I want you to have a look at this graph

[Jack of Diamonds]

$31 is overvalue at the current difficulty. I predicted last week that this Friday would end at $19-$22. However I don't see a $25 closing entirely impossible.

$30 will stabilize at around 800k to 1m difficulty.

[DrSammyD]

Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.

My thought's exactly. When I saw the price go up last night, I was like, please come down, please come down, I want to buy more.

[billyjoeallen]

Bitcoin is trading at 25.81 as the last trade right now. I seems like the value is going down to stabilize the crazy growth in the past week. We'll probably see a burst as people come home from work later in the day (US). It might just be prime buying time right now.

My thought's exactly. When I saw the price go up last night, I was like, please come down, please come down, I want to buy more.

me too! I sent a wire transfer this afternoon. I'm praying it stays below thirty until I can buy.

[kiwiasian]

Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...

Sigh, look at the x axis. My graph started on July 2010, yours started at the beginning of 2011.

[BombaUcigasa]

Sigh, look at the x axis. My graph started on July 2010, yours started at the beginning of 2011.

Herp derp, setting different graph parameteres on bitcoincharts...



My argument still stands.

[ahtremblay]

And tell me with a serious face that the Bitcoin economy is not going to crash.

Look at the same thing on a logarithmic scale.

Look at the same thing upside down.

[Jaime Frontero]

ah.

so the "hockey stick" graph - in re global warming - will also be crashing down, and the world will be just fine?

because you don't like such uninterrupted uptrends?

because it doesn't fit with your understanding of... what?

no.

[clickbangdone]

ah.

so the "hockey stick" graph - in re global warming - will also be crashing down, and the world will be just fine?

because you don't like such uninterrupted uptrends?

because it doesn't fit with your understanding of... what?

no.

Probably because that graph is also fueled by speculation

[Freakin]

$31 is overvalue at the current difficulty. I predicted last week that this Friday would end at $19-$22. However I don't see a $25 closing entirely impossible.

$30 will stabilize at around 800k to 1m difficulty.

yeah i was guessing a little higher, around 22-24, but that is discounting the fact that upcoming difficulty change is baked into current price. 

I think around 25-26 is about right currently, though that doesn't mean it won't shoot up another $4 overnight and look like a washboard by 3PM tomorrow

[Kn1ghT]

MA's show uptrend with baseline currently nearing $20, the MA's have not crossed yet to signal a correctional pullback

RSI shows overbought @ 88.75(currently). Above 70 is overbought, above 50 is uptrend.

MACD shows the push above the moving averages, as time moves on when higher prices are made, but lower high's on MACD post, that will signal a divergence and prices should signal a pullback to the MA's in the near future.

ADX shows uptrend, althou weaker.

based on indicators, currently @ $30 the pair might be hitting an overbought barrier, and may pull back to the ~$20 area where it will find support. If after it fails to break new highs. If this is the case, I would expect it to dance in this range for some time, but ultimately trend upwards.

[imperi]

I think you guys might be underestimating the demand for Bitcoins. It doesn't necessarily have to match difficulty if the demand is great enough. Then again, you could be right.

[piuk]

50*6*24 = 7,200 coins mined per day

7200 * 365 = 2,628,000 more coins in circulation by the end of the year, 40% more coins in circulation by the end of the year.

That means all holders today will have a 40% less stake in bitcoins by the end of the year. So $216,000 of new demand per day is needed per day to keep the current market price. When the hype passes and bitcoins can no longer promise 100% returns in a few days it will be much more difficult to keep that demand up.

[Ummon]

$31 is overvalue at the current difficulty. I predicted last week that this Friday would end at $19-$22. However I don't see a $25 closing entirely impossible.

$30 will stabilize at around 800k to 1m difficulty.

There is no correlation between difficulty and bitcoin value against USD, this ratio depends only from the supply and the demand over the different markets. The difficulty is only a way to regulate the newly created bitcoins.

[mimarob]

I did an estimate of the total hardware investments made in mining. My card does 300 MHash/s. With it I can mine about 0.50 BTC a day. The average total is 50 BTC every 10 minutes. This means that there is a total mining capacity corresponding to 100*6*24 = 14400 cards of this type or abt. 22 million dollars. Double that for costs ...for cheaper pc hardware => $44 million. The speculative value of bitcoins now is 129000*50*27.5 = 177 MUSD. Electricity costs are harder to calculate but are the smaller part of the cost right now. So the bitcoins are right now valued to abt three-four times the cost invested.

[speeder]

I did an estimate of the total hardware investments made in mining. My card does 300 MHash/s. With it I can mine about 0.50 BTC a day. The average total is 50 BTC every 10 minutes. This means that there is a total mining capacity corresponding to 100*6*24 = 14400 cards of this type or abt. 22 million dollars. Double that for costs ...for cheaper pc hardware => $44 million. The speculative value of bitcoins now is 129000*50*27.5 = 177 MUSD. Electricity costs are harder to calculate but are the smaller part of the cost right now. So the bitcoins are right now valued to abt three-four times the cost invested.

You are assuming the wealth of the economy comes only from mining.

Several people are already selling not only goods, but services with bitcoin, this injects wealth into it.

For example, I already bought ads, silver bars, online cassino chips, company shares, some misc services... all of that with bitcoins, and I also sell services for bitcoins.

The service I do, in exchange of bitcoin, exchange the value of my service into the economy, creation wealth.

[BombaUcigasa]

There is no correlation between difficulty and bitcoin value against USD, this ratio depends only from the supply and the demand over the different markets. The difficulty is only a way to regulate the newly created bitcoins.

Are you sure?! It seems to me that there is...

[speeder]

If you pay attention, the difficulty graph look like the price graph shifted...

Thus now it is sorta clear to me, that price drives difficulty (and not the other way around)

[sketchman]

Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?width=743&m=mtgoxUSD&k=&r=180&i=&c=0&s=&e=&Prev=&Next=&v=0&cv=0&ps=0&l=1&p=0&t=S&b=&a1=&m1=10&a2=&m2=25&x=0&i1=&i2=&i3=&i4=&SubmitButton=Draw&

By scaling up the value between lines like that, you're posting a deliberately misleading graph.

[BombaUcigasa]

If you pay attention, the difficulty graph look like the price graph shifted...

Thus now it is sorta clear to me, that price drives difficulty (and not the other way around)

It's called lagged correlation. When one factor influences another by a specified timeframe (such as CO2 emissions and temperature increases in subsequent decades). The price and difficulty affect each-other in a loop. The price goes higher, more people mine, difficulty increases too much. Difficulty increases, people buy instead of mining, price goes higher.

[BombaUcigasa]

Your chart is obviously wrong, use the correct version next time...

By scaling up the value between lines like that, you're posting a deliberately misleading graph.

I'm sorry if it's misleading to you. It's called "logarithmic scale" and it applies to all economy processes. The trend you see here will continue, until some point, the linear graph is useless from the perspective of someone who wants to look into the future.

Did you study economics in your lifetime by any chance?