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February 09, 2016, 08:34:25 AM |
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Ran across an article today from CIPRAS PRESS editor John Cunningham entitled "The Global Credit Bomb = Central Banking Terrorism"
It is from linkedin so I won't link to it, but search author / title and get it on there that way.
The title of this thread is a statement used throughout the piece. Written in January it makes a series of points and near term predictions that have been pretty good.
Before that, the premise is that Global Debt is a problem. Despite the DotCom and GFC, credit growth has never stopped accelerating because that is the only way to maintain this financial system. Outstanding global credit growth (in USD, Yen and Euro but NOT INCLUDING China) went from around $27 trillion (DotCom bust) to $77 trillion (GFC) to around $102 trillion now.
Nothing has changed.
Sovereign Debt is taxpayer debt, and a whole lot of it was transferred from the private sector (banks) to the public sector (governments) via bailouts in 2008.
Now onto the predictions of January 13:
US
- Debt problem will surface in equities first. S & P to drop from 1940 to 1820, then bounce back to 1940. Then in Feb, collapse below 1820
- Tech bubble to implode in 2016
- 2s10s US Treasuries to go to yielding 107bps, the 07/08 lows
JAPAN
- Negative rates to be announced
- Yen to go from 122 to 115
- At 115 it shows a correlation between Yen and S&P
EUROPE
- Deutsche Bank will hit January 2009 lows
- Watch Deutsche Bank CDS: at 440-450 level it signals a banking crisis
CHINA
- Govt will set a rate and get a rate
- Media will say all is OK
- Yuan will devalue to 6.8 by end of 2016
OIL
- Will stabilise at $30
- Watch Chesapeake and other frackers; bankruptcies ahead.
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