[HZ] [ANN] The "Open Auditing" 2016 US Election Prediction Market Project

[Nxtblg]

THE OPEN-AUDIT INITIATIVE: 2016 US ELECTION PREDICTION MARKET PROJECT

This Horizon project consists of a slew of prediction-market Assets that shadow PredictWise's price data. This project is experimental. The owner of PredictWise has kindly let me have access to APIs that will provide the numbers for the tradebot that will keep these Assets in line with his derived market-price data.

Just to let you know, this project is started and run by yours truly, who is solely responsible for it. Neither PredictWise not the Horizon dev team is associated with it, except as independent supplier of data and independent supplier of the 2nd-gen cryptocurrency platform. The responsibility for this project is all on my shoulders.

"Hello World!"

Welcome to the first iteration, the "Hello World" if you will, of an initiative I call Open Auditing. Each of the Assets listed below in this post contain instructions on how to audit my pricing claims. Also below is step-by-step detailed instructions for any Assets you wish to audit. for a post of part of the audit instructions. Since the Horizon Asset system only allows for 1000 characters, and the full instructions clocked in at ~1600 characters, I had to post Part 2 of the instructions here. It's in the post just below this one.

YOU CAN AUDIT ANY ONE OF THESE ASSETS CONVENIENTLY by using a special Horizon demo account. It holds ten of each contract. Using the tables below, you can find the one(s) you want to price-check. The Account ID is NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5 Just copy and paste this exact ID into your Horizon wallet. If you don't have one, feel free to use this Web wallet.  After copying and pasting the Account ID, your login box should look like this:

Feel free to click "Remember Account." If you trust me, you can use this direct link to NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5.

If you don't trust me - perhaps you shouldn't - you can download your own independent full-node Horizon wallet here. Please check your download against one of the checksums provided to make sure you've got the right .zip file. You can download a checksum checker here. One you've got it installed, click the "Manage" button and the "Open File" icon on the top left of the Manage page. Load the Horizon wallet into it. Then, press the "Archive Information" icon - it's third to the right - and then press the "Checksums" button. The checksum you get should match the one for your full-node wallet on the official download page.

This guide in the official Horizon announcement thread tells you how to set up your new node.

Once you've got your wallet set up, or the direct link to my Web wallet opened up, click the "Asset Exchange" button on the left. It looks like this:

If you're using my Web wallet link to account NHZ-R66W-847L-MTQR-5CSH5, you'll see the Assets already loaded in a list just to the right of the blue buttons. If you're using your own node, you'll have to add them yourself by clicking the Add Asset button in the upper right of the page and entering the Asset ID number. The list of contracts just below has the ID number for each of them.

If you are DIYing with your own wallet, you can fill up your Asset Exchange bookmarks by clicking the above-mentioned Add Asset button...

...entering the Asset ID number in the form that pops up...

...and clicking the Add Asset button on the form. You'll see it added to your Asset Exchange bookmarks.

As you'll soon find out, the above Asset ID corresponds to the contract, "Will the winner of the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election be a Democrat?" Click here to get the contract lists!

[1713570337]

1713570337

[1713570337]

1713570337

[1713570337]

1713570337

[Nxtblg]

PLEASE COMPLETE THE STEPS TO OPEN-AUDIT (1) AND LEAVE OPEN THE PREDICTWISE PAGE YOU USED. YOU'LL FIND THE ASSET'S NAME AT THE TOP-LEFT OF ITS PAGE IN THE HORIZON WALLET. 

HOW TO OPEN-AUDIT (2) --> STEP ONE: Subtract 1 from the number in your calculator, or divide by 2 if your number's < 1. STEP TWO: Look in Buy Orders for Asset Issuer's bid to see if the Price numbers match. STEP 3: Click Asset Issuer; you'll see a ledger for Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet. STEP 4: Click "Assets" and look in the ledger for the Asset's Name. To the right of the Asset Name, you'll see a Quantity. STEP 5: Clear your calculator and enter in 10000 . This number is the Total Available of the Asset. STEP 6: Subtract the Quantity you found - the amount of it held by Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet - from the 10000. STEP 7: Close the ledger, look back at the Buy Orders (the buybook) to see if your subtraction matches the buybook's Asset Issuer Quantity.

[Nxtblg]

PREDICTION-MARKET PROJECT: THE CONTRACTS


WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be a Democrat	PrzDemoYES	3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Democrat	PrzDemoNO	13462758571964497836
The winner will be a Republican	PrzRepuYES	11105192116122296336
The winner will NOT be a Republican	PrzRepuNO	17562138241667690734

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE


WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Hillary Clinton	PrzClinYES	18103461247825930151
The winner will NOT be Hillary Clinton	PrzClinNO	16062108613233461545
The winner will be Bernie Sanders	PrzSandYES	15971010445448648022
The winner will NOT be Bernie Sanders	PrzSandNO	7393169472806921021
The winner will be Donald Trump	PrzTrumYES	3951531817632685621
The winner will NOT be Donald Trump	PrzTrumNO	12853779174912851691

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE

PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Jeb Bush	PrzBushYES	891053894091688765
The winner will NOT be Jeb Bush	PrzBushNO	18176499361359403196
The winner will be Ben Carson	PrzCarsYES	699581945493186168
The winner will NOT be Ben Carson	PrzCarsNO	14442193037529930934
The winner will be Lincoln Chafee	PrzChafYES	8240243600188678611
The winner will NOT be Lincoln Chafee	PrzChafNO	2856367905791454844
The winner will be Chris Christie	PrzChriYES	361340211371697084
The winner will NOT be Chris Christie	PrzChriNO	7341443099208078320
The winner will be Ted Cruz	PrzCruzYES	15255653454320217443
The winner will NOT be Ted Cruz	PrzCruzNO	4362659145034786478
The winner will be Carly Fiorina	PrzFiorYES	218845233485096510
The winner will NOT be Carly Fiorina	PrzFiorNO	12139654417182210626
The winner will be Lindsey Graham	PrzGrahYES	11987715303490711663
The winner will NOT be Lindsey Graham	PrzGrahNO	4637952400346081016
The winner will be Mike Huckabee	PrzHuckYES	14282036011784425288
The winner will NOT be Mike Huckabee	PrzHuckNO	11483945606648870290
The winner will be John Kasich	PrzKasiYES	15921143325713468988
The winner will NOT be John Kasich	PrzKasiNO	8285482056231968864
The winner will be Martin O'Malley	PrzOMalYES	10154239537906813615
The winner will NOT be Martin O'Malley	PrzOMalNO	13263257593817314344
The winner will be George Pataki	PrzPataYES	8810947628250735391
The winner will NOT be George Pataki	PrzPataNO	2977075766410149229
The winner will be Rand Paul	PrzPaulYES	11890680230399399381
The winner will NOT be Rand Paul	PrzPaulNO	5494114799259218539
The winner will be Marco Rubio	PrzRubiYES	4473013418426670839
The winner will NOT be Marco Rubio	PrzRubiNO	8057247553412557941
The winner will be Rick Santorum	PrzSantYES	14374298199467269326
The winner will NOT be Rick Santorum	PrzSantNO	11500738357655331377
The winner will be Jim Webb	PrzWebbYES	1851096346482209129
The winner will NOT be Jim Webb	PrzWebbNO	16469639374523667216

POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Al Gore	PrzGoreYES	14655357796875855398
The winner will NOT be Al Gore	PrzGoreNO	16306427670007342429
The winner will be Elizabeth Warren	PrzWarrYES	13382711692371922991
The winner will NOT be Elizabeth Warren	PrzWarrNO	4531088543715258913

POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES REFUSING TO RUN:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Michael Bloomberg	PrzBlooYES	10356649501873299324
The winner will NOT be Michael Bloomberg	PrzBlooNO	9445789995839112482

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE


WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL REPUBLICAN NOMINATION?

REPUBLICAN CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Donald Trump	RNmTrumYES	16323709768774601065
The winner will NOT be Donald Trump	RNmTrumNO	4383194313613724234

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE

REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Jeb Bush	RNmBushYES	16647287349090655907
The winner will NOT be Jeb Bush	RNmBushNO	14937112718532615975
The winner will be Ben Carson	RNmCarsYES	13197148213403527755
The winner will NOT be Ben Carson	RNmCarsNO	17216746746156429111
The winner will be Chris Christie	RNmChriYES	6325565634278084269
The winner will NOT be Chris Christie	RNmChriNO	17842539522753576604
The winner will be Ted Cruz	RNmCruzYES	12598364520160155467
The winner will NOT be Ted Cruz	RNmCruzNO	13092202282997292345
The winner will be Carly Fiorina	RNmFiorYES	8215011168030827107
The winner will NOT be Carly Fiorina	RNmFiorNO	6479887297282222971
The winner will be Lindsey Graham	RNmGrahYES	10248403387914682215
The winner will NOT be Lindsey Graham	RNmGrahNO	3304089537604850502
The winner will be Mike Huckabee	RNmHuckYES	16504242674088052001
The winner will NOT be Mike Huckabee	RNmHuckNO	10119786664051316235
The winner will be John Kasich	RNmKasiYES	3910001053030408608
The winner will NOT be John Kasich	RNmKasiNO	11391628074699206424
The winner will be George Pataki	RNmPataYES	17998183380235049039
The winner will NOT be George Pataki	RNmPataNO	1918349772966811109
The winner will be Rand Paul	RNmPaulYES	15609213129954059364
The winner will NOT be Rand Paul	RNmPaulNO	15983403122195670720
The winner will be Marco Rubio	RNmRubiYES	12806123167711511227
The winner will NOT be Marco Rubio	RNmRubiNO	14461275568555863545
The winner will be Rick Santorum	RNmSantYES	11746012644226674154
The winner will NOT be Rick Santorum	RNmSantNO	12511333756921579719

POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Mitt Romney	RNmRomnYES	3831653167151593158
The winner will NOT be Mitt Romney	RNmRomnNO	16798359889475957790
The winner will be Paul Ryan	RNmRyanYES	12455531451824895642
The winner will NOT be Paul Ryan	RNmRyanNO	736302638882693537

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE


WHICH INDIVIDUAL WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION?

DEMOCRATIC CANDIATES ACTIVELY CAMPAIGNING:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Hillary Clinton	DNmClinYES	10057316969339215650
The winner will NOT be Hillary Clinton	DNmClinNO	16746247545984693609
The winner will be Bernie Sanders	DNmSandYES	16335422373730099190
The winner will NOT be Bernie Sanders	DNmSandNO	17769699363828726604

DEMOCRATIC CANDIATES CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED:

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Martin O'Malley	DNmOMalYES	10815525612930057209
The winner will NOT be Martin O'Malley	DNmOMalNO	4186892458057042865

HOW TO AUDIT: CLICK HERE


THANKS FOR CHECKING OUT THE OPEN-AUDIT PREDICTION MARKET SHADOWING PROJECT!

[Nxtblg]

HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY WINNER - PARTY - CONTRACTS

• Open up this PredictWise page, 2016 President – Winner.
• Look for the table below "2016 President – Winner (Party)"
• In that table, look for the "Derived PredictIt $" column. It's the second column from the right.
• In your Horizon wallet, select the Asset you'll be auditing from the vertical Asset Exchange bookmarks menu. Use the above table as your guide: the Asset's names are in the middle column.
• Open up a calculator.
• Look in the Asset's page for Sell Orders. There should be one there from the Asset Issuer (that's me.)
• If you're auditing a YES Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match the Derived PredictIt $ price * 100.
• If you're auditing a NO Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match 100 - (Derived PredictIt $ price * 100).
• On the right of the Asset Issuer's Sell order is a Buy Order from the same account (again, me.)
• If the Sell price is above 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order - 1).
• If the Sell price is below 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order / 2).
• Look at the Quantity of the buyback order.
• Click Asset Issuer; the link's just to the left of the Quantity.
• You'll see a page pop up that contains information on Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet.
• Click the Assets button. It's second on the left just below the blue field. (The balance inside the blue field is my reserve.)
• You'll see a table. The numbers you want to pay attention to are the Quantity (held by me) and Total Available. They're in the middle.
• Look through the list for the Asset Name of the contract you're auditing.
• (If you see more than one Asset with the name you're looking for, use the one with live sell and buy orders. You can check which one by clicking each's name.)
• Enter the Total Available into your calculator. (It'll be 10'000.) Then, subtract the Quantity.
• The answer you get is the total number of contracts out of my hands.
• Look back at the Quantity of the Buy order. It should be equal or greater than your answer.
• You're done! Thanks for auditing!

If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread.

[Nxtblg]

HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY WINNER - INDIVIDUAL - CONTRACTS

• Open up this PredictWise page, 2016 President – Winner.
• Look for the table below "2016 President – Winner (Individual)"
• In that table, look for the "Derived Market Price" column. It's the second column from the right.
• In your Horizon wallet, select the Asset you'll be auditing from the vertical Asset Exchange bookmarks menu. Use the above table as your guide: the Asset's names are in the middle column.
• Open up a calculator.
• Look in the Asset's page for Sell Orders. There should be one there from the Asset Issuer (that's me.)
• If you're auditing a YES Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match the Derived Market Price * 100.
• If you're auditing a NO Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match 100 - (Derived Market Price * 100).
• On the right of the Asset Issuer's Sell order is a Buy Order from the same account (again, me.)
• If the Sell price is above 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order - 1).
• If the Sell price is below 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order / 2).
• Look at the Quantity of the buyback order.
• Click Asset Issuer; the link's just to the left of the Quantity.
• You'll see a page pop up that contains information on Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet.
• Click the Assets button. It's second on the left just below the blue field. (The balance inside the blue field is my reserve.)
• You'll see a table. The numbers you want to pay attention to are the Quantity (held by me) and Total Available. They're in the middle.
• Look through the list for the Asset Name of the contract you're auditing.
• (If you see more than one Asset with the name you're looking for, use the one with live sell and buy orders. You can check which one by clicking each's name.)
• Enter the Total Available into your calculator. (It'll be 10'000.) Then, subtract the Quantity.
• The answer you get is the total number of contracts out of my hands.
• Look back at the Quantity of the Buy order. It should be equal or greater than your answer.
• You're done! Thanks for auditing!

If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread.

[Nxtblg]

HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY REPUBLICAN NOMINATION CONTRACTS

• Open up this PredictWise page, 2016 President – Republican Nomination.
• Look for the table below "2016 President – Republican Nomination (Winner)" and the graph.
• In that table, look for the "Derived Market Price" column. It's the second column from the right.
• In your Horizon wallet, select the Asset you'll be auditing from the vertical Asset Exchange bookmarks menu. Use the above table as your guide: the Asset's names are in the middle column.
• Open up a calculator.
• Look in the Asset's page for Sell Orders. There should be one there from the Asset Issuer (that's me.)
• If you're auditing a YES Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match the Derived Market Price * 100.
• If you're auditing a NO Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match 100 - (Derived Market Price * 100).
• On the right of the Asset Issuer's Sell order is a Buy Order from the same account (again, me.)
• If the Sell price is above 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order - 1).
• If the Sell price is below 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order / 2).
• Look at the Quantity of the buyback order.
• Click Asset Issuer; the link's just to the left of the Quantity.
• You'll see a page pop up that contains information on Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet.
• Click the Assets button. It's second on the left just below the blue field. (The balance inside the blue field is my reserve.)
• You'll see a table. The numbers you want to pay attention to are the Quantity (held by me) and Total Available. They're in the middle.
• Look through the list for the Asset Name of the contract you're auditing.
• (If you see more than one Asset with the name you're looking for, use the one with live sell and buy orders. You can check which one by clicking each's name.)
• Enter the Total Available into your calculator. (It'll be 10'000.) Then, subtract the Quantity.
• The answer you get is the total number of contracts out of my hands.
• Look back at the Quantity of the Buy order. It should be equal or greater than your answer.
• You're done! Thanks for auditing!

If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread.

[Nxtblg]

HOW TO AUDIT THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENCY DEMOCRATIC NOMINATION CONTRACTS :

• Open up this PredictWise page, 2016 President – Democratic Nomination.
• Look for the table below "2016 President – Democratic Nomination (Winner)" and the graph.
• In that table, look for the "Derived Market Price" column. It's the second column from the right.
• In your Horizon wallet, select the Asset you'll be auditing from the vertical Asset Exchange bookmarks menu. Use the above table as your guide: the Asset's names are in the middle column.
• Open up a calculator.
• Look in the Asset's page for Sell Orders. There should be one there from the Asset Issuer (that's me.)
• If you're auditing a YES Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match the Derived Market Price * 100.
• If you're auditing a NO Asset, the price of the Asset Issuer sell order should match 100 - (Derived Market Price * 100).
• On the right of the Asset Issuer's Sell order is a Buy Order from the same account (again, me.)
• If the Sell price is above 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order - 1).
• If the Sell price is below 1 HZ, the Buy order's price should be (Sell Order / 2).
• Look at the Quantity of the buyback order.
• Click Asset Issuer; the link's just to the left of the Quantity.
• You'll see a page pop up that contains information on Nxtblg Main HZ Wallet.
• Click the Assets button. It's second on the left just below the blue field. (The balance inside the blue field is my reserve.)
• You'll see a table. The numbers you want to pay attention to are the Quantity (held by me) and Total Available. They're in the middle.
• Look through the list for the Asset Name of the contract you're auditing.
• (If you see more than one Asset with the name you're looking for, use the one with live sell and buy orders. You can check which one by clicking each's name.)
• Enter the Total Available into your calculator. (It'll be 10'000.) Then, subtract the Quantity.
• The answer you get is the total number of contracts out of my hands.
• Look back at the Quantity of the Buy order. It should be equal or greater than your answer.
• You're done! Thanks for auditing!

If one of these numbers doesn't check out, please let me know in this thread.

[mike34]

had a look at this great interesting work as usual from you I really do have to find the time to learn more about all the things that horizon can do
And all the things you have set up for it.

[Nxtblg]

had a look at this great interesting work as usual from you I really do have to find the time to learn more about all the things that horizon can do
And all the things you have set up for it.

Thanks a lot! It'll be a lot of fun - and as Ben Franklin was reputed to say, "What use is a newborn baby?"

I'm very glad you like "baby"!

[Nxtblg]

HEADS UP, EVERYONE: In the "Which Individual Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Election?" category of the contracts list, Michael Bloomberg appears in the "Not Declared Yet" category:

POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Michael Bloomberg	PrzBlooYES	10356649501873299324
The winner will NOT be Michael Bloomberg	PrzBlooNO	9445789995839112482

[etc]

Just now, I can across this new item claiming that Michael Bloomberg is going to announce that he's running.

Michael Bloomberg is planning a run for the U.S. presidency that would begin as early as next week.

A source with knowledge of company affairs at Bloomberg L.P., told Anadolu Agency that said senior officials at offices worldwide were clearing schedules for meetings to discuss a sudden change in the management structure at the company.

The source, who spoke to AA on condition of anonymity, was not authorized to discuss company matters on the record.

The multibillionaire owner of Bloomberg L.P. is preparing to hand over his responsibilities at the financial data and media company ahead of an announcement after Super Tuesday on March 1, a key date in the nomination process for the Republican and Democratic parties.

Bloomberg was planning to make his announcement on or after Super Tuesday, the source said.

Bloomberg, who distanced himself from his company in a similar fashion when he was elected mayor of New York City, has been rumored to be planning an independent presidential campaign for months....

Interestingly, the contracts have hardly budged. PrzBlooYES, ID 10356649501873299324 , moved up only slightly from 1.2; it's now stuck at 1.4 HZ. This matches PredictWise's derived market price of $0.014 in Mr. Bloomberg's entry for "2016 Presidential Election – Winner (Individual)". It's in the middle of the 2016 President – Winner page.

Don't believe my numbers? Audit It!

If the above speculation turns into a definitive announcement, I'll move both YES and NO contracts for Mike Bloomberg into the "Presidential Candidates Actively Campaigning" list.

The race will get really interesting if Mr. Bloomberg does declare. Word is, he's getting in the race in part because he "expressed frustration about how the present presidential campaign is dominated by populist figures such as Donald Trump for the Republicans and the Democrats’ Bernie Sanders."

Mr. Bloomberg is much richer than Donald Trump. If he follows through, we'll see a real "Battle of the Billionaires" this year.

And it's going to be a battle, all right! Just look at the reactions on this thread at the premiere rightwing forum Free Republic!

[Nxtblg]

Ben Carson just suspended his campaign, so I've moved his contracts to the respective "Campaign Suspended" categories. He fought the good fight, all right, but his fighting days are now suspended.

You'll see the change in the above list.

[Nxtblg]

ANOTHER HEADS UP, EVERYONE: Because the prediction markets are now buzzing about the possibility of a brokered Republican convention, PredictWise has added two new long-shot candidates in the "2016 President – Republican Nomination" list.

These two names are pols who have not declared, at least not yet, but are rumoured to have a longshot shot at getting the nom as a compromise candidate. The new long-shot contendas are Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

Accordingly, I've created four new Assets and have added them to the "Which Individual Will Win The 2016 U.S. Presidential Republican Nomination?" category of the contracts list. Both of them appear in the new "Not Declared Yet" subcategory:

POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES, NOT DECLARED (YET):

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be Mitt Romney	RNmRomnYES	3831653167151593158
The winner will NOT be Mitt Romney	RNmRomnNO	16798359889475957790
The winner will be Paul Ryan	RNmRyanYES	12455531451824895642
The winner will NOT be Paul Ryan	RNmRyanNO	736302638882693537

As I indicated above, repeatedly, the Yes contracts for each are real long-shots. As I write this, RNmRomnYES - ID 3831653167151593158 - is only 1.2.  RNmRomnYES - ID 12455531451824895642 - is only 1.5. Both match PredictWise's numbers.

Don't believe my numbers? Audit It!

The fate of these new contracts do hang upon a) a brokered convention in which no-one gets a majority of the delegates; b) one of the two being accepted as a compromise candidate to break a deadlock.

[altsheets]

Just noticed a small copy paste error ...

The winner will be a Democrat PrzDemoYES  3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Democrat PrzDemoNO 13462758571964497836
The winner will be a Republican PrzRepuYES  3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Republican PrzRepuNO 13462758571964497836

... but actually, when I bought the assets last week,
my internal error correction unit ... didn't notice.

[Nxtblg]

Just noticed a small copy paste error ...

The winner will be a Democrat PrzDemoYES  3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Democrat PrzDemoNO 13462758571964497836
The winner will be a Republican PrzRepuYES  3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Republican PrzRepuNO 13462758571964497836

... but actually, when I bought the assets last week,
my internal error correction unit ... didn't notice.

Thank You!! I just corrected it and another error.

Here's the corrected section:

WHICH PARTY WILL WIN THE 2016 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION?

...............Contract_Prediction...............	Asset_Name...............	Asset_ID...............
The winner will be a Democrat	PrzDemoYES	3564868636547103274
The winner will NOT be a Democrat	PrzDemoNO	13462758571964497836
The winner will be a Republican	PrzRepuYES	11105192116122296336
The winner will NOT be a Republican	PrzRepuNO	17562138241667690734

[Nxtblg]

Just now, I can across this new item claiming that Michael Bloomberg is going to announce that he's running.

This proved to a false lead. Just now, Michael Bloomberg announced that he is not running. Source: New York Times. The article says that he feared that his candidacy would only help Donald Trump (which is in line with what the handicappers figured out.)

Accordingly, I just put his name in a new category, coloured red like the candidates who have suspended their campaigns, called "POTENTIAL PRESIDENTIAL CANDIATES REFUSING TO RUN". You'll see the change in the contracts list.

[pol5]

good job . I carefully watch this project. Good luck to you       

[Nxtblg]

good job . I carefully watch this project. Good luck to you       

Thanks a lot! Happy auditing.

[Nxtblg]

This just in: After his loss in Florida, Marco Rubio has suspended his campaign. Source: his speech live on CNN, plushere. Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list.

[Nxtblg]

Just got the "Cruz News." Ted Cruz is suspending his campaign. Source: Politico. Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list.

[Nxtblg]

John Kasich has just dropped out.. Source: CNBC. Accordingly, I moved his contracts for both the Republican nomination and the Presidency to the CAMPAIGN SUSPENDED category in each. You'll see the changes in the contracts list.

This change leaves only Donald Trump in the Republican Candidates Actively Campaigning category. It also means that Trump is almost certainly going to be the Republican candidate. However, as specified by the contract terms, the payout at 100 will not be made until the Republican convention formally nominates him in Cleveland.