Diff thread Feb 7 to Feb 19? picks are closed.

[philipma1957]

 Just starting thread. Kexkey won last contest.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1341763.0


picks closed for now

+13.1 = blindminer    < notice format lets me click and drag easy

This round it must be inside your range  so the pick above +13.1  gives you +13.10 to +13.19

I have altered eligibility rules only one account person but the account no longer need to be before 10-31-2015

the account needs to be on or  before 12-1-2015.

it need 30 posts minimum and I will read the posts to see if they make sense.

I have 0.8 in funds to give away this gets us very close to the ½ ing



Picks open at block 1416
Picks close at block  816

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   172,797,636,370 (+19.90%)
Adjust time:   After 1952 Blocks, About 12.9 days -------------- open at 1416  close at 816
Hashrate(?):   1,117,472,325 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.5 minutes
3 blocks: 28.5 minutes
6 blocks: 57.0 minutes
Updated:   9:5 (1.6 minutes ago)









below was the last set of picks.

so a pick in this round would look like the ones below



- 1.2 = philipma1957  >>>>>>  first pick if it wins i will roll it back in


 +6.9 = fr4nkthetank
 +8.0  = ACAB
 +8.1  = vapourminer
 +9.0  =  lolxxxx
 +9.1  = adaseb
 +9.6  = Psi
+10.0 =  Swordsoffreedom
+10.5 = pusttiu

+10.9 = indiemax

+11.0 = Lituation
+11.5 = Last of the V8s
+11.8 = wpt1wpt1
+11.9 = sebbysebbybinx
+12.0 = cakir
+12.1 = valkir
+12.7 = flikflak
+12.9 = tertius993
+13.1 = blindminer

+13.3 = edonkey
+13.5 = HerbPean
+14.1 = alfacro
+14.4 = vortexz
+14.5 = d57heinz
+14.8 = alh
+15.0 = ingiltere
+15.3 = Tmdz
+15.5 = wlefever
+15.9 = Biodom
+16.0 = zebedee
+16.1 = VirosaGITS
+16.2 = kama
+16.4 = Notlist3d
+16.5 = mwizard
+17.0 = ezeminer
+17.5 = tlhIlwI
+18.0 = DanDan  
+18.7 = lanfeusst
+18.8 = radiumsoup
+19.0 = RichBC
+19.5 = mavericklm
+19.9 = Kexkey
+20.9 = skuser

[1713526324]

1713526324

[philipma1957]

Here are previous jumps below:


      ------------Difficulty History-------

Date-------   Difficulty---------   Change ----   Hash Rate
Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s


Jan 26 2016   120,033,340,651   5.89%   859,232,121 GH/s
Jan 13 2016   113,354,299,801   9.12%   811,421,684 GH/s
Dec 31 2015   103,880,340,815   11.16%   743,604,444 GH/s
Dec 18 2015   93,448,670,796    - -   18.14%   668,931,642 GH/s
Dec 06 2015   79,102,380,900    8.77%   566,236,898 GH/s
Nov 24 2015   72,722,780,643    10.44%   520,569,941 GH/s
Nov 11 2015   65,848,255,180    ----  5.77%   471,360,171 GH/s
Oct 29 2015   62,253,982,450    2.25%   445,631,364 GH/s
Oct 15 2015   60,883,825,480    0.12%   435,823,399 GH/s
Oct 01 2015   60,813,224,039    2.49%   435,318,014 GH/s
Sep 17 2015   59,335,351,234    4.17%   424,738,988 GH/s
Sep 04 2015   56,957,648,455    4.98%   407,718,729 GH/s
Aug 22 2015   54,256,630,328    2.95%   388,384,088 GH/s
Aug 08 2015   52,699,842,409    0.81%   377,240,166 GH/s
Jul 25 2015   52,278,304,846    2.35%   374,222,683 GH/s
Jul 11 2015   51,076,366,303    3.39%   365,618,871 GH/s
Jun 28 2015   49,402,014,931    -0.58%   353,633,397 GH/s
Jun 14 2015   49,692,386,355    4.42%   355,711,957 GH/s
May 31 2015   47,589,591,154    -2.50%   340,659,563 GH/s
May 17 2015   48,807,487,245    2.44%   349,377,603 GH/s
May 03 2015   47,643,398,018    0.07%   341,044,727 GH/s
Apr 19 2015   47,610,564,513    -3.71%   340,809,696 GH/s
Apr 05 2015   49,446,390,688    5.84%   353,951,052 GH/s
Mar 22 2015   46,717,549,645    -1.50%   334,417,246 GH/s
Mar 08 2015   47,427,554,951    1.59%   339,499,662 GH/s
Feb 22 2015   46,684,376,317    5.01%   334,179,783 GH/s
Feb 09 2015   44,455,415,962    7.71%   318,224,263 GH/s
Jan 27 2015   41,272,873,895    -6.14%   295,442,739 GH/s
Jan 12 2015   43,971,662,056    8.20%   314,761,417 GH/s
Dec 30 2014   40,640,955,017    3.00%   290,919,288 GH/s
Dec 17 2014   39,457,671,307    -1.37%   282,449,013 GH/s
Dec 02 2014   40,007,470,271    -0.73%   286,384,627 GH/s
Nov 18 2014   40,300,030,328    1.76%   288,478,854 GH/s
Nov 05 2014   39,603,666,252    10.05%   283,494,086 GH/s
Oct 23 2014   35,985,640,265    2.81%   257,595,247 GH/s
Oct 09 2014   35,002,482,026    0.98%   250,557,526 GH/s
Sep 25 2014   34,661,425,924    16.20%   248,116,151 GH/s
Sep 13 2014   29,829,733,124    8.75%   213,529,547 GH/s
Aug 31 2014   27,428,630,902    15.03%   196,341,788 GH/s
Aug 19 2014   23,844,670,039    20.86%   170,686,797 GH/s
Aug 08 2014   19,729,645,941    5.30%   141,230,307 GH/s
Jul 25 2014   18,736,441,558    8.08%   134,120,673 GH/s
Jul 12 2014   17,336,316,979    3.08%   124,098,191 GH/s
Jun 29 2014   16,818,461,371    24.93%   120,391,236 GH/s
Jun 18 2014   13,462,580,115    14.51%   96,368,902 GH/s
Jun 05 2014   11,756,551,917    12.44%   84,156,677 GH/s
May 24 2014   10,455,720,138    18.10%   74,844,960 GH/s
May 12 2014   8,853,416,309      10.66%   63,375,223 GH/s
© 2013-2014 BitcoinWisdom.com

[wheelz1200]

i would like to enter.  when can i give you my pick?

[HerbPean]

i would like to enter.  when can i give you my pick?

All the info is in the first thread.

Picks open at block 1416
Picks close at block  816

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom Starting the week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    174,664,592,904 (+21.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1907 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,156,850,727 GH/s


Price around 376.  Hopefully price does a little jump during this difficulty that would be nice.

[philipma1957]

Bitwisdom Starting the week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    174,664,592,904 (+21.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1907 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,156,850,727 GH/s


Price around 376.  Hopefully price does a little jump during this difficulty that would be nice.

It  is pretty obvious that some very big farms are building up here.  I still find that bitmaintech is holding on to more then 24,000 coins

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

https://blockchain.info/address/1AgtvfXJSHnxS2xKvprTYxfViWBkiMgdf1


between the addresses above.

[Tmdz]

Crazy how they have millions in a single btc address wow.  I would be spreading my funds around in a bunch of addys in case something happened...


Anyway mining is still going nuts and there is no ceiling in sight, havling is not that far off either.  I would call this a bit of a hash war seeing the huge amounts of network power going online.  So I guess the mega miners claim their spot in the network and they have such cheap electricity and efficient chips that they can take the diff increase and then lose half their revenue at halving. 

[philipma1957]

Crazy how they have millions in a single btc address wow.  I would be spreading my funds around in a bunch of addys in case something happened...


Anyway mining is still going nuts and there is no ceiling in sight, havling is not that far off either.  I would call this a bit of a hash war seeing the huge amounts of network power going online.  So I guess the mega miners claim their spot in the network and they have such cheap electricity and efficient chips that they can take the diff increase and then lose half their revenue at halving.  

Right now I do not know what to guess.

But I am a 10-12 thousand usd guy.

My mix is 1/3 in coins 1/3 in gear 1/3 cash.

I was going to do a third group buy on the avalon6s but I am not so sure.

[alh]

I was thinking about Phillip's 3rd Avalon6 group buy, but things are looking quite "un-rosy" for me. My electricity price of about $.10/KWh is just not going to cut it anymore. I'll throttle my SP20 down a bit further, but that's just a month or two delaying action. 

If the two folks that seem to know what's up with Bitfury are right, and not outright lying, Bitfury has NOT received their first full wafer of 14nm chips (i.e. something larger than samples). Supposedly they get those late this month. That means we have not yet seen a spike resulting from a significant deployment of Bitfury 14nm ASICs.

The most recent hash rate increases are clearly real and likely here to stay. While it would be nice to think the most recent 20% increase will be followed by a small one, I see hash rate, and hence difficulty rising right on up to the halving. I don't expect that they will all be 20%, but there aren't any negative changes on the horizon that I see. 

Just one mans speculation late on a Sunday afternoon in Minnesota.

[adaseb]

You guys see the huge spike on Bitcoinwisdom?

Also looks like we finished again at +21%, probably 50% of the day was on the old diff however.

[ezeminer]

You guys see the huge spike on Bitcoinwisdom?

Also looks like we finished again at +21%, probably 50% of the day was on the old diff however.

It has been hovering at 20-21% all day, so this might be another scary adjustment. I don't see under 10% happening this change.

Miners are biting a bullet right now, and it isn't getting any easier 

[philipma1957]

You guys see the huge spike on Bitcoinwisdom?

Also looks like we finished again at +21%, probably 50% of the day was on the old diff however.

It has been hovering at 20-21% all day, so this might be another scary adjustment. I don't see under 10% happening this change.

Miners are biting a bullet right now, and it isn't getting any easier 

These are major farms being tossed up.

If bitfury is not doing this then it will happen again when they do it.

We are looking at 1600 ph real fast . Maybe more like 2000 ph.

[notlist3d]

Bitwisdom Starting the week:

Bitcoin Difficulty:    144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:    174,664,592,904 (+21.20%)
Adjust time:    After 1907 Blocks, About 12.3 days
Hashrate(?):    1,156,850,727 GH/s


Price around 376.  Hopefully price does a little jump during this difficulty that would be nice.

It  is pretty obvious that some very big farms are building up here.  I still find that bitmaintech is holding on to more then 24,000 coins

https://blockchain.info/address/1KwA4fS4uVuCNjCtMivE7m5ATbv93UZg8V

https://blockchain.info/address/1AgtvfXJSHnxS2xKvprTYxfViWBkiMgdf1


between the addresses above.

Interesting on them holding.  I like that much better then trading all of them in.  That is my fear is these new operations need to pay off cost's and dump every single bit into fiat.

It would keep price down if it is being sold in massive quantity.  I hope they all hold a decent amount though vs trading for fiat on all.


One thing I also wonder is antpool keeps tx fees.  Anyone have an idea what address they go to or how much they have made through just holding tx fees?

[RichBC]

So the Holiday has started but will there be any respite? I am far from certain and the early indications are not giving much away. We had a +20% increase but I think the run rate going out of the period was around +30% so I think the starting point is for this period is around +10%. Itnow depends on when and how much Hash get's added? If I had to guess now I would go for +15%.  As they say, we will see.


Rich

[d57heinz]

Having given this a bit more thought i now know for certain why they throttled on and off.   out of the Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s   as reported by bitcoinwisdom  we can look at the bitcoinity graph and add up china pools.. they have in total 895 ph/1031 ph so that is pushing 87% of the network now

HaD they turned that all on at once it would have def 51% the network or worse.. when all this started to come online we werent even close to 500 peta yet.  

ALSO i dont know the math behind it exatcly but im sure it made them more coins by turning on in phases rather than just all at once.  Looks like maybe a war between china pools this time LMAO

Best Regards
d57heinz

[philipma1957]

Having given this a bit more thought i now know for certain why they throttled on and off.   out of the Feb 07 2016   144,116,447,847   20.06%   1,031,625,717 GH/s   as reported by bitcoinwisdom  we can look at the bitcoinity graph and add up china pools.. they have in total 895 ph/1031 ph so that is pushing 87% of the network now

HaD they turned that all on at once it would have def 51% the network or worse.. when all this started to come online we werent even close to 500 peta yet.  

ALSO i dont know the math behind it exatcly but im sure it made them more coins by turning on in phases rather than just all at once.  Looks like maybe a war between china pools this time LMAO

Best Regards
d57heinz

well the see saw stopped but now it is just a hill going upwards! LOL!

Well I paused the group buy for avalon6's as they don't make a lot of sense to buy at the moment.

My mix is ⅓ gear ⅓ coins ⅓ cash.  and I will mine and watch results for a while.


https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty


Bitcoin Difficulty:   144,116,447,847
Estimated Next Difficulty:   173,409,162,590 (+20.33%)
Adjust time:   After 1719 Blocks, About 11.0 days
Hashrate(?):   1,164,486,252 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):   
1 block: 9.2 minutes
3 blocks: 27.6 minutes
6 blocks: 55.2 minutes
Updated:   19:35 (1.8 minutes ago)


Oh 1 sane day  148 blocks today  the lowest total since jan 22 or 21

https://blockchain.info/blocks/1454891830291

397448 (Main Chain)   2016-02-08 23:47:48
397301 (Main Chain)   2016-02-08 00:07:57


148 the best day since Jan 21


 http://btc.blockr.io/charts

[notlist3d]

The thing to consider to is we are gaining during a Chinese holiday.  I was not expecting that.  I thought during holiday we might get a little bit of a slow down.

I see two possibilities either people worked through it which is possible, but not very likely.  Or possibly some operations put in a lot knowing there was a holiday.   I hope it's the second one and they planned extra hash for holiday,  and maybe after it will slow down on next difficulty. 

Or we have a new scary high bar on difficulty changes.  One would think close to 20 is not sustainable.   I don't know what to think on some of it.

[Mikestang]

Whatever the reason, 20% plus difficulty jumps and sub-$380 BTC prices make me a sad panda.  I was also expecting a slow down for Lunar New Year, but it's like difficulty is on a one way rocket ride to the moon...

[notlist3d]

Whatever the reason, 20% plus difficulty jumps and sub-$380 BTC prices make me a sad panda.  I was also expecting a slow down for Lunar New Year, but it's like difficulty is on a one way rocket ride to the moon...

I  wonder if these mines got the holiday's off looking at blocks.  If they did they put in some machines before holiday that is for sure.   I keep hoping the next one will be better.  But I am unsure at this point what  to expect.

[RichBC]

Hate to say this but Holiday or not this one is looking pretty horrid. It is of course too early to see a reliable trend as we have only had one full Day but...

We came into the period with a surplus after the correction of about +10%, so that was always going to be the minimum increase. The run rate of all the Blocks so far this period is +16% and increasing. The run rate half way through Today is twice that at +32%, so still plenty of scope for variance but the signs are that more hash has already been added and plenty of time to add more. We will know more by the end of the Day.


Rich