[Poll] How long until $1000 per 1 Bitcoin?

[Piper67]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

[jl2012]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.

No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.

[evolve]

You use a different mode of transferring the information (dial-up modem vs dsl/broadband) and different programs (compuserve or whatever vs gmail) and receive the information on a different type of machine (pc vs pc, laptop, and phones) using the same basic method (email protocol)


So a similar, but more advanced (read: different) version of the technology of what you used before?

Yeah, I said that.

[evolve]

You said yourself that Bitcoin isn't the problem.

It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.

[Piper67]

You use a different mode of transferring the information (dial-up modem vs dsl/broadband) and different programs (compuserve or whatever vs gmail) and receive the information on a different type of machine (pc vs pc, laptop, and phones) using the same basic method (email protocol)


So a similar, but more advanced (read: different) version of the technology of what you used before?

Yeah, I said that.

The irony, of course, is that your name is evolve. OK, it's like this... the email protocol is like the Bitcoin protocol. Eudora (google it) is like the Bitcoin client. Gmail is like blockchain.info. The modem, believe it or not, is like the modem. The iPhone is like the iPhone and the Android is like the Android... oh, and a metaphor is like a simile (just love that one).

The underlying protocol remains the same, the technologies built on that protocol have become more user friendly and ridiculously more popular (if Bitcoin in 2020 has grown anywhere near the same extent as email has since the 90's, you'll be talking to my people's people).

But I suspect you are not amenable to reasoned arguments here, so I'll drop it now, because some of us have work to do. Cheers.

[evolve]

But I suspect you are not amenable to reasoned arguments here, so I'll drop it now, because some of us have work to do. Cheers.

I'm being quite reasonable; the problem is that your analogy sucks (and I was trying to show you that without being blunt about it).

You guys can get mad if you want to, but I'm simply being pragmatic.  I still trade BTC (albeit a small amount that I wouldn't miss if it was lost) and I still participate in the community....I just don't hold the lofty (and in my opinion, naive) point of view that BTC will be worth 1000's or that it will ever have usage on a large scale or replace the dollar or any other crazy thing I hear on this forum.

[notme]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

No.  The user doesn't care about imaginary software.  The failure is usable software that eliminates the complexity.  It's coming.

[tvbcof]

I've always said that if/when Bitcoin finds it legs, it will have almost nothing to do with Bitcoin and almost everything to do with more general global monetary systems breaking down.

To me, the question of this poll is the same thing as asking how long before there is a crisis in confidence in current global monetary regimes which leaves people scrambling for whatever exits exist.  I voted 'within a year' because 5 years ago I thought this would happen by 2012 and we are already past that.  I actually I probably should have been more conservative and gone with 2-5 since our leaders do seem to have some room to hold things together yet.

Actually, I see $1000/BTC as in the range which could be reached absent other issues.  The 'big values' are much larger.  I think that $1000/BTC probably is achievable through 'organic' growth in the 2-5 year timeframe but would certainly not bet on it.

[tvbcof]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:

hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com

BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.

[notme]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS.
...

I'm very much using the same email protocol, though now it comes in the guise of a gmail account, which gets routed through my cellular network to my iPhone. But yes, ultimately, it's still email.

I suspect that if/when BTC values reach their potential, the people who will be able to capitalize will be familiar with the following form of e-mail addressing:

hubhost!middlehost!edgehost!user@uucpgateway.somedomain.example.com

BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.

From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler

[tvbcof]

BTW, I do still have a modem.  The only other option is satellite, and I do use that when it is working although the modem is actually preferable for ssh sessions (barely...Viasat isn't bad these days in terms of latency.)  At my office in town I have cable thankfully.

From his usage I assumed he meant this type of modem: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Acoustic_coupler

In '89 that would probably be the case I suppose.  My first modem was 300 baud, but was not acoustic.  It was out-of-date and I got it for next to nothing, but quickly updated to a blazing fast 2400 baud unit.  Acoustic modems could be handy though in end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenarios though perhaps.

As I was tapping this out, I just got to wondering if anyone has tried doing genuine acoustic transmissions using old-time big-ass satellite dishes or something of that nature, and if so, what kind of range is possible.  At least such a thing would stay off the electromagnetic spectra.

[molecular]

Never.

This experiment will die long before that ever happens.

which one? USD or Bitcoin?

[molecular]

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

use your imagination!

[molecular]

Hey Evolve, you know how I used email back in 1989? I had to physically connect my telephone receiver to a device called a "modem", then dial up the number of a thing called a BBS. I then had to input a string of commands into my computer that would connect me to the BBS and start up a programme called a "client", through which I was able to "download" my emails. I would then disconnect from the BBS, write my replies, then start the whole process up again and tell my "client" to send the replies. I would do this, on average, once a day... normally in the evenings. And I thought it rocked! But at the time, most of my friends and family around the world thought it was too cumbersome.

Now they email from their iPhones and Blackberries... so again, the only failure here is a failure of the imagination.

Are you still using a dial up modem? No. You use a similar, but different technology.

A similar cryptocurrency may eventually replace bitcoin, but BTC will almost certainly be gone before any pipe dreams of BTC reaching $1000 come true.

No matter it is a dial up modem or optical fiber, all data is still transmitted with IPv4 standard of 1980s. Bitcoin is a communication protocol, it could be re-implemented in any new hardware and software in the future.

He probably didn't use TCP/IP, though. From the sound of it he used https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FidoNet mail. I'm not sure, though.

[molecular]

You said yourself that Bitcoin isn't the problem.

It isn't. I listed the problems already, and don't think they will resolve themselves. Some may be solved eventually, but I think the scammers, hackers, and black market sellers (amongst other things) are going to kill BTC before it ever gets off of the ground.

you main two points are:

• bad usability
• scammers will run bitcoin to the ground

usability: people use excel just fine and many are even able to setup an ebay auction. I don't think using blockchain.info wallet or android bitcoin wallets is very hard. I agree usability can and will be increased, but that's definitely not what can make bitcoin fail.

scammers will run bitcoin to the ground: If that was likely, it would already have happened. Look at all the shit that has gone down, yet the community is growing... and learning. It's a social problem. With a non-chargebackable currency, you have to do business slightly differently and the technologies do support this (wot and stuff) are currently being evolved.

I call BS, you just want cheap coins again.

[gimme_bottles]

Lol...after a year and a half (if not more) of watching an alarming amount of hacks and scams (alongside a community with an insane amount of infighting), I cant see this whole thing taking off outside of a few bubbles here and there.

you can also get scammed if you invest usd.
it is not the bitcoin system that generates those scams, it is scammers. the problem with scams in the bitcoin world is that lots of people (mostly newbies) still think that you can only win with bitcoins, no matter what you do with them. if they would apply the same investing strategy in the "real" (usd) world, they would already be bancrupt.

by example, you would not give your usd to a anonymous guy offering you like 100% return per year. why did people give their btc to pirate then?

think about it.

[johnyj]

Why count in dollar's form?

Even if FED find out that this thing will become a huge bubble and start to tighten the USD money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with other currencies. Even if all the central banks in the world start to tighten the money supply, they cannot stop people from trading in BTC with real goods and assets, it is like a blackhole which can suck in anything valueable, if the demand is enough high

[molecular]

here's another poll: How long before 1 BTC = 1 oz of gold

[tbcoin]

we need new poll: How long until a Fishful of dollars!!! per 1 Bitcoin?

JK, nice poll

[BlackBison]

Right now, we have an internet "currency" that is difficult (or at least cumbersome) for the average person to figure out.  It is hard to move money in and out of exchanges, and history tells us using the exchanges is risky, since many of them have closed up and ran off with peoples money. OTC trades are even more risky.

Once you have your BTC, you have to take ridiculous measures to ensure your wallet isn't somehow hacked.  You can skip this step, but doing that has cost people on this forum a metric shit-ton of money..  

Once you take these security measures, you can finally spend your BTC, if you so chose....but wait! what are you going to buy? The btc market mostly consist of virtual items, black/grey market items, and trinkets...and if you are lucky, the seller will value his "rep" more than your money, and actually sends you the item (or doesn't scam you with a fake item) because there is no way to chargeback.... you could go with escrow, but thats another extra step that shouldn't be needed just to by a bitcoin keychain or whatever.

Add in a poisonous community that scams each other at every given turn (just look at all the ponzis and other scams), and you can see why I dont think this will go anywhere.




I think its cumbersome nature and main userbase aren't going to be changed anytime soon, and certainly not before scammers run this shit into the ground.

Good reasoning I agree.. but the market has already proven you dead wrong. The Bitcoin 'financial economy' suffered an almost total catastrophic collapse last summer (GLBSE sudden shutdown, Bitcoinica shutdown, pirate ponzi destroying almost the entire main lending and finance infrastructure (almost all the trusted forum lenders were embroiled in the fiasco somehow) and many of the entrepreneurial types leaving the bitcoin economy altogether).

Despite this calamity the price has staged a huge rally in the last 8 months.. sure you can say this is a 'bubble' or temporary due to the wordpress announcement etc etc, just like all the well reasoned and highly educated academics said the DOW couldn't go higher than 2000, 3000, 4000 etc in the 90s. It eventually ran up to 14,000. The market proved them wrong and in the end that is all that matters. The price is the ultimate arbiter.

EDIT: I am not saying the price is going to $1000. I am just pointing out that your theoretical argument has not stood up in the real world.