Bitcoin volatility still quiet as BTCUSD holds low $400-410 support

[bitcoinmarkets]

web version: http://www.bitcoinfuturesguide.com/bitcoin-blog/bitcoin-volatility-still-quiet-as-btcusd-holding-low-400-support



In the graph above you can see volatility in bitcoin is near its lows for the past 3 months. Visit our volatility index page to see more charts from BitMEX on multiple timeframes.

Bitcoin has a tendency to not be flat for too long before it makes a big move. To look at it from a different point of view, let's see the 1-day candles from the OKCoin weekly futures contract with bollinger bands to illustrate:



The tightness of the outter bands indicates that bitcoin has been quiet for too long and that it is overdue or a move. Look at the past instances of tight bands, for instance back in mid-February when it had a big move up.

However on the lower time frames we are in a brief downtrend, so this time the move may be in the opposite direction, see the 4-hour on Huobi of BTCCNY:



Note how price has struggled to make any meaningful moves upwards. Instead it is making lower highs and starting to point downward on the moving averages.

In the futures market we see slightly bearish sentiment from the spreads from OKCoin:



Both Weekly and Biweekly are in a slight discount, so they are below Fair Value, which should be positive bitcoin, and this is a bearflag overall. However, it may be a great buying opportunity for the Quarterlies if you are bullish. The low premium would begin to rise more than the spot price increase if it were to suddenly have a burst upward.

At CryptoFacilities, where they have further contract horizons, we can see that the forward curve is quite flat, all the way out to December the price is barely at fair value:



There's not much news going forward. Ethereum is still moving around, chopping in the 0.025-0.028 range, which may have some effect, it's worth keeping an eye on.

There has not been much talk about Classic or any network issues, so there could be a stealth bull play here even though sentiment is kind of negative.

If you are concerned about the price dropping, don't forget to just sell futures on CryptoFacilities or BitMEX and earn bitcoin as the price drops to help offset the fiat value reduction.

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[Pab]

and that is very good longer time will be traded like higher price increase can be Bitcoin needs to be very strong to pass 520$ level and to keep price above 520$ after So patience

[maokoto]

Very good analysis. Thanks. I have the feeling that it will go up to 420 at least soon... it has happened several times these past months.

[talks_cheep]

We're going to be in the narrow price range of 380 to 420 until July 2016. After the halving, we will see a marked drop to 300 as people realize that the halving does not result in price rocketing to the moon. There will be panic selling as noobs sell their overbought bitcoins. By September, price will recover and by December we will see price return to 500-600.

[shintosai]

We're going to be in the narrow price range of 380 to 420 until July 2016. After the halving, we will see a marked drop to 300 as people realize that the halving does not result in price rocketing to the moon. There will be panic selling as noobs sell their overbought bitcoins. By September, price will recover and by December we will see price return to 500-600.

Oh I'm gonna wait for this to happen mate, I'll be keeping all my coins I hope this analysis of yours will come true, I don't really know what is happening and how this will come but fluctuation of btc really getting me more curious.

[r0ach]

We're going to be in the narrow price range of 380 to 420 until July 2016. After the halving, we will see a marked drop to 300 as people realize that the halving does not result in price rocketing to the moon. There will be panic selling as noobs sell their overbought bitcoins. By September, price will recover and by December we will see price return to 500-600.

^Look at this scumbag's post history.  Every single post is "omg sell everything price is going to $1 tomorrow".  It's a zionist banking shill spam poster account.  He's been wrong 90% of the time as well since the price has usually been going up while he's posting this garbage.  He was even spamming price would crash at $230 and it went to $500.

[Yakamoto]

We're going to be in the narrow price range of 380 to 420 until July 2016. After the halving, we will see a marked drop to 300 as people realize that the halving does not result in price rocketing to the moon. There will be panic selling as noobs sell their overbought bitcoins. By September, price will recover and by December we will see price return to 500-600.

^Look at this scumbag's post history.  Every single post is "omg sell everything price is going to $1 tomorrow".  It's a zionist banking shill spam poster account.  He's been wrong 90% of the time as well since the price has usually been going up while he's posting this garbage.  He was even spamming price would crash at $230 and it went to $500.

Right, this makes sense now. I always thought he was spamming posts just because he wants to, but a shill would make more sense.

The volatility will continue to remain low for a while, in my opinion. There is nothing to catapult the price one way or another anytime soon.

[1Referee]

We're going to be in the narrow price range of 380 to 420 until July 2016. After the halving, we will see a marked drop to 300 as people realize that the halving does not result in price rocketing to the moon. There will be panic selling as noobs sell their overbought bitcoins. By September, price will recover and by December we will see price return to 500-600.

^Look at this scumbag's post history.  Every single post is "omg sell everything price is going to $1 tomorrow".  It's a zionist banking shill spam poster account.  He's been wrong 90% of the time as well since the price has usually been going up while he's posting this garbage.  He was even spamming price would crash at $230 and it went to $500.

Right, this makes sense now. I always thought he was spamming posts just because he wants to, but a shill would make more sense.

The volatility will continue to remain low for a while, in my opinion. There is nothing to catapult the price one way or another anytime soon.

The volatility will never go away if the coin spread stays like it is now in combination with the low market cap of Bitcoin. Beside that, I don't complain about the volatility as it allows me to make good profits. I think at this point no one should complain.

[romero121]

Volatility is the nature of bitcoin. For a long time the value of bitcoin is sticking around the $420 tag without much fluctuations. The same took place at the price around $385 and increased suddenly. So can expect a price jump soon.