Next Freicoin Difficulty

[bushstar]

I've been looking at the Freicoin difficulty to predict what it will be at the next change. I've pulled data from the Freicoin hashrate graphs shown below.


Source: http://www.freicoin.org/freicoin-hash-rate-graph-t82.html

I got together the date of the difficulty change and the second chart above to check the hashrate at the point of change. The first chart is logarithmic.

Date of change - First block after change - Difficulty - Approx Hashrate
2013-01-03 15:56:56 - 14,112 - 9,772 - 104Gh/s
2012-12-28 19:07:08 - 12,096 - 4,096 - 52Gh/s
2012-12-25 13:25:15 - 10,080 - 1,024 - 30Gh/s
2012-12-23 18:36:44 - 8,064 - 256 - 7Gh/s

Difficulty changes every 2016 blocks so we can expect the next change at 16,128. The current hashrate is 57Gh/s and if this keeps going we can expect a new difficulty around 4,096. The network is progressing at around 100 blocks a day so we should expect this change in 10 days time on the 24th January.

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[tacotime]

It's merge minable... anyone who is running a private pool probably just added it as a merge mined currency.  It's free extra money if you're already mining BTC.

[bushstar]

It's merge minable... anyone who is running a private pool probably just added it as a merge mined currency.  It's free extra money if you're already mining BTC.

Not yet it's not. Here's a quote from maaku.

Any merge-mined variant of FRC would be a fork, and the blocks mined would be orphaned from the main chain, and anyone transacting on both chains would be in danger of having their coins stolen.

There has been discussion on IRC, our forums, and elsewhere on the subject of merged mining, and do intent to fully support at the appropriate time.

[nethead]

maaku is simply afraid that his "idea" will be stolen, thats why he always cryies

[FuzzyBear]

Thank you bushstar for this i was wondering what the next freicoin diff was gonna be and when we would see it so you nailed 2 birds with one stone

[galambo]

Good job, Bushstar. I love seeing what data mining can be done on Freicoin.

[crazy_rabbit]

It's merge minable... anyone who is running a private pool probably just added it as a merge mined currency.  It's free extra money if you're already mining BTC.

Not yet it's not. Here's a quote from maaku.

Any merge-mined variant of FRC would be a fork, and the blocks mined would be orphaned from the main chain, and anyone transacting on both chains would be in danger of having their coins stolen.

There has been discussion on IRC, our forums, and elsewhere on the subject of merged mining, and do intent to fully support at the appropriate time.

But if someone were to Merge-Mine it, would it really be a fork? When people started merge mining NMC it didn't fork the chain, right? So why FRC?

[bushstar]

It can be patched to support merge mining but that requires a fork the same as Namecoin did.

[bushstar]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

[Jorgeminator]

The latest 144-block-set was solved at an average rate of 39.77 GH/s, good guess bushstar!

[FuzzyBear]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

So my calculations put it on 13 days till next difficulty adjustment (29th jan) ... and difficulty should be in the 3,000-4,000 mark??

[bushstar]

It's difficult to tell as the difficulty went up times four until we got our current difficulty of 9772. The difficulties went like this...

1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, 9772.

So I'm not sure where we'll end up circa 29th Jan. Perhaps as you say or either 1024 or 4096.

[Jorgeminator]

It's difficult to tell as the difficulty went up times four until we got our current difficulty of 9772. The difficulties went like this...

1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096, 9772.

So I'm not sure where we'll end up circa 29th Jan. Perhaps as you say or either 1024 or 4096.

There's no reason for it to be exactly 1024 or 4096. Actually, with a huge amount of luck it could be exactly 4096, but 1024 is out of range for the next retarget since the difficulty will at most be divided by 4 => 2443.

[bushstar]

So I'm guessing that the most it can go up in difficulty a time is four times the current difficulty? Which explains why we had the 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096 difficulties from the start.

[Jorgeminator]

So I'm guessing that the most it can go up in difficulty a time is four times the current difficulty? Which explains why we had the 1, 4, 16, 64, 256, 1024, 4096 difficulties from the start.

Exactly.

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Target
https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Difficulty

[galambo]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

That's very surprising to read Coinotron only gets 1/5 blocks.

The p2pool is has a decent hashrate.

[meebs]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

That's very surprising to read Coinotron only gets 1/5 blocks.

The p2pool is has a decent hashrate.

Why is that surprising?

coinotron has only had 6-9gh/s on their FRC pool for a week now.

[meebs]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

So my calculations put it on 13 days till next difficulty adjustment (29th jan) ... and difficulty should be in the 3,000-4,000 mark??

this kind of thing makes me REALLY glad that TRC has very quick difficulty readjustment. if it takes 1-2 months for a coin to come back down after a drastic difficulty overshoot it can be quite a damper on miner interest in the coin.. while if its only 2-4 hours then its meh.. just wait a little bit.

[bushstar]

With all the major alts going down in value it seems that the newer alts are being parked for better days.

As far as I can tell the network hash rate for FRC is now around 6GH and the network is getting through around 18 blocks a day. This is going to put the next difficulty change in 25 days time.

[crazy_rabbit]

It seems that the network has slowed down some more. There are about 60 blocks being found a day at the moment. Looking at Coinotron over the last 19 blocks they have found 1 in 4.47 blocks meaning that Coinotron is finding 22% of blocks. As Coinotron over the last 24 hours has had 9GH on FRC we can speculate that the total current hashpower for FRC is currently around 40GH hopefully putting the difficulty even lower for the next change.

So my calculations put it on 13 days till next difficulty adjustment (29th jan) ... and difficulty should be in the 3,000-4,000 mark??

this kind of thing makes me REALLY glad that TRC has very quick difficulty readjustment. if it takes 1-2 months for a coin to come back down after a drastic difficulty overshoot it can be quite a damper on miner interest in the coin.. while if its only 2-4 hours then its meh.. just wait a little bit.

+1 TRC is there ready when you are.