audience.

ATL in dollar terms? 0.003 - 0.008 BTC/$

yes, i did read. what do you think i missed or may have not read properly? regarding the atl, i was talking as being 1 btc = worth ?.

[8up]

i can't agree with your analysis to be honest. you look too much at what has happened in the past, and that's how you came to the point of saying that we are heading towards a massive crash. also, i don't find the block halving price to be fully priced in already. we have much more potential growth that we can expect to see this year. the block size thing will get fixed this year, i am quite sure about that. what price do you consider to be the atl? the atl after the ath?

Did you even read?

I can agree, that the dollar (for now) is seen as the only safe-heaven by the wider public (global) audience.

ATL in dollar terms? 0.003 - 0.008 BTC/$

yes, i did read. what do you think i missed or may have not read properly? regarding the atl, i was talking as being 1 btc = worth ?.

I didn't talk about the block halving. And I talked about the dollar.

My best guess for Q1/Q2 is $3000 (per Bitcoin).

[MatTheCat]

i can't agree with your analysis to be honest. you look too much at what has happened in the past, and that's how you came to the point of saying that we are heading towards a massive crash. also, i don't find the block halving price to be fully priced in already. we have much more potential growth that we can expect to see this year. the block size thing will get fixed this year, i am quite sure about that. what price do you consider to be the atl? the atl after the ath?

Did you even read?

I can agree, that the dollar (for now) is seen as the only safe-heaven by the wider public (global) audience.

ATL in dollar terms? 0.003 - 0.008 BTC/$

You said what you wanted to say in a very convoluted way. On first read through, I thought you were forecasting that Bitcoin fall off a cliff come early February and that the USD will be seen as the safety asset.

The above, in the way I have described it, I can agree with. First stop for wealth fleeing equities is USD. Then from USD, to government bonds. As equities take a kicking, economy grinds into recession, and commodities/hard assets (and Bitcoin IS A COMMODITY, NOT A CURRENCY) take a kicking along with equities. Indeed, we have seen commodities take a kicking in advance of the equity bubble popping, due in no small part to real economic activity slowing down.

Only after investors lose confidence in value of USD and/or government bonds, will commodities experience a rapid price boom as capital flees to the last gasp safe haven assets, that have no counter party risk and will always have some degree of subjective value, despite not offering anything in the way of dividends (except perhaps for rising prices).

Bitcoin could be a tricky one though, namely due to it's use for Capital Flight out of China. But make no mistake. The Chinese Capital fleeing the CNY and into Bitcoin, is not looking to flee into the 'safe haven' of Bitcoin. It is rather more seeking refuge in USD. That could mean Bitcoin pumps as CNY piles into Bitcoin (and China ALWAYS leads Bitcoin pumps), and dumps as that BTC is then converter into USD. Indeed, this is probably what we have witnessed recently, and since we have just had a pump that played out at 3 times the speed of the dump (this is not how bull markets move), I am guessing that the next dump is incoming over the next week or so, as the Chinese Capital moves from BTC, into Safe Haven USD!

Furthermore. Equities have already taken such a beating. AS you know, markets don't move directly from A-Z. They move up n down all over the place. Far more likely than not that equities are about to experience a counter trend rally, now that Joe Public is sufficiently freaked out by the markets, and has cashed out 'before its too late'.

[cellard]

The block size fork is not happening anymore, people has woken up from the scam, miners in china said no to Classic, we will stick with core, we will get 0.12 soon, and we will keep growing and improving.

[bitlancr]

The block size fork is not happening anymore, people has woken up from the scam, miners in china said no to Classic, we will stick with core, we will get 0.12 soon, and we will keep growing and improving.

That's all I'm looking for when I'm thinking about bitcoin. It's all about improvement. I don't really care about the rest anymore.
Improvement and potential are important to me when I'm investing into something like bitcoin.

[panju1]

The block size fork is currently in the news; it will be soon replaced by block reward halving.
Although some of this might be priced in, it could still give a boost to the price.

[rebuilder]

The block size fork is not happening anymore, people has woken up from the scam, miners in china said no to Classic, we will stick with core, we will get 0.12 soon, and we will keep growing and improving.

Source please.

[Amph]

The block size fork is not happening anymore, people has woken up from the scam, miners in china said no to Classic, we will stick with core, we will get 0.12 soon, and we will keep growing and improving.

Source please.

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/41zgn6/translation_of_an_excerpt_from_an_article/

[Snorek]

The block size fork is not happening anymore, people has woken up from the scam, miners in china said no to Classic, we will stick with core, we will get 0.12 soon, and we will keep growing and improving.

Source please.

This thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1335747.0

Also this:

Bitcoin Magazine journalist and Coin Desk contributor Aaron van Wirdum



https://twitter.com/AaronvanW/status/690120783281156097

Chinese miners opt for fast cash and easy mining instead of upgrading network and progress of bitcoin in general.

[rebuilder]

I read the Reddit thread, and was left unable to decide whether the Chinese source was a factual account or biased spin. I can't verify for myself since I don't unfortunately read Chinese.

Wirdum's tweet seems more clear but who is this guy? Is this someone who goes out of their way to check their sources or someone who posts firsts, asks questions later?

Excuse me for being skeptical here, but how many times have we gotten worked up about what "China" is doing here only to find out later nothing much happened after all?

[maokoto]

Chinese miners opt for fast cash and easy mining instead of upgrading network and progress of bitcoin in general.

I think this is quite accurate. Why would they want to update if they are already getting money and all is working smoothly for them?

They will not likely update unless they are forced to do so.

[btcxyzzz]

Your graph is ridiculous. It's like some voodoo magic . And while I agree there will be another fall, I doubt it will go significantly down, ~340 area is expected.