Diff thread Jan 26 to Feb 9 picks are closed. 0.2btc prize

[usenet]

I do not see now reason to drop below $300.
I see the madness in China. New equipment on credit. If dark vision would come true all lose really big money. Usually darkest visions do not work - the most optimistic as well.

[tertius993]

I did a fairly quick bit of analysis of blocks, transactions, fees, etc.

Looking over the last 1,000 blocks:

a. there were an average of 1,155 transactions per block
b. each block averaged 655kB in size
c. average transaction fees were 0.25948682 per block
d. which is 0.000224744 per transaction

The maximum number of transactions per block seems to be around 3300 - only two blocks exceeded this number, so I took 3300 is a practical maximum.

In order for the transaction fees to fully replace the 12.5 BTC reduction at the halving:

1. on current Tx volumes, the fee will have to rise to an average of 0.010826382/Tx (a 48-fold increase)
2. transactions increase to the maximum (3300) and the fees rise to an average of 0.003787879/Tx (a 16-fold increase)

If the fees/transaction don't rise, then the transaction volume would have to increase to 55,000 transactions per block (same 16-fold increase)

Alternatively, if neither the fees (in BTC) nor the volumes increase, then the value of BTC will need to rise to $734, in order for the block reward of 12.5 plus the fees to have the same total dollar value as today.

(I used a BTC price of $375 for the calculations).

Realistically transactions won't rise just because of the halving, it's largely external factors that will drive more transactions.

I can't see fees rising that much - a 16-fold increase at current prices would mean each transaction cost around $1.40.

So either the price of BTC goes up or the miners are going to make less - but similarly I can't see that a (potential) reduction in supply of 1800 coins a day would drive such an increase.



 

[usenet]

I think similar. It's nice that you did this calculation. In anticipation of the growth of the BTC is followed a very rapid increase in computing power.
Someone who uses technical analysis (Elliott Wave Principle) also can determine the BTC/USD targets.

[adaseb]

What the guy said a few posts back is correct.

There is ABSOLUTELY no correlation between hashrate/difficulty and BTC price. IF there is any correlation is very small amount.

Look at 2014 year. The price went from like $1000 all the way down to $150 and difficulty skyrocketed about 4000% that year and what happened with the hashrate? It had one negative week and then remained stable.

I don't think price will crash but it might dip into the $300 area or so. And I don't think the hashrate will decrease.

[philipma1957]

Today is down and we are finished at +23.6% for the day!

I cashed ½ my coins today.  I will buy back when we drop under 250.

Looking forward to this crash.

i hope you are "trolling" on this one.. are you?  is this a joke?  how can we go back to $250 with such diff jumps and investments in mining?

is your opinion that whatever equipment mining the new diff increases is SOOO cheap to produce that they will dump coins for any price down to new unknown levels?

growth is stupid high.  so something has to give.

I am positioned  in this manner.

I sold 6 coins

I kept 6 coins

I have 4 avalon6's

If coins crash to 250 I will buy 9 coins with my sales from yesterday.

If coins go to 600  I will sell the six on hand.
Keeping my mining earnings from the 4 avalon6's

If coins stay between 250 to 600

 I will  do no buys or sales, but keep the mining earnings.

So I have multiple moves to do.



 My analysis shows us to have a transaction growth issue. Which is yet to be dealt with.

transactions were 25,000 a day in July 2012  they are now 200,000


     so we went up 8x  most people do not remember  transaction fees were 0.0010  and are now 0.0002
so the actual transactions can be adjusted from 200,000 to 40,000
yes coins are not 10 usd they are 360 usd , but we simply are not growing transaction wise.

So a big move is going to happen since growth is simply crazy.

[notlist3d]

Price went up from around 370 to 386 today.  So nothing massive but still a jump up.

Bitwsidom still high:
Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,985,324,370 (+19.95%)
Adjust time:    After 460 Blocks, About 2.6 days
Hashrate(?):    1,035,384,430 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):    
1 block: 8.2 minutes

[adaseb]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

[philipma1957]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

well this website has us at 138904359120/120033340651 = 1.1572   that converts to 15.721%  with 414 blocks left


 https://bitcoincharts.com/   


Blocks   396738
Total BTC   15.168M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   138604359120 in 414 blks
 
Network total   939999.756 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.56 / 548 s

[notlist3d]

Well today was only +16%

If it slows down we might get lucky and it'll end up being +15% for the period, but that seems far fetched with what has been going on lately.

well this website has us at 138904359120/120033340651 = 1.1572   that converts to 15.721%  with 414 blocks left


 https://bitcoincharts.com/   


Blocks   396738
Total BTC   15.168M
 
Difficulty   120033340651
Estimated   138604359120 in 414 blks
 
Network total   939999.756 Thash/s
Blocks/hour   6.56 / 548 s

It feels weird to hope for 15... a solid double digit number.   Just much higher then I like.  Bitcoin did rise a tad today, not to point we need with jumps like this.  But I guess take what positives we can have.

Tonight not a ton of time left bitwisdom is at:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    120,033,340,651
Estimated Next Difficulty:    143,018,016,533 (+19.15%)
Adjust time:    After 385 Blocks, About 2.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,067,233,187 GH/s

[mavericklm]

Adjust time:    After 381 Blocks, About 2.2 days
Hashrate(?):    1,067,439,254 GH/s

Looks like it's calming the fuck down!

Chinese Spring Festival holiday! Yeeeeeeeeeee

And after that comes the armagedon!

[RichBC]

Thought I would share the graph I have been working on.



The scale on the top is Blocks and the Yellow vertical lines the Days.

The Blue Line is the cumulative Run rate for the Period read from the RH scale and at the moment is at +17.32%

The Purple line is the Daily Run rate read from the LH scale, currently at  +38% It is reset each day which gives some initially wild points as there are so few points. The yellow triangle marks the final Daily rate.

Beyond the short vertical line is a projection. We have the rest of Today, Tomorrow and a short run on Sunday to finish the period. Do not take much notice of the projection as it's set to finish at +19%  which is still possible....


Rich

[adaseb]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

[philipma1957]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

[tss]

looks like we may end up at over 20%..... wish i was part of this one.  totally forgot about it when picks closed.

[adaseb]

Its bad, it will probably end at +20% and in 10 days it will go up at least +10%. I don't think it will stabilize at +20% and remain constant.

[philipma1957]

Its bad, it will probably end at +20% and in 10 days it will go up at least +10%. I don't think it will stabilize at +20% and remain constant.

no  I think this is good.  it has to be a new mine .

I really think next jump will be very small.

this adjustment had no swings like the others.

making it very likely a big mine opened.

We will see really soon .

[ezeminer]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

So if it is a new farm being added, bitfury or spondoolies?

who would you place your bets on?

[philipma1957]

Checked the hashrate for the last 12 hours and its +40%

Doesn't look like an end is in sight. Price is up +5% at least.

It will be definately around +20%, less than 2 days to go.

In the last 2 years there were only 2 times when we went above +20%


Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371   24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039   20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s

This 20% is not s-7 and avalon6 sales.  It was very stable

Jan 26 161
Jan 27 151
Jan 28 150
Jan 29 164
Jan 30 187
Jan 31 183
Feb   1 165
Feb   2 177
Feb   3 177
Feb   4 172



Those numbers above translate to at least a  100ph farm added.

That could be good if true as we may now flatten out.

Bitmaintech is not shipping s-7s for 2 weeks

Avalon sells a max of 3.5ph per week or 7ph a diff jump  which is under 1%

So I have to hope for a lower diff next time.

So if it is a new farm being added, bitfury or spondoolies?

who would you place your bets on?

I don't know but the dragon chip build the A1's is a third possibility.

we came into this adjustment with 859 ph  and we are leaving with over 1000ph  this is a 18 to 21 %

and more then 160ph 

210  s-7's =  1 ph

2100 s-7's = 10 ph

21,000 s-7's = 100 ph

35,000 s-7's = 160 ph.

my guess is a big deployment of  sp50's and of A1 dragon chip company = Innosilcon (sp)

a 160ph deployment needs to be a big farm as bitmaintech did not sell 35,000 s-7's
or 30,000 s7's along with avalon selling 6,000 avalon6's

Have to hope it is a big farm and we go flat in diff.

[alh]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

[philipma1957]

Why couldn't this be deployments of Bitfury based gear, or even 21 Inc stuff? The 21 folks have been very quiet lately.....

could be you are correct.  It is   hard to tell since most all big guys only tell ½ or less of what they have planned.