bitcoin market

[xxjs]

The bitcoin has traded essentially between 13.0 and 13.5 for weeks now. Excluding the smallest bids and asks, the spread is mostly around 0.07, or .5%. This is only enough to cover the expenses to mtgox, not to cover for exchanging between dollars and other currencies or investments.

The so called walls, or large buy or sell orders well outside the current equilibrium, does not really convey information, as it is not backed by action. Someone could place a sell order on 16, but as it could be weeks before we come there, the order could be cancelled. Conversely someone who would sell at 16, would not necessarily place an order now, he could just as well wait until we pass 15. So basically, it is only the orders around the equilibrium that conveys meaningfull information to the market. What is 10 k coins anyway, it is just one days volume at the lowest volume for weeks.

The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

Most people are not aware of the looming crisis in the dollar or the bonds or whatever gets it first, they are unaware of the bogous economic parameters put forward by the Fed (CPI, GDP, money velocity...). New users, who discover that bitcoin as sound money could be used in stead of gold, value shares, and of course dollars, seem to be slow coming. It also appears that someone discovering bitcoin and its virtues, does not jump right in but needs at least a couple of months before he aquires a substantial amount of coins. Still, I think there are some newcomers all the time, enough to soup up the continuing block rewards. Most people who are in, want to stay, only some early miners may find they have a lot, and want to reduce to secure their current gains. They don't necessarily consume or invest in dollars, they could move to value shares, gold, or other sound investment, just different from bitcoins, for diversification. Anyway, these surplus coins will sooner or later be exhausted.

In short, I sense a slow and mostly stable upward trend.

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[xxjs]

No comments - looks like I got this exactly right.

[Kupsi]

I believe there will be a pretty fast and unstable upward trend 

[arepo]

The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

i don't understand this bit. also, why bullish again?

[Luno]

The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

i don't understand this bit. also, why bullish again?

exactly. The fiscal cliff panic put pressure on the dollar and US stocks went up. Today we have a sellout of US stocks from must be Asia as US is sleeping now.

Often random spikes / dips, which return to normal in a few days, are a result of disturbance to the Dollar i.e. Bitcoin is the stable currency.

[lebing]

Bitcoin is the stable currency.

Bitcoin isnt really used as a hedge yet for the major players which is why its more or less immune to these world events. When that changes, we know that the currency has arrived on the world scene.

[xxjs]

The low volume suggests relative stable value scales on the part of the sellers and buyers on the market. Volume and of course direction og course indicates changes mind on part of the current bitcoin holders. Even if we rule out newcomers, I expect the btc to go slowly higher as fear of reduction of the exchange value of the dollar increases.

i don't understand this bit. also, why bullish again?

I meant
In case of zero volume: The players are in, and the market is cleared. Some prospect price x in the future, some think y. When everybody has echanged accordingly, the trade stops. As soon as these condsiderations change for one or more people, trade starts again. The trend points to another equilibrium in the future.

The situation now is therefore that most players that know about bitcoins, are satisfied with their current holdings. That is the reason for the low volume. This of course will change.

[arepo]

I meant
In case of zero volume: The players are in, and the market is cleared. Some prospect price x in the future, some think y. When everybody has echanged accordingly, the trade stops. As soon as these condsiderations change for one or more people, trade starts again. The trend points to another equilibrium in the future.

The situation now is therefore that most players that know about bitcoins, are satisfied with their current holdings. That is the reason for the low volume. This of course will change.

you've adequately described how volatility acts as a positive feedback loop.

however, to reference the OP, i doubt bitcoin's value will come anytime soon from fear of dollar depreciation. forget the fiscal cliff, american politics really doesn't affect the value of the dollar. inflation rates are well-known and the budget drama is all posturing. the worst that could happen is another credit rating downgrade resulting in less favorable interest rates. not even an economic recession as described as absolute worst case post sequestration could cause people to lose enough faith in the dollar to effect the BTCUSD rate. right now, bitcoin-related events have a much larger impact (think the WP announcement, ASIC progress) than "real-world" events.

i personally think that large players are waiting for the right rally to spring the bull-trap. see my recent bulleted list as to the reasons why bitcoins are overpriced right now.

[adamstgBit]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

LOL, speculators can't see any other use for bitcoin then to speculate.
Maybe bitcoin isn't hitting mainstream just yet, maybe it never really will, but its not going to crash and burn because of this...
Your fucking BLIND if you can't see the growth.
did you sell everything yet? no? I hope you fall in the bear trap coming up...

[lebing]

LOL, speculators can't see any other use for bitcoin then to speculate.
Maybe bitcoin isn't hitting mainstream just yet, maybe it never really will, but its not going to crash and burn because of this...
Your fucking BLIND if you can't see the growth.
did you sell everything yet? no? I hope you fall in the bear trap coming up...

[arepo]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

LOL, speculators can't see any other use for bitcoin then to speculate.
Maybe bitcoin isn't hitting mainstream just yet, maybe it never really will, but its not going to crash and burn because of this...
Your fucking BLIND if you can't see the growth.
did you sell everything yet? no? I hope you fall in the bear trap coming up...

im sorry, did you address any of the above points? or did you quote me to contrast my well-structured analysis with your emotional rant?

"speculators gonna speculate" actually ties into why the hell the price doubled on no news. sure, infrastructure is building. actually, as far as the project is concerned, im amazed and inspired by how far we've come; bitcoin is robust and will one day have its shot at widespread adoption. and nobody said anything about 'crashing and burning', but rather a good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.

[lebing]

good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that there have been plenty of reality checks. Even in just the last 6 months.

[xxjs]

I meant
In case of zero volume: The players are in, and the market is cleared. Some prospect price x in the future, some think y. When everybody has echanged accordingly, the trade stops. As soon as these condsiderations change for one or more people, trade starts again. The trend points to another equilibrium in the future.

The situation now is therefore that most players that know about bitcoins, are satisfied with their current holdings. That is the reason for the low volume. This of course will change.

you've adequately described how volatility acts as a positive feedback loop.

however, to reference the OP, i doubt bitcoin's value will come anytime soon from fear of dollar depreciation. forget the fiscal cliff, american politics really doesn't affect the value of the dollar. inflation rates are well-known and the budget drama is all posturing. the worst that could happen is another credit rating downgrade resulting in less favorable interest rates. not even an economic recession as described as absolute worst case post sequestration could cause people to lose enough faith in the dollar to effect the BTCUSD rate. right now, bitcoin-related events have a much larger impact (think the WP announcement, ASIC progress) than "real-world" events.

i personally think that large players are waiting for the right rally to spring the bull-trap. see my recent bulleted list as to the reasons why bitcoins are overpriced right now.

Obviously I don't quite agree that people are not worried about the value of the dollar, otherwise suppose your forecast is a possible outcome.

[arepo]

good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that there have been plenty of reality checks. Even in just the last 6 months.

im talking about the rate of price increase versus the rate of 'real value' increase. it's generally assumed that btc price jumps at news because of increased utility, confidence, et cetera. the price doubling makes me suspicious of the current exchange rate.

Obviously I don't quite agree that people are not worried about the value of the dollar, otherwise suppose your forecast is a possible outcome.

so what's your forecast? hyperinflation?

[xxjs]

good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.

Yeah, I'm pretty sure that there have been plenty of reality checks. Even in just the last 6 months.

im talking about the rate of price increase versus the rate of 'real value' increase. it's generally assumed that btc price jumps at news because of increased utility, confidence, et cetera. the price doubling makes me suspicious of the current exchange rate.

Obviously I don't quite agree that people are not worried about the value of the dollar, otherwise suppose your forecast is a possible outcome.

so what's your forecast? hyperinflation?

Downward pressure for people with lots of coins, still slow gain due to worry about the dollar and new users.

[xxjs]

so what's your forecast? hyperinflation?

If you ask about the dollar, quite high price inflation of 15% starting this year, crises in the periphery (developing countries):

[adamstgBit]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

heres a short list:
price double, ostensibly from the reward halving, but anyone who looks at the math involved in the halving with regards to the protocol would realize (as it was widely discussed) that there is no such cut-and-dry "supply halving" to cause this to happen. yet the market priced it in rather suddenly, not based on any other real news, after the extremely low-volatility period in the early summer.

straight lines on log graphs are unsustainable: something is going on here. we aren't seeing widespread adoption which would hypothetically follow an exponential growth model. we're just seeing people buying reallly expensive bitcoins.

accumulation/distribution at an all-time high and is losing momentum.

optimism: we're still in the 'denial' phase of investor emotion cycles after the rocket to 15 crashed and burned and we failed to even come close to the all-time high.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

LOL, speculators can't see any other use for bitcoin then to speculate.
Maybe bitcoin isn't hitting mainstream just yet, maybe it never really will, but its not going to crash and burn because of this...
Your fucking BLIND if you can't see the growth.
did you sell everything yet? no? I hope you fall in the bear trap coming up...

im sorry, did you address any of the above points? or did you quote me to contrast my well-structured analysis with your emotional rant?

"speculators gonna speculate" actually ties into why the hell the price doubled on no news. sure, infrastructure is building. actually, as far as the project is concerned, im amazed and inspired by how far we've come; bitcoin is robust and will one day have its shot at widespread adoption. and nobody said anything about 'crashing and burning', but rather a good old reality check to end the neverending bullrun that we've seen to date.

I was going to address each point you made with a counter argument, but i lazy so i went for an emotional rant  

price did double on no news, but that's fine... I guess its hard for us to understand this, cuz many of us have been here for years, but not everyone knows about bitcoin
the rise we saw was because a few big fish found out and invest in bitcoin recently.

the neverending bullrun is never ending. There is no need to check, this is reality!  

[meanig]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

WRONG!

Six months ago it wasn't possible to buy cocaine straight from Colombia and have it shipped to Europe/US on Silkroad. Now it is. Like it or not that is a big boost to the utility value of Bitcoin.   

[arepo]

has silkroad really expanded so significantly? (citation?)

[lebing]

bitcoins are wayyy overpriced right now. even ignoring technical analysis (which i generally do not -- i've been following along in the CRASH thread with similar notations and predictions as lucif) there is reason to suspect, as many on this forum -- albeit quietly -- do, that we are heading towards a midterm downtrend or even, for the first time in bitcoin history, a long-term downtrend.

and finally, probably my most subjective point:

bitcoins were worth $5 six months ago and there has been no significant increase in their utility or future value promise: i firmly believe the recent doubling is due to hype about the reward halving and market manipulation by pirate and others.

WRONG!

Six months ago it wasn't possible to buy cocaine straight from Colombia and have it shipped to Europe/US on Silkroad. Now it is. Like it or not that is a big boost to the utility value of Bitcoin.   

lulz.

And to address the necessity of further utility - since when is this necessary for price movement? Since when has there been further utility in gold?

Future value promise is, well skyrocketing. If you are paying attention to the numbers that bitpay is putting out, this is a reason to be VERY bullish long term.