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Author Topic: Fee market or Fullblockapolypse  (Read 1442 times)
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Fatman3001
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February 29, 2016, 03:51:16 PM
Last edit: February 29, 2016, 04:02:32 PM by Fatman3001
 #1

I had a discussion with AlexGR in the snake pit (Wall Observer) and I am curious to see if anyone in technical has an opinion on the network spikes we're seeing.

Have you noticed that the mempool tends to bloat up massively whenever the price moves $10-$15?

Spam? Dust? Or people desperately trying to move coins to make a trade?

Why isn't there a fee spike then? Are those "desperate" people to "make a trade" lacking 2-3-4 cents? Would it be a big impact to their wallet to pay such a small fee if they are going to make so much money from a good trade?

Because they are users.

They do what's supposed to work and it doesn't.

Not that adding fees will make the blocks bigger anyway.





Jeebus [expletive deleted] Creebus!

https://tradeblock.com/bitcoin/

1.86 million XBT stuck in the mempool!

Gimme a break:

1,900,982.81 XBT (x440 = 836mn USD)

Total fees
4.8090 XBT (x 440 = 2115 USD)

"We want to move around 836mn USD but are only willing to pay 2k in fees so we will wait a few hours or days".

Makes sense, doesn't it?

No, it doesn't. Which sort of shows that the fee market doesn't work.

Maybe we should invite Mike Hearn back so he can sort this out.

The fee market works great:

https://bitcoinfees.21.co

Can you see who are waiting? Oh yes, those who pay the least.

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pedrog
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February 29, 2016, 06:20:59 PM
 #2

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

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March 01, 2016, 05:00:35 AM
 #3

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

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March 01, 2016, 08:20:22 AM
 #4


3.5million BTC stuck in mempool.

All spam



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March 01, 2016, 09:03:15 AM
 #5

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

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March 01, 2016, 10:53:56 AM
 #6

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)

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jl777
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March 01, 2016, 10:58:51 AM
 #7

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)
block rewards are cutting in half. expenses going up
need to boost revenues
limit available tx
boost txfee revenues

in 2016, not any 2140

http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html
100+ page annual report for SuperNET
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March 01, 2016, 11:01:56 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2016, 11:52:08 AM by pedrog
 #8

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)

We're still in adoption phase, the priority should be in scaling the technology (more transaction capacity), not creating reasons for new users not to use bitcoin.

In the end "The free market will win. I just can't tell yet if it means replacing Core or Bitcoin."

BTW, I don't care what happens in 2140. Smiley

Fatman3001
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March 01, 2016, 11:15:54 AM
 #9

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)
block rewards are cutting in half. expenses going up
need to boost revenues
limit available tx
boost txfee revenues

in 2016, not any 2140

Mining is a highly competitive business and the reward halving has been known since before Satoshi fired up the first node. There is no reason to try to protect the mining industry in this way.

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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March 01, 2016, 11:27:41 AM
 #10

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)
block rewards are cutting in half. expenses going up
need to boost revenues
limit available tx
boost txfee revenues

in 2016, not any 2140

Mining is a highly competitive business and the reward halving has been known since before Satoshi fired up the first node. There is no reason to try to protect the mining industry in this way.
Nobody needs to protect the miners, since the control the blockchain. Since the miners determine which hardfork wins, to expect they will choose a version that gives them less money is not realistic.

http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html
100+ page annual report for SuperNET
Fatman3001
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March 01, 2016, 11:36:36 AM
 #11

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)
block rewards are cutting in half. expenses going up
need to boost revenues
limit available tx
boost txfee revenues

in 2016, not any 2140

Mining is a highly competitive business and the reward halving has been known since before Satoshi fired up the first node. There is no reason to try to protect the mining industry in this way.
Nobody needs to protect the miners, since the control the blockchain. Since the miners determine which hardfork wins, to expect they will choose a version that gives them less money is not realistic.

That just means they won't do anything to destroy the fiat value of BTC.

So they'll go with one that, in their view, ensures the future success of Bitcoin.


"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
jl777
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March 01, 2016, 11:48:59 AM
 #12

There's no fee market, no wallet is prepared for such a thing, nor are users.

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

What do you mean by "we still have subsidy" ?

25 new bitcoins block reward.

So you believe that a fee market would spontaneously manifest in the year 2140 when mining is done?
I think a fee market would be priced in long before that moment.
Unless, of course, we HF and create unlimited blocksize (and kill the infant before we even get close to 2140)
block rewards are cutting in half. expenses going up
need to boost revenues
limit available tx
boost txfee revenues

in 2016, not any 2140

Mining is a highly competitive business and the reward halving has been known since before Satoshi fired up the first node. There is no reason to try to protect the mining industry in this way.
Nobody needs to protect the miners, since the control the blockchain. Since the miners determine which hardfork wins, to expect they will choose a version that gives them less money is not realistic.

That just means they won't do anything to destroy the fiat value of BTC.

So they'll go with one that, in their view, ensures the future success of Bitcoin.


there are strong arguments on both sides of whether 10x higher txfees will help or hurt bitcoin. It seems to complicated to accurately understand.

I predict txfees will asymtotically approach sqrt(blockreward)

http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html
100+ page annual report for SuperNET
Fatman3001
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March 01, 2016, 11:58:39 AM
 #13


Just to get things back on track, I guess what I was wondering when I started the thread was:

1. Are these txs we've seen in the current surge real?

And

2. Is the fee market functioning or are people mindlessly sending genuine txs with too low fees and getting stuck?

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
jl777
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March 01, 2016, 12:11:48 PM
 #14


Just to get things back on track, I guess what I was wondering when I started the thread was:

1. Are these txs we've seen in the current surge real?

And

2. Is the fee market functioning or are people mindlessly sending genuine txs with too low fees and getting stuck?
With ~$2 billion in crypto (BTC) VC investments, it wouldnt surprise me if some of these startups are entering test or even rollout phases.

http://www.digitalcatallaxy.com/report2015.html
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March 02, 2016, 07:33:33 PM
 #15


Just to get things back on track, I guess what I was wondering when I started the thread was:

1. Are these txs we've seen in the current surge real?

And

2. Is the fee market functioning or are people mindlessly sending genuine txs with too low fees and getting stuck?

I find it rather fishy that this seizure was perfectly timed to coincide with Mr Andresen's prediction about capacity. There are no shortage of big block fanatics who'd happily spam away.

Lots of people never pay attention to the fees in their wallets, they may not even be offered any choice. It was working fine a few hours before. It's working fine for me now with my usual fees.

Fatman3001
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March 02, 2016, 07:40:48 PM
 #16


Just to get things back on track, I guess what I was wondering when I started the thread was:

1. Are these txs we've seen in the current surge real?

And

2. Is the fee market functioning or are people mindlessly sending genuine txs with too low fees and getting stuck?

I find it rather fishy that this seizure was perfectly timed to coincide with Mr Andresen's prediction about capacity. There are no shortage of big block fanatics who'd happily spam away.

Lots of people never pay attention to the fees in their wallets, they may not even be offered any choice. It was working fine a few hours before. It's working fine for me now with my usual fees.

The dominant view seems to be that it's an attack of sorts.

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/is-bitcoin-under-attack-spam-fees-block-size-debate

The writers conclusion is quite elegant: "Attack or not, the result is the same: being a bitcoin user has got to be really fucking annoying today."

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." - Robert Metcalfe, 1995
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March 03, 2016, 01:25:53 AM
 #17

there are strong arguments on both sides of whether 10x higher txfees will help or hurt bitcoin. It seems to complicated to accurately understand.

I predict txfees will asymtotically approach sqrt(blockreward)


Interesting.  SO as (blockreward) goes geometrically towards zero, txfees also go towards zero and..  which coin will you move to? 

"Give me control over a coin's checkpoints and I care not who mines its blocks."
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March 03, 2016, 05:33:31 AM
 #18

Interesting.  SO as (blockreward) goes geometrically towards zero, txfees also go towards zero and..  which coin will you move to?
fiat currency  Grin
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March 04, 2016, 01:12:49 AM
 #19

Plus there's no need for a 'fee market', we still have subsidy.

75% of all bitcoins that will ever exist have already been mined. In 6 years time that number will be 90%

The era of miner subsidies is fast coming to an end.

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March 04, 2016, 01:29:35 AM
 #20

Interesting.  SO as (blockreward) goes geometrically towards zero, txfees also go towards zero and..  which coin will you move to?
fiat currency  Grin

lol Smiley 


I didn't ask which counterfeiters will you support.  I asked which coin will you move to. 

"Give me control over a coin's checkpoints and I care not who mines its blocks."
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